Månad: augusti 2020

Utgivarna: Vid en sökning på sajten av namnet Kissinger får man 35 träffar, vilket indikerar mannens betydelse vad gäller krig och fred. Här en av de senaste inläggen. Nedan återges en intressant sammanställning av citat från Kissinger, vilka alla bör ha intresse för vår läsekrets.

This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by eminent U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself and America’s policies toward the country.

Mr. Kissinger served as assistant to the president for national security affairs in 1969-1975 and as secretary of state in 1973-1977. He has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and the Presidential Medal of Honor. He has held various government advisory positions and is chairman of Kissinger Associates, an international consulting firm.

Mr. Kissinger—who has the ear of both President Trump and President Putin—advocates the normalization of the U.S.-Russian relationship, believing that “the goal should be to find a diplomacy to integrate Russia into a world order which leaves scope for cooperation.”

The quotes below are divided into categories similar to those in Russia Matters’ news and analysis digests, reflecting the most pertinent topic areas for U.S.-Russian relations broadly and for drivers of the two countries’ policies toward one another. Läs artikel

Slutreplik DN Debatt 29 juli

En krissituation i Norden eller i vårt närområde kommer omedelbart att påverka samtliga länder i regionen, inklusive Nato och EU. Händer det något i Baltikum eller i något av de nordiska länderna så ändras omedelbart de strategiska förhållandena och balanserna. Av den orsaken är de samarbeten som vi nu bygger så viktiga. Ytterst syftar de till att lägga grunden för möjligheten till gemensam krishantering.

Det är övningsverksamheten, interoperabiliteten, informationsutbytet och övriga förberedelser som lägger grunden till detta. Återkommande signaler om att vi gemensamt står bakom respekten för internationell lag och rätt är viktiga. Regeringen är tydlig kring vikten av våra samarbeten och dess fördjupning. Vårt syfte är att bidra till sådan stabilitet att konflikter ock kriser kan undvikas.

Vi arbetar från båda dessa perspektiv med praktiska åtgärder. Moderaterna tycks enbart vara fokuserade på Nato-medlemskap. Nato är en stor och från europeiskt perspektiv säkerhetspolitiskt stabiliserande organisation. Men den innehåller många länder med starkt skiftande perspektiv och intressen.

Det svensk-finska samarbetet med Nato sker från ett militärt alliansfritt perspektiv.Främst fokuserar det på säkerheten i norra Europa. Den nära dialogen baserar sig på tydliga nationella intressen som också tydliggörs av vårt värdlandsavtal som förbereder för stöd och hjälp i en krissituation. Läs artikel

Today—six months before the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) will expire if not extended—members of the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) released a statement headlined “Advancing Strategic Stability and Reducing Nuclear Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region.”  With an impressive group of 47 signatories from 16 countries across the Euro-Atlantic region, the statement fills an important space at a crucial moment—proposing that leaders of states with nuclear weapons should reinforce the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and that the United States and Russia should preserve and extend New START for five years. Together, these two steps would clearly communicate that despite current tensions, leaders recognize their responsibility to work together to reduce nuclear dangers and enhance strategic stability. Läs uttalandet

The US takes it for granted that Europe is “NATO’s territory” and anyone who buys arms would get them from a NATO member, almost certainly the US. Serbia was always a special case, however, buying from Russia and getting warned all the time by the US to stop buying from Russia.

Since NATO hasn’t been on the best of terms with Serbia, however, and has gone to war with them in recent memory, it is perhaps a bit much to imagine they can count on Serbia as customers. China, as a much lower cost provider, is popular across much of the world.

Buying arms from the US is usually about paying for future favors from the US, and Serbia’s relatively small economy means they are more price sensitive than most in Europe. It probably doesn’t mean China is going to spread sales in the Balkans, however, with so many of the nations there now NATO members. Läs artikel

Hva vil vi med Forsvaret? Skal det være i stand til å forhindre krig, og dersom krigen likevel kommer, forsvare Norge mot væpnet angrep fra Russland? Eller skal det bare være et politisk instrument til bruk i fredstid for å håndheve norsk suverenitet og ivareta norske interesser, og for å delta i internasjonale operasjoner, mens det er NATOs og USAs oppgave å forsvare oss i tilfelle krig?

I henhold til stortingsdokumentene skal Forsvaret gjøre alt dette. Avskrekking av angrep på Norge, og forsvar dersom avskrekkingen slår feil, skal imidlertid løses innenfor rammen av NATO.

Dagens forsvar har en viss håndhevingskapasitet, men er ikke i stand til å ivareta troverdig avskrekking og forsvar. Med Regjeringens langtidsplan vil det heller ikke være i stand til det i framtida. Årsaken er blant annet mangel på utholdenhet i form av volum, utilstrekkelig forråd av ammunisjon og reservedeler, og et logistikkapparat som ikke er dimensjonert for oppgaven. […]

Regjeringens langtidsplan for Forsvaret, og Stortingets behandling av den, viser etter mitt skjønn at det ikke er mulig å etablere og opprettholde et troverdig norsk forsvar innenfor politisk realiserbare økonomiske rammer, om man legger dagens forsvarskonsept med vekt på teknologi fremfor utdanning, trening og øving til grunn. Vi må nå bestemme oss for hva vi vil med Forsvaret. Tiden for en ny forsvarskommisjon er overmoden. Läs artikel

Operation Nanook, the Canadian military’s annual northern sovereignty exercise, is taking on a distinct NATO look this year with the participation of three other allies, one of which is not an Arctic nation.

