Månad: december 2020

På DN:s ledarsida argumenterades nyligen för Natos betydelse för Europas försvar. Där framfördes åsikten att en Europaarmé inom överskådlig tid inte skulle klara att hålla gränsen utan USA:s hjälp och kärnvapenparaply.

En sådan åsikt förskräcker. Ryssland utgör förvisso ett hot med sitt aggressiva beteende, men kärnvapen gör oss inte tryggare.

Det ska stå helt klart att Sverige inte har säkerhetsgarantier från Nato och USA och att Sverige inte heller står under något lands kärnvapenparaply. Detta borde försvarsminister Peter Hultqvist (S) tydligt markera.

Kärnvapen är ett fruktansvärt och inhumant vapen som inte ger säkerhet, utan tvärtom ökar risken för krig och massförstörelse. På några sekunder skulle miljoner människor dö och tiotals miljoner bli skadade vid ett kärnvapenkrig i Europa. Läs insändare

Probably the most iconic moment during the negotiations on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (or “nuclear ban treaty”) was the gathering of a dozen allied ambassadors standing around U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the corridors of the U.N. building in New York, protesting against the ongoing negotiations. While nuclear-armed states and NATO allies remain opposed to the treaty, the tone is softening, and at least two NATO allies are breaking the consensus. […]

Behind the scenes though, nuclear-armed states actually seem to care about the treaty. In an unclassified letter of the United States to its NATO allies on Oct. 17, 2016, the United States warned that “the effects of a nuclear weapons ban treaty could be wide ranging.” The United States also called on all allies and partners “to vote against negotiations on a nuclear weapons treaty ban, not to merely abstain. In addition, if negotiations do commence, we ask allies and partners to refrain from joining them.” Once the United States started to witness a growing number of ratifications of the treaty, it sent a letter to all state parties in October this year, urging them to withdraw their ratification. This clearly indicates that the United States (and the other nuclear-armed states hiding behind the United States) are uncomfortable with the idea of the treaty entering into force. […]

The first real crack in the wall with respect to the treaty was the presence of the Netherlands at the 2017 treaty negotiations in New York, after having abstained on the October 2016 U.N. General Assembly resolution. Why did the Netherlands abstain and attend the negotiations, in both cases as the only NATO member state, despite the explicit demand by the United States not to do so? The Dutch government acted on the instructions of its parliament. […]

The Belgian government agreement of Sept. 30, 2020, which was a compromise among four political families (split up into seven political parties due to the state structure), contains the following sentence: Belgium will play a proactive role in the 2021 NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] Review Conference and, together with its European NATO allies, it will examine how to strengthen the multilateral non-proliferation framework and how the U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons can give new impetus to multilateral nuclear disarmament [emphasis added]. Läs artikel

An armored, several multinational battalion tactical groups and other strike units of NATO’s forces have been pulled close to the land borders near the Kaliningrad region.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet will be reinforced with a motorized infantry division in response to NATO forces’ build-up near Russian borders in the westernmost Kaliningrad Region, Baltic Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Nosatov said on Monday.

An armored, several multinational battalion tactical groups and other strike units of NATO’s forces have been pulled close to the land borders of the Russian enclave, the admiral said.

”In response to this threat, the Armed Forces’ command has to take measures in response. As one of such measures, a full-strength motorized infantry division will be formed to make part of the Baltic Fleet’s army corps. The new formation will comprise motor rifle and artillery regiments and a separate tank regiment,” the commander said in an interview with the Defense Ministry’s Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper. Läs artikel

Ärade veteraner från våra krig, män och kvinnor i krigstida generationer,

Världen har varit i extraordinär turbulens det senaste året på grund av coronaviruspandemin. Det har påverkat oss alla, i synnerhet er krigsveteraner och äldre generationer. Det har inte varit möjligt att genomföra möten med dina nära och kära eller bekanta under normala arrangemang, och minneshögtider har fått skjutas upp eller ställas in. I den här situationen vill jag betona, att ert arbete för fosterlandet kommer att bli ihågkommet.

