Månad: juli 2022

Russia’s five-month-old war in Ukraine has given NATO a reinvigorated sense of purpose, illustrated most visibly during its summit meeting last week. The alliance rolled out several initiatives to enhance deterrence on its eastern flank, formally began the process of admitting Finland and Sweden as member states, and published its first Strategic Concept document in over a decade. NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg lauded the gathering as a demonstration of the alliance’s “unity and resolve,” while President Joe Biden declared it as “history-making.”

While there are legitimate concerns regarding China’s territorial claims, power projection capabilities, and pace of military modernization, it’s unclear why NATO should be responsible for countering Beijing in the Indo-Pacific and what capacities the vast majority of its members—the United States, Britain, and France aside—bring to this major undertaking.  Can an alliance which has struggled to maintain a state of readiness on the European continent extend its mission to East Asia? It took a Russian invasion of a sovereign country for Germany, one of NATO’s wealthiest member states, to finally begin a process of rearmament after decades of skimping on its defense budget. If Russia is as dangerous as NATO claims, then the last thing NATO should be doing is simultaneously seeking to contain China. […]

Last week’s summit wasn’t a transformational moment for NATO as much as it was a missed opportunity. Instead of encouraging Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense, commensurate with its $17 trillion GDP, about ten times Russia’s, the Biden administration chose to double down on the status quo and deploy thousands of additional American troops to the continent. The Strategic Concept could have codified a clear, detailed, comprehensive framework for safeguarding Europe’s security more effectively. What we got instead was a word salad. Läs artikel

Läs också kommentar på den här sajten till Natos strategiska koncept.

The war in Ukraine and the faltering negotiations to revive the nuclear deal with Iran have reminded the world how important arms control and nonproliferation are for international peace and security. They have also underscored how difficult it will be to negotiate any lasting arms control and nonproliferation agreements for the foreseeable future.

The Russian government said last week that it was open to new talks on strategic stability and nonproliferation, but Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has all but destroyed the Western political support for arms control negotiations when those negotiations are needed most. The mutual benefits of a restored nuclear deal are obvious to almost everyone, but the politics of Iran policy in the United States make the long-term survival of any agreement with Iran unlikely at best.

The future of arms control and nonproliferation seems dim right now, but this is why the U.S. and its allies must recommit themselves to both, and reject the easy temptations of more military buildups and unnecessary wars.

While the taboo against nuclear use has not yet been broken, the danger of escalation in Ukraine has created legitimate fear that the Russian government might resort to using nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the emphasis on “great power competition” in the U.S. and the willingness in some quarters to contemplate direct conflict with nuclear-armed states are bringing the U.S. closer to the brink of nuclear war than it has been for decades. Läs artikel

While the world’s attention is focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, halfway around the world in the Pacific Ocean, U.S. and NATO confrontation with China and North Korea is increasing dramatically. […]

Adding to the tensions in the region, NATO countries and “partners” are joining the massive Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) naval war exercises. Held every two years since 1971, 2022 RIMPAC will feature 38 ships from 26 countries, four submarines, 170 aircraft, and 25,000 military personnel practicing naval war maneuvers in the Hawaiian waters from June 29 to August 4.  Additionally, ground units from nine countries will come ashore on the islands of Hawai’i in amphibious landings.

Forty-five percent of RIMPAC participants are either in NATO or have NATO ties. Eight of the 26 RIMPAC countries are NATO members—Canada, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The four other participating countries are Asia-Pacific “partners” of NATO: Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. Läs artikel

[…] At the moment there are rather contradictory statements about Sweden and Finland joining NATO. A number of political analysts claim that this doesn’t present a serious threat to us [Russia], some believe that we need to strengthen our borders, to the point of deploying tactical nuclear arms there. What, in your opinion, does their entry into the alliance signify for us?

The situation is quite serious. For instance, the Finns decided to buy the American F-35 fighter-jets. With modern weapons on board, it’s a formidable military force, which poses a danger even to our 5th generation aircraft, which we [the Russian army] now have in very limited quantities.

I believe the Finns, probably, have largely perfected protocols for suppressing our air defense systems. Thus, it’s not surprising that the possibility of using tactical nuclear arms in this region is becoming increasingly relevant to us. […]

After the expansion of NATO to Finland and Sweden, the Baltic Sea will become practically an internal sea of the alliance. What are the military threats of this for us?

Yes, correctly spotted. Since the 1990s the Baltic sea has been largely demilitarized. Most countries, including Russia, kept token contingents of their naval forces there. Now a naval and missile arms race will start in the Baltic.

