Månad: oktober 2021

Ett av Sveriges mest legendariska regementen I 13 Dalregementet återuppstod i lördags på årsdagen av segern vid Leipzig 1642. Dalkarlarna stod ren av för bildandet av Sverige när de slöt upp bakom Gustav Wasa och tågade mot Stockholm för att kasta ut dansken (tvi!). Det nya regementet ska utbilda och krigsplacera två lätta skyttebataljoner, dvs klassiskt bilburet infanteri, som ska säkra den amerikanska marinkårens uppmarschvägar från sina förplacerade förråd i bergrummen i Tröndelagen. […]

Det finns en expeditionsbrigad för marinkåren stående med utrustning i bergrummen i Tröndelagen, och denna kan snabbt flyttas till hamnarna längs södra Norrlandskusten, som t ex Gävle och Sundsvall, för att därifrån skeppas till Baltikum. Eller för den delen genom att säkra södra Sverige och Gotland ge understöd till möjligheterna att med större förband undsätta Baltikum. Läs artikel

Republikens president Sauli Niinistö reser till Rysslands huvudstad Moskva för att träffa sin ryske kollega Vladimir Putin på fredag.

Presidenterna ska under sitt möte diskutera bland annat Kreml, den bilaterala relationen mellan Finland och Ryssland och internationella frågor.

Presidenterna har inte mötts under hela coronaepidemin. Senast de träffades var i augusti 2019 då Putin besökte Helsingfors. Läs pressmeddelande

Den 23 oktober 2021 hände något som får anses vara unikt för svensk säkerhetspolitik. Ett transportflygplan landade in på en vägbas på Gotland och ur planet rullade en M142 HIMARS, alltså en lastbil med raketartilleri på flaket. Det unika i händelsen? Varken flygplanet eller lastbilen tillhörde Sverige utan USA och amerikanska förband. Händelsen var ett moment i den samövning som genomfördes mellan svenska och amerikanska förband på ön under perioden. […]

Även om personal från det operativa kommunikationsförbandet fanns på plats för att dokumentera såväl momentet som efterföljande intervjuer med Försvarsmaktens insatschef och chefen för amerikanska specialförbandsledningen i Europa (USSOCEUR) har Försvarsmaktens egen kommunicering kring händelsen varit minst sagt svag. Det ska sägas att det även publicerades en kortare film på youtube med sekvenser från såväl Gotland som Vidsel. […]

Först ut var USSOCEUR som på såväl twitter som instagram och facebook började i en jämn takt publicera bilder och filmklipp om vad de gjorde på Gotland. Vilket därefter togs vid av den amerikanska Chargé d’Affaires som pingade in såväl Försvarsmakten som Wisconsins National Guard i sin tweet. Men på svensk planhalva förblev det tyst. Läs artikel

Iran’s delay in rejoining talks in Vienna to revive the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement has fueled speculation that the new Ebrahim Raisi government has lost interest in the accord. Its deepened mistrust, optimism about its China option, and confidence that it can weather American sanctions have shaped this conclusion, leaving Washington with no choice but to publicly threaten its own shift to more coercion under an undefined Plan B, the narrative goes.

But new information obtained by Responsible Statecraft reveals that that impasse is not because of an Iranian sense of immunity to pressure, but largely because President Joe Biden refused to commit to keeping sanctions lifted on Iran for the rest of his term, even if Iran rejoins and complies with the nuclear deal.

A crucial turning point in the negotiations occurred earlier in May of this year. The Iranians had insisted on legally binding commitments that the United States would respect its signature and not re-quit the JCPOA, were it to be revived. Though the U.S. team found the Iranian demand understandable, it insisted it could not bind the hands of the next administration, nor guarantee that a future administration hostile to the JCPOA wouldn’t again abandon it. Läs artikel

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov talks very enthusiastic about Europe’s northernmost cross-border political- and practical cooperation.

“It goes without saying that in the harsh climate and environment of the north, economic activity can only be carried out through joint efforts and exchange of experience,” Lavrov says ahead of the Barents Euro-Arctic Council meeting taking place in Tromsø, northern Norway on Monday and Tuesday.

The press service of Russia’s Foreign Ministry confirms in an email to the Barents Observer that Lavrov will come to the meeting in-person. […]

Sweden, the host of the Barents Council 2019-meeting in Umeå, is the only of the four countries in northernmost Europe that will not be represented with its foreign minister in Tromsø.

Instead of going to Tromsø, Foreign Minister Ann Linde will host a seminar on “Security Challenges in the Baltic Region” in Stockholm. The seminar will be attended by members of the North Atlantic Council, the principal political decision-making body within NATO. Läs artikel

Den europeiske union (EU) ga torsdag USA, Canada og Norge fullmakt til å delta i det europeiske prosjektet. Fremskynde mobiliseringen av grensestyrker Og militært utstyr til lands, sjø og luft.

EUs utenriksministre godkjente i dag en forespørsel til Washington, Canberra og Oslo om at Nederland, prosjektkoordinator, skal delta i programmet Permanent Structural Cooperation (PESCO).