I enlighet med sina uppgifter upprätthåller Försvarsmakten en stark och trovärdig försvarsförmåga så att Finland inte återigen hamnar i en sådan situation som ni fick uppleva. Med militär kapacitet och förmåga kommer vi att förhindra kriser och visa alla parter att Finland är redo och kan försvara sitt land.

Utvecklingen av värnplikten har under senare tid varit mycket i offentligheten. Försvarsmakten bär för sin del ansvaret för att värnplikten utvecklas genom att följa med sin tid. Värnplikten kopplar dagens ungdomar till veteranernas arv. Militärtjänsten stärker de ungas förståelse av de krigstida kraven och ökar deras uppskattning för er. Dessutom lär sig de unga att i tjänstgöringen uppfylla sin uppgift och ta hänsyn till andra människor – enligt den för er bekanta principen, att man inte lämnar sin kompis.

Jag hälsar våra krigsveteraner, lottor samt de krigstida generationerna för hela Försvarsmaktens personals del. Jag önskar er och era anhöriga en glad självständighetsdag. Läs pressmeddelande

Relations between NATO member states and Russia are complex and troubled. It will take concerted efforts by both sides to move their interaction to a more positive plane. […]

Over the past four months, we have joined with more than thirty other security experts, including retired diplomats and military officers from the United States, Russia and other European countries, for detailed discussions on how NATO and Russia might reduce the risk of inadvertent conflict. We came together because of concern that the prospects of such a clash have grown alarmingly high. […]

The situation cries out for more dialogue and re-establishing political and military contacts. For example, more frequent meetings between the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee could address ways to lower tensions and the possibility of military misunderstanding.

Those exchanges could lead to new arrangements building on the 1972 U.S.-Soviet (Russia) Agreement on Prevention of Incidents at Sea to regulate how NATO and Russian warships and aircraft operate when near one another. The sides’ sailors and airmen are professionals and will follow procedures designed to avoid actions that the other side might misinterpret as hostile.

In the Baltic region, NATO and Russian ground forces face one another. Arrangements based on the 1989 U.S.-Soviet Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities Agreement could increase confidence by requiring that military units behave with particular caution when in border areas. There could be provisions setting lines of contact in case one side’s ambiguous movements appeared threatening to the other. Läs artikel

With dozens of experts from academic institutions and think tanks working in Russia, NATO nations, and neutral countries, GCSP experts took part in the elaboration of a set of recommendations to revive strategic dialogue and apply urgent confidence- and security-building measures between Russia and NATO. This document has been signed by some 145 personalities. Among them are 16 former ministers of international affairs and defence, 24 ambassadors, 27 retired Generals and Admirals, well-known experts from 55 universities, research institutes and centres. […]

1. Responding to demand for knowledge on up-to-date current geopolitical, technological and legal developments as well as for advice, education and dialogue from and among key stakeholders. This is done, for instance, by building capacities worldwide on implementing the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) or the Biological Weapons Convention or training officials from the Middle East and North Africa on arms control.
2. Developing partnerships with, and a high visibility among, key stakeholders (government representatives, both in Geneva and in capitals, civil society organisations, academia) to promote cross-institutional and multi-stakeholder approaches. In that respect, regular Track-II meetings are held and proposals formulated on a WMD-free Zone in the Middle East. Läs uppropet

[…] Ingen av scenariene jeg har omtalt ovenfor innebærer omfattende klassiske trefninger i Norge på bataljons- eller brigade-nivå mellom mekanisert infanteri støttet av stridsvogner og fly i interdict-rollen. Og det er vanskelig å forestille seg i hva slags situasjon det skulle bli aktuelt. Det er derfor grunn til å tenke nytt når det gjelder hvordan den norske Hæren bør være sammensatt.