Worst of all, with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, St. Petersburg is turned into a front-line city. This puts the city under a risk of an attack, as the modern arms of Alliance vessels dive them the capability of delivering a devastating blow to the city. In order to prevent this, we’ll have to seriously strengthen the air and missile defense system there. Läs artikel

“I’ve been interested, in some ways, in the history of losers,” Justus Doenecke tells The American Conservative.

Doenecke, who taught at New College of Florida from 1969 to 2005, made his reputation in the historical profession through an open-minded reappraisal of arguably the most prominent group of American losers in the twentieth century: the pre-World War II anti-interventionists. These were the middle Americans who saw Franklin Roosevelt’s foreign policy as the path to bankruptcy, chronic overseas war, and presidential dictatorship.

It’s a story he was practically born to narrate.

“I grew up in Brooklyn. People always think of New York as very liberal, but there are pockets of extreme conservatives, in fact you would call them reactionaries,” Doenecke explained. “My father was a building estimator, and he hated Roosevelt. He didn’t like the regulations of the New Deal, he didn’t like trade unions. You know, ‘son of a bitch ruined America.’ And he had all these conspiracy theories. Every single book that came out trying to prove that Franklin Roosevelt planned the Pearl Harbor attack, my father owned.” Läs artikel

Finland’s Parliament on Thursday passed amended legislation on border security that allows for the closure of crossing points with Russia amid fears that Moscow could choose to send large numbers of migrants to the frontier.

The move by lawmakers came just two days after NATO’s 30 members signed formal accession protocols for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance — an outcome that has angered Russia. The two Nordic nations’ membership bids were approved at a NATO summit at the end of June in Madrid and several alliance members have already moved to ratify their accession.

The amendments approved by Finnish lawmakers will give the center-left government led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin wider powers to restrict border traffic in exceptional situations, particularly on the 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia, the longest of any European Union member.

The changes would also allow Finland, a nation of 5.5 million, to build barriers and fences along the border with Russia if needed. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto is due to sign the amendments into law on Friday. Läs artikel

Delelinjeavtalen mellom Norge og Russland ble undertegnet i 2010 og opprettet en grenselinje mellom de to landene i Barentshavet.

Ifølge det statlige russiske nyhetsbyrået RIA vil presidenten for Dumaen, Vjatsjeslav Volodin, at nasjonalforsamlingen skal vurdere å skrote avtalen. […]

Nupi-forsker og Russland-ekspert Julie Wilhelmsen sier til NTB at det er all mulig grunn til å ta denne typen trusler alvorlig, særlig gitt det russiske handlingsmønsteret den siste tiden.

– I første omgang er det en slags trussel. Men hvis vi skal resonnere ut ifra det mønsteret russiske myndigheter har operert med de siste årene, er det ofte slik at slike trusler faktisk følges opp, sier hun.

Hun tolker det russiske utspillet som nok et tegn på at Russland i økende grad ser på Norge som en del av det kollektive Vesten, snarere enn en selvstendig pragmatisk aktør. Dette fordi Norge har innført omfattende sanksjoner mot Russland på lik linje med resten av Nato og Vesten.

– Handlinger på norsk side tolkes ikke i beste mening, det tolkes bare inn som små komponenter i en større vestlig fiendtlig offensiv mot Russland, sier Wilhelmsen. Läs artikel

A new tsunami of triumphalism is sweeping across Western capitals, particularly in Washington and London. The illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine has been thwarted. The Ukrainians are putting up a glorious fight to defend their freedom. A new solidarity has been forged between America and Europe. The joint Western sanctions have crippled and isolated the Russian economy. Surely China is quaking in its boots at the thought of similar sanctions being imposed on it.

A Norwegian transporter last weekend drove the two containers from Storskog checkpoint and about 800 km along the road to Tromsø. From there, a cargo boat sails the goods north to Svalbard, national broadcaster NRK reports.

Spokesperson with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ane Haavardsdatter Lunde, said there has been a dialogue with Russian authorities to find a solution.

“We have been in contact with the embassy in Oslo via the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and via the Governor of Svalbard. We are glad that this case has been resolved in a good way. We hope that the Russians are too,” she said to NRK.

The transportation amounts to only about 20 tons, but the Russian truck drivers that came to the Norwegian border from Murmansk in June were not allowed to enter. Like other European nations, Norway has closed its seaports and land border for Russian cargo traffic under the EU’s 5th package of sanctions. Läs artikel