PESCO 2017 ble opprettet av tjuefem EU-land – Spania blant dem Samarbeide på forsvarsfeltet etter Brexit. Og USAs tidligere president Donald Trump har insistert på at hans NATO-partnere øker offentlige utgifter på dette området. Läs artikel

The United States and China will not go to war over Taiwan. China is not engaging in provocative actions leading toward an invasion. So why the fuss?

I’d prefer to let the argument speak for itself, but my background is relevant. As a U.S. diplomat, I served in Taiwan, Beijing, and Hong Kong, as well as Korea and Japan, and speak a bit of all their languages. Many of my former colleagues, who managed their careers better, now hold senior positions in the Department of State’s China and East Asian bureaucracies. I certainly don’t speak for them, but I do speak to them.

America has always been China’s fickle partner. A WWII ally, the U.S. backed away in 1949 after Mao took power. Then, in the midst of the Cold War, Nixon “opened” China and the place was remade into a friendly bulwark against the Soviets. In 1979 the U.S. diplomatically recognized Beijing and unrecognized Taipei. The U.S. and China then grew into significant trading partners until sometime during the Obama years, when China, without a clear precipitating event, morphed again into an adversary (the U.S. called it a pivot toward Asia). Trump and Biden have since upgraded China to a direct threat. Biden has said, “On my watch China will not achieve its goal to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world.”

Along the way China has always stayed pretty much the same. It’s our fear of the same China that changes. Läs artikel

“It goes without saying that in the harsh climate and environment of the north, economic activity can only be carried out through joint efforts and exchange of experience,” Sergey Lavrov says ahead of the Barents Euro-Arctic Council meeting taking place in Tromsø, northern Norway on Monday and Tuesday.

The press service of Russia’s Foreign Ministry confirms in an email to the Barents Observer that Lavrov will come to the meeting in-person.

A lengthy interview with Lavrov about the role of the Barents cooperation is posted on the Russian foreign ministry’s portal.

Bi-annual ministerial meetings in the Council rotate between the four member countries Russia, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Barents cross-border regional cooperation was initiated in January 1993, a year after the collapse of the Soviet Union. […]

Sweden, the host of the Barents Council 2019-meeting in Umeå, is the only of the four countries in northernmost Europe that will not be represented with its foreign minister in Tromsø.

Instead of going to Tromsø, Foreign Minister Ann Linde will host a seminar on “Security Challenges in the Baltic Region” in Stockholm. The seminar will be attended by members of the North Atlantic Council, the principal political decision-making body within NATO. Läs artikel

Forsvarsminister Odd Roger Enoksen (Sp) måtte ta spørsmål og kritikk fra flere Nato-allierte for Norges nye atomvåpen-linje. Etter møtet sier han at det er bekymring for at andre medlemsland skal følge Norges eksempel.

Støre-regjeringen har altså bestemt seg for å sende observatører til FNs konferanse om atomvåpen-forbudet, foreløpig som eneste Nato-land.

Nato har i flere uttalelser avvist dette sporet og argumentert for at det ikke fremmer nedrustning. USA var det første landet som reagerte på dette punktet i Ap/Sp-regjeringens plattform fra Hurdal og ba om en forklaring fra den nye regjeringen.

Dermed kom også det nye norske synet på dagsorden da Natos forsvarsministere diskuterte alliansens kjernefysiske strategi i den interne «Nuclear Planning Group» fredag formiddag. […]

Overfor VG fastholder Odd Roger Enoksen at den nye regjeringen vil sende observatører til konferansen i Wien i januar, for de som har sluttet seg til atomvåpenforbudet. Läs artikel

Are China and the United States doomed to engage in a Cold War-like rivalry? There is a growing belief in the U.S. that a second Cold War is inevitable whether we want one or not, but it is not yet too late to choose a different path for Washington that steers clear of a contest for supremacy in East Asia that we do not need to have.

It is the embrace of this imagined “inevitability” that is fueling the rivalry and leading both countries towards an avoidable conflict. […]

George Kennan studied this question of the inevitability of conflict closely in his history of the creation of the Franco-Russian alliance before WWI, The Fateful Alliance. As he put it, “The assumption of the inevitability of a war is allowed to rest exclusively on the fact that ‘we’ and ‘they’ are both preparing so intensively for it. No other reason is needed for the acceptance of its necessity.”

Kennan wrote these words in the shadow of U.S.-Soviet rivalry and the possibility of nuclear war, and he was concerned that another great power conflagration would be far more catastrophic than the world wars. Luckily, the first Cold War ended without that disaster unfolding, but it was this good luck that has blinded us to the dangers of courting new great power conflict through rivalry with another nuclear-armed state. Having avoided a war with the Soviets that was also once believed to be inevitable, the U.S. is in danger of rushing into a contest with China that likewise risks potentially devastating armed conflict. Läs artikel

Även i år deltar Finland integrerat i luftförsvaret av Sverige som ett led i det fördjupade försvarssamarbetet. Finska stridsflyg medverkar både som kvalificerad motståndare men även integrerat i det svenska nationella försvaret tillsammans med svenska stridsflygdivisioner. […]

Tidigare års flygvapenövningar har vi använt våra egna förband och flygplan för att spela en angripare. Genom att Finland deltar så frigörs svenska resurser så vi kan öva på det vi ska – försvara Sverige mot en kvalificerad angripare. Läs pressmeddelande