Instinktivt heller jeg til det syn at vi bør satse på en lett hær med stor grad av mobilitet utenfor vei, og som ikke utgjør noe brukbart mål for fiendens langtrekkende presisjonsvåpen. Jeg er derfor skeptisk til at Forsvaret skal bruke store ressurser på nye stridsvogner til Hæren. Med mobilitet utenfor vei mener jeg både taktisk mobilitet på bakken, sjømobilitet og luftmobilitet. Det er derfor viktig at Hæren får tilført helikoptre, og at de tre forsvarsgrenene i fellesskap utvikler et moderne konsept for taktisk forflytning av hæravdelinger over sjø.

Erfaringer fra krigen i Nagorno Karabakh antyder at bevæpnede droner er et effektivt motmiddel mot stridsvogner og pansrede personellkjøretøyer, og krigen i Syria har vist hvor effektivt droner anvendt i ISTAR rollen er, i kombinasjon med moderne artilleri. Droner er også et effektivt motmiddel mot fiendens bakkebaserte luftvern, SEAD. Kort sagt: droner bør bli et prioritert satsingsområde i Forsvaret, sammen med evne til å bekjempe droner, blant annet ved hjelp av elektronisk krigføring. Også erfaringer fra krigene i Kaukasus og Midtøsten har demonstrert betydningen av elektronisk krigføring og evne til strid i cyber-domenet. Dette bør være et annet prioritert satsingsområde. Krigen i Nagorno Karabakh har for øvrig nok en gang bekreftet at uten soldater på bakken, er det vanskelig å følge opp og konsolidere resultatene av vellykte missil-, fly- eller droneangrep. Läs artikel

Sales of arms and military services by the sector’s largest 25 companies totalled US$361 billion in 2019, 8.5 per cent more than in 2018. The largest companies have a geographically diverse international presence. This is according to new data released today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). […]

In 2019 the top five arms companies were all based in the United States: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and General Dynamics. These five together registered $166 billion in annual arms sales. In total, 12 US companies appear in the top 25 for 2019, accounting for 61 per cent of the combined arms sales of the top 25.

For the first time, a Middle Eastern firm appears in the top 25 ranking. EDGE, based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was created in 2019 from the merger of more than 25 smaller companies. It ranks at number 22 and accounted for 1.3 per cent of total arms sales of the top 25. […]

The top 25 also includes four Chinese companies. Three are in the top 10: Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC; ranked 6th), China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC; ranked 8th) and China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO; ranked 9th). The combined revenue of the four Chinese companies in the top 25—which also include China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC; ranked 24th)—grew by 4.8 per cent between 2018 and 2019.

Reflecting on the rise in the arms sales of Chinese companies, SIPRI Senior Researcher Nan Tian said: ‘Chinese arms companies are benefiting from military modernization programmes for the People’s Liberation Army.’

The revenues of the two Russian companies in the top 25—Almaz-Antey and United Shipbuilding—both decreased between 2018 and 2019, by a combined total of $634 million. A third Russian company, United Aircraft, lost $1.3 billion in sales and dropped out of the top 25 in 2019.

Alexandra Kuimova, Researcher at SIPRI, said: ‘Domestic competition and reduced government spending on fleet modernization were two of the main challenges for United Shipbuilding in 2019.’

After the USA, China accounted for the second largest share of 2019 arms sales by the top 25 arms companies, at 16 per cent. The six West European companies together accounted for 18 per cent. The two Russian companies in the ranking accounted for 3.9 per cent. Läs artikel

Republikens president Sauli Niinistö diskuterade med lyssnare och svarade på frågor i Yle Radio 1 i dag. […]

President Sauli Niinistö svarade också på en fråga om ett eventuellt Natomedlemskap och varför Finland inte fattat något beslut om saken.

Niinistö upprepade vad han sagt tidigare om vad han anser att Finlands säkerhet baserar sig på, nämligen ett starkt försvar så att det blir dyrt och oattraktivt att försöka komma hit, samarbete med bland annat Sverige, goda relationer till Ryssland (enligt presidenten kan vi inte glömma bort vår stora granne) samt internationellt regelverk.