Five warships, a replenishment vessel and U.S. coast guard cutter are slated to take part in the three-week drill, which senior American and Canadian commanders said Monday was designed to test not only their ability to operate together in the harsh environment but also their ”basic war-fighting” skills.

Canada is sending the frigate HMCS Ville de Quebec, the coastal defence vessel HMCS Glace Bay and the supply ship MV Asterix. Joining them will be Danish frigate HDMS Triton, the French coastal defence ship FS Fulmar, the U.S. coast guard cutter Tahoma and the brand-new American guided missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner.

Canada, Denmark and the U.S. are all Arctic nations, but France is not. Läs artikel

We, the Parliament of the World’s Religions, Charter for Compassion, Religions for Peace and the United Religions Initiative have come together, for the first time to issue The Hiroshima/Nagasaki Accord which will be delivered on August 6, 2020, acknowledging the 75th Anniversary of the atomic bombings of both Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Now more than ever we feel urgency concerning the alarming actions of the nuclear nations. Walking away from safeguarding Treaties. Stepping back from verification. Modernizing nuclear weapons. Abandoning serious negotiations. And threatening to begin testing again. These trends constitute a calamitous threat to the entire world. So, we are speaking up together and looking for others to ally with us. It’s is up to each of us to take positive action that will reverse our race toward nuclear annihilation. Läs deklarationen

Uppropet kan läsas här.

Sverige deltar sedan 2015 med militär styrka (upp till 70 soldater) i den USA-ledda koalitionen Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) i Irak. Styrkan skall kunna verka från alla baser i Irak med tillägget ”där säkerheten så medger”.  Den förutsättningen finns knappast idag.

Efter att USA dragit sig ur överenskommelsen 2018 om Irans kärnenergiprogram som enhälligt beslutades av FN:s säkerhetsråd har spänningen mellan Iran och USA ökat dramatiskt. Situationen förvärrades då USA 2018 trappade upp sin kampanj med ”maximalt tryck” mot Iran och genomförde den 3 januari 2020 den utomlagliga avrättningen av den högt uppsatte iranske generalen Qasem Soleimani genom en drönarattack på irakiskt territorium

Iran å sin sida stöder olika miliser i Irak som genomför attacker mot utländska trupper. Attackerna har intensifierats sedan avrättningen av Soleimani.

Situationen i Irak oroar många länder i regionen och i Europa. Frankrikes utrikesminister Jean-Yves Le Drian uppmanade den 16 juli, efter ett möte med den irakiska utrikesministern Fuad Hussein, Iraks regering att ”frigöra sig” från ”kokande regionala spänningar” och markerade därmed att Frankrike motsätter sig Irans och USA:s självsvåldiga attacker på irakiskt territorium. Läs artikel

France’s former African colonies are celebrating 60 years of independence. But France’s influence remains all pervasive and critics say it is time that Africans cut the umbilical cord and put an end to Françafrique. […]

But more importantly, the political system in many of the countries was introduced by France. ”Shortly before independence, France decided to abolish the parliamentary system in some countries like Ivory Coast and introduce a presidential regime in which all territories and powers are in the hands of the head of state,” Yamb told DW. The reason being that in this way, ”only one person with all the power needs to be manipulated,” she said. Françafrique, as the French influence in the former colonies is called, remains a fact, particularly galling to the young, whose resentment of the former colonial power is growing. […]

France also has a considerable military presence in Africa. It leads the Barkhane operation against Islamist groups in the Sahel region, in which around 5,100 soldiers from several countries are involved. According to the US daily ”New York Times”, in 2007, almost half of France’s 12,000 peacekeeping troops were deployed to Africa. These troops have both military and advisory capabilities as well as supporting and stabilizing the regimes of the respective countries. Läs artikel

Non-compliance and disputes between Russia and the US resulted in the US exiting the Open Skies Treaty. If Russia withdraws in response, European countries will lose an important source of intelligence.

The Open Skies Treaty (OST), which was signed in 1992 and came into force in 2002, is one of the arms control treaties signed at the end of the Cold War. After the US exited in May, the treaty has been ratified by 33 countries from North America and Europe, including Russia.

The treaty allows signatories to conduct an observation flight with an aircraft equipped with sensors over the territory of another State Party with 72-hour notice. Flights can be used to monitor military instalments and manoeuvres, which reduces tensions by making the military activities of signatories more open.

In a trust-building measure, officers of both parties can be on board the flight and the imagery is made available to other State Parties. The equipment is also certified by State Parties. In total, over 1,500 flights have been conducted since the treaty came into force. Finland also conducts flights every year, particularly to Russia. Läs artikel