Månad: november 2021

Rysslandshistorikern Kristian Gerner sammanfattar den ryska utrikespolitiska traditionen på ett markant sätt. Ryssland känner enbart två traditioner – Kazan eller Manchu. Man annekterar, dominerar eller trakasserar en granne. Eller man aktar ett land för likvärdigt – USA och Kina.

Ryssland har fler grannar – inalles 14 – än något annat land. Och Ryssland har problem med alla, med undantag av Finland. Grannskapet med Kina tillhör Manchu-kategorin, vilket inte utestänger problem. Ryssland har godkänt de forna sovjetrepublikernas självständighet men inte deras suveränitet, med undantag av EU- och Natomedlemmarna Estland, Lettland och Litauen, vilket dock inte utesluter trakasserier. […]

I rapporten ”Konsekvenserna av ett eventuellt finskt Natomedlemskap” från 2016 som Utrikesministeriet hade beställt talas det om ”det geopolitiska dilemma som en oförutsägbar granne innebär” för Finland. I all korthet betyder det att det inte finns någon lösning till det finska säkerhetsproblemet som Ryssland utgör. Ett dilemma är ett olösbart problem, som enbart kan hanteras men aldrig slutgiltigt lösas. Det kräver bland annat en öppen, men samtidigt förtrolig dialog med Kreml. Finland kan aldrig stå med ryggen mot Ryssland. Säkerhetspolitik är varken juridik eller ingenjörsvetenskap. Läs artikel

I løpet av de fire første månedene i 2022 er Norge vertskap for to multinasjonale øvelser.

Den første, «Brilliant Jump», er en forflytningsøvelse for NATO sin hurtige reaksjonsstyrke, Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) til Sør-Norge. Den andre og største er «Cold Response», der over 30.000 soldater fra en rekke ulike allierte nasjoner vil komme og trene under norsk kommando på norsk jord.

Betydningen av øvelsen var ett av hovedtemaene under NATO-general Vollmer sitt norgesbesøk 10. til 12. november.

­– Vi er godt forberedt for disse øvelsene. NATO Response Force er klare til å deployere til Norge. Dette er et sterkt signal om hvordan vi jobber sammen, sier general Vollmer. Läs artikel

It was in late October the Norwegian frigate “KNM Thor Heyerdahl” sailed the waters of Isfjorden, including a visit to Longyearbyen, the main settlement on the Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic.

The 1920 Svalbard Treaty does not put a ban on Norwegian military presence at Svalbard but limits the use of the archipelago for possible war purposes. Russia is one of 46 signature parties to the treaty.

In the statement posted on the Foreign Ministry’s portal, Maria Zakharova expressed dissatisfaction with decisions made by the Norwegians extending several laws on ports and fairways at Svalbard. This, she said, “implies the use of the archipelago’s infrastructure in the military planning of the defense of Norway, including the reception of reinforcement from NATO allies.” Läs artikel

Introduction: The Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) collaborates with nations near the Arctic Circle on APAN.

As the Arctic climate continues to change, arctic area nations are working together to address security concerns. The Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) is a semi-annual gathering usually attended by twelve nations focused on improving communications and maritime domain awareness in the Arctic Circle. The twelve nations include: Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Challenges: Enable all nations concerned with Arctic Circle area security and transportation to communicate and respond to issues with up-to-date information.

As the ice cover in the Arctic decreases, and the Arctic environment experiences increased ship and tourist traffic, opportunities arise to improve human safety and environmental security in the region.  The twelve nations currently involved have different internet resources and are separated by significant geographic distances. Läs informationen

14 senior military leaders from 11 European and North American nations discussed High North security issues at the annual Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) Wednesday this week.

It is currently the only military forum focused on the Arctic region’s unique challenging security dynamics and architecture, and the full range of military capabilities and cooperation, a press release from the US European Command states.

“With profound changes occurring in the Arctic, the potential risks for new conflicts remain very real. We remain resolute in our commitment to regional security in this all-important region,” said U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Charles Miller, U.S. European Command’s director of plans, policy, strategy and capabilities. Läs artikel

Russia on Thursday dismissed French concerns about a potential deal between Mali and a Russian private military contractor and said it planned to continue supplying Mali with weapons, military hardware and ammunition.