– Jag tror på dessa, i historien har det nog inte funnits medlemsansökningar då kriser har brutit ut. […]

Om vad gäller Rysslands president Vladimir Putin och USA:s avgående president Donald Trump:

– De är också bara människor, jag kan inte minnas att jag skulle ha träffat någon ond människa.

Och till Putin sade Niinistö under ett av deras telefonsamtal:

– Varje självständigt land maximerar sin egen säkerhet, och det förstod han förstås. Putin är redo att tala också om för honom svåra saker, svarade Niinistö på en fråga om hurudan relation han har till Putin. Läs artikel

[…] A change of tactics by a country that previously has intended not to openly provoke the Russian bear. Or recognition of a dramatically changed security picture. Views are mixed.

“It is definitively not a good idea unless Norwegian authorities only want to keep a strong relationship with one of the powers, the United States,” says Lieutenant Colonel Tormod Heier when asked about Norway’s sailing with NATO ships east of Varanger. Heier is professor at the Norwegian Defense College. He argues that Norway can’t keep a relationship with only the United States, but is forced to seek good relations with Russia as well.

“This is due to Norway’s unique geopolitical position, only 40 to 120 kilometers from some of Russia’s most valuable nuclear forces. Norwegian authorities, therefore, need to balance between almost incompatible great power expectations: to be a good ally in the west while also being a good neighbor in the east,” professor Heier says. […]

Tormod Heier says it is hard to know what is propaganda and what is a real Russian security concern. “It is important to note, however, that in all propaganda is a small core of truth.” He recommends Norwegian authorities to be cautious about shrugging off Russian concerns.

“Norwegian security interests rests upon a safe and secure Russia; that is our unique destiny,” Heier says and points to the high north where Norwegian and Russian security interests are “intimately entwined.” […]

Julie Wilhelmsen with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) is an expert on Russian foreign and security policies. She says the intensity in Russian statements on Norwegian defense policy has escalated in recent years. “In particular since the 2018 Trident Juncture exercise.” Participating in the exercise was USS Harry S. Truman, the first time since the 1980ies an American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier sailed inside the Arctic Circle near the Lofoten archipelago.

“While Norway contends that these are small changes and that the Norwegian policy of balance between deterrence and reassurance are unchanged, Russia insists that the changes are threatening and in breach with former policies,” Julie Wilhelmsen explains.

“Russian rhetoric on Norway is part of a broader pattern found in general foreign policy discourse in recent years focusing aggressively on increasing US military installations and presence closer to Russia’s borders anywhere, in Georgia to the south or in the Far East,” she says. Läs artikel

– Kinas forsvarsbudsjett er bare en sjettedel av Natos. Utviklingen av Kina har ført til framskritt og økt velstand i hele verden, og vi har ingen intensjon om å være en trussel for andre land.

Det skriver den kinesiske ambassaden til Norge til Forsvarets forum.

I uttalelsen som er signert ambassaden, vises det videre til at Nato bør legge vekk «kaldkrigsmentaliteten» og heller se på Kina som en samarbeidspartner. […]

– Kina deler ikke våre verdier. De respekterer ikke grunnleggende menneskerettigheter og forsøker å presse andre land.

Det sa generalsekretær i Nato Jens Stoltenberg på en pressekonferanse mandag.

Han fortalte at Kinas fremvekst og rolle i verden ville være et tema for utenriksministrene i Nato-land da de møttes denne uka. Samtidig gjentok Stoltenberg at Kina ikke er Natos motstander. Det siste har også Kinas ambassade til Norge bitt seg merke i.

– Vi la merke til at generalsekretæren understreket at Kina ikke er en motstander. Kinas utvikling gir Nato-land muligheter. Kina er villig til å inngå i en dialog med Nato på bakgrunn av likeverd og gjensidig respekt for å bidra positivt for å opprettholde fred og stabilitet i verden, skriver ambassaden. Läs intervjun