Diplomatic and security sources have told Reuters that Mali’s military junta is close to recruiting mercenaries from the Russia Wagner Group- a worry for France, which has thousands of troops fighting Islamist militants in West Africa. […]

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov set out an uncompromising line ahead of talks in Paris on Friday at which France has said it will raise the issue.

”Regarding the nervousness that the French and some other Western officials are showing about the reports of the Mali government’s plans to seek the services of a private military company from the Russian Federation … this is the exclusive competence of the legitimate government of Mali,” he said. Läs artikel

The United States and its NATO allies are busily arming Ukraine and engaging in other actions that encourage the leaders in Kiev to believe that they have strong Western backing in their confrontation with Russia and Russian-backed separatists. The conflict between the Ukrainian government and separatist forces in the Donbass region, which has remained at a low simmer in recent years, thanks to the fragile Minsk agreements, shows unmistakable signs of heating up. That development is exacerbating already dangerous tensions between Kiev and Moscow. There is growing speculation that Russia might even launch an invasion of Ukraine.

Western leaders are pursuing a reckless strategy that is generating increasingly pointed warnings from Kremlin officials. On two occasions since early April, Russia also has made ominous military deployments near its border with Ukraine. Shortly before the earlier episode, the Biden administration had announced a new $125 million arms sale to Ukraine. Although the transaction was put on hold temporarily in June, $60 million of that package was delivered during U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to Kiev in late October. Läs artikel

Historien gjentar seg aldri. Men noe ligner. I hvert fall på overflata. Som den politiske konstellasjonen bak regjeringa i 2021 – og 1935.

Norge anno 2021: Arbeiderpartiet og Senterpartiet danner regjering. Det er en koalisjon av gamle kjente. Senterpartiet inntar Forsvarsdepartementet.
Norge anno 1935: Arbeiderpartiet danner regjering med støtte fra Bondepartiet, Senterpartiets forløper. Bondepartiet inntar Forsvarsdepartementet.

Bondepartiet og Arbeiderpartiet står milevis fra hverandre i norsk politikk på 1920- og 30-tallet. Ikke desto mindre: I 1935 sørger Bondepartiet for at Arbeiderpartiet kan danne regjering. Partiene inngår kriseforliket. By og land skal gå hand i hand. Og i 2021, tas hele landet igjen i bruk!

Statsminister Johan Nygaardsvold utpeker sin forsvarsminister. Det er en bombe: Oscar Torp! Det hører til norgeshistoriens ironier at det er først nå, under antimilitaristen Torp fra det antimilitaristiske Arbeiderpartiet, at Forsvaret, omsider, rustes opp. I lys av nazistenes frammarsj i Tyskland; inn mot storkrigen. De borgerlige partiene har latt Forsvaret forvitre etter den første verdenskrigen. Läs artikel

Practicing with anti-tank mines is nothing new for the Norwegian Army, but never so close to the border to Russia as this week. The sound of blast is not only loud enough to be heard by Russian guards patrolling the border to  NATO-member Norway. It is also a clear message of power build-up in the north.

While the Garrison of Sør-Varanger (GSV) for decades after the end of the Cold War mainly focused its activities on border policing, the last few years have seen a significant strengthening of manpower and armament. A recently established ranger troop is tasked to ensure Norwegian sovereignty. Any foe will be met by military force.

“The ability to lay minefields is part of our capacity,” says Chief of the garrison, Lieutenant Colonel Michael Rozmara, as his engineering squad makes ready down deep in the snow-covered former iron-ore mine outside Kirkenes, Arctic Norway. Läs artikel

he European Union’s foreign policy chief warned the bloc on Wednesday that it must agree an ambitious doctrine as the basis for joint military action abroad, including with a deployable crisis force.

Josep Borrell told reporters his first draft of the ”Strategic Compass” – the closest thing the EU could have to a military doctrine and akin to NATO’s ”Strategic Concept” that sets out alliance goals – was crucial to security.

”Europe is in danger,” Borrell said in the forewordof the full strategy document that has been sent to the EU’s 27 states for debate. ”We need to have rapid deployment capabilities,” he also told reporters.

One idea is to have a 5,000-strong EU crisis force, Borrell said, stressing though that the U.S.-led NATO alliance remains primarily responsible for Europe’s collective defence. Läs artikel