Månad: juli 2022

The European Union needs a new strategy on the war in Ukraine as sanctions against Moscow have not worked, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Saturday.

”A new strategy is needed which should focus peace talks and drafting a good peace proposal…instead of winning the war,” Orban said in a speech in Romania.

Orban, reelected for a fourth consecutive term in April, reiterated that Hungary – a NATO member – would stay out of the war in neighbouring Ukraine. He is facing his toughest challenge since taking power in 2010, with inflation in double digits, a weak forint and EU funds still held up amid a dispute with Brussels over democratic standards.

Orban has said before that Hungary is unwilling to support EU embargoes or limitations on Russian gas imports as that would undermine its economy, which is about 85% reliant on Russian gas imports.

He said in his speech that the Western strategy on Ukraine has been built on four pillars – that Ukraine can win a war against Russia with NATO weapons, that sanctions would weaken Russia and destabilise its leadership, that sanctions would hurt Russia more than Europe, and that the world would line up in support of Europe.

Orban said this strategy has failed as governments in Europe are collapsing ”like dominoes”, energy prices have surged and a new strategy was needed now. Läs artikel

Despite repeated assurances from President Biden and other Western leaders that “the toughest economic sanctions in history” would cripple Russia’s economy and starve its war machine, that hasn’t happened. Russia’s current account, which measures global trade in goods and services, was strong in the second quarter of this year when its trade surplus rose to a record $70.1 billion. The ruble, too, has exhibited remarkable resiliency, ranking as the strongest performing currency so far this year, rising to its highest level against the euro since 2015 and making major gains against the dollar.

What accounts for Putin’s bulging coffers? The simple answer: high commodity prices and Russia’s continued ability to export oil, gas, grain, and even gold to non-Western countries. Läs artikel

Den s.k. ”Nato debatten” har varit pinsam från första början. De som är emot anslutningen har till mest bråkat inbördes och inte lyckats dölja att en hel del av ”fredsrörelserna” har en tveksam inställning till Rysslands imperialism.

Analyserna har varit föråldrade. De enda på nejsidan som lyckats med något är de aktivister som rättmätigt har problem med Turkiets inflytande över Sverige. Hur långt kommer regeringen gå för att blidka sultanen i Ankara?

Som det ser ut just nu kommer Peter Hultqvist att offras. Vi avsätter alltså vår försvarsminister för att kunna gå med i Nato. […]

Krigshotet framställs som akut när Ryssland i realiteten är helt uppbunden i Ukraina. Något som borde skapa tid för strategiska överväganden. Särskilt när vår egen grundlag och yttrandefrihet utmanas.

Det är ju den vi vill skydda.

Jag saknar försvarsperspektivet. Tanken om ett folkförsvar är djupt förankrat medborgarna. Nu ställer vi om hela vår försvarsmakt utan att ens reflektera över innehållet.

Några frågeställningar: Till vilken grad kan vi fortfarande bestämma över vårt nationella försvar? Hur många arbeten skapar Nato försvaret? Kan vi anpassa detta Nato försvar för att t.ex. rädda arbeten, investera i inlandet, bygga infrastruktur? Vilken politisk makt har vi för att se till så att Nato försvaret säkerställer civilförsvarets tillgångar, skyddsrum, försvarsmaterial, sjukvård?

Vi kommer aldrig få tillbaka invasionsförsvaret, men vilka lärdomar kan vi dra? Anslutningen till Nato saknar fortfarande en risk och konsekvensanalys. […]

Effekten blir att Nato framstår som en übervariant av försvarsmakt. Låga kostnader. Mycket pang pang. Det är en barnslig inställning till militära frågor.

Fokus borde vara på ett långsiktigt territoriellt försvar baserat på hela samhällets styrkor – det innebär också en skattediskussion om hur vi ska finansiera totalförsvaret. Läs ledaren

Greece has recently been deliberately eroding terms and conditions of the Lausanne Peace Treaty, Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday. President Erdogan made the remarks in a video message on the 99th anniversary of Lausanne Peace Treaty.

”The terms and conditions of Lausanne Peace Treaty, particularly rights of Turkish minority, have recently been deliberately eroded by Greece,” he said.

”It is not possible for our country to accept this situation, which is incompatible with the principle of good neighbourly relations and loyalty to the treaty,” he added.

Türkiye solidifies its active position in regional and global issues as it takes firm step towards 2023, the 100th anniversary of Lausanne Peace Treaty and foundation of the Republic of Türkiye, he added. The treaty was signed on July 24, 1923 after the Turkish victory in the War of Independence.

The Spokesperson of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also slammed Greece for its discriminatory policies against Turkish minority in the country. Sharing facts about the Turkish minority in Western Thrace, Tanju Bilgic in a tweet he said: No kindergartens; no schools for children under 9; only 2 high schools; insufficient buildings;  old textbooks. Läs artikel

“We Hungarians are the only ones to have shed blood in that war, while those criticising us have not,” PM Viktor Orbán said yesterday in the 31st Bálványos summer university in Central Romania. “Therefore Hungary has the right, as a neighbouring country, to say that peace is the only solution. Peace is the only solution to save lives and the only antidote to wartime inflation and the economic crisis triggered by the war.” Orbán highlighted that Hungarians were the only ones besides the Ukrainians who had “shed blood” in the war, citing official data indicating that 86 Hungarians have died in the conflict so far. Because of this, he added, Hungary had a right to say as a neighbouring country that peace was the only solution. […]

Hungary is a member of NATO and acts under the assumption “that Russia will never attack the much stronger alliance”, he said. Orban added, however, that Russia had found itself in a “delicate situation” after the EU had decided to impose severe economic sanctions on it and send weapons to Ukraine. “So, although not in a legal sense, but they are practically part of this conflict, which poses a huge risk,” he said. Orbán said Russia had made it clear that it wanted it guaranteed that Ukraine would never join NATO, insisting that the war would not have broken out “if Donald Trump were the US president and Angela Merkel the German chancellor. Läs artikel

Lettland har inlett en diskussion med Sverige om samarbete inom Nato, bland annat om att få svenska soldater till Lettland.

”Jag tror att det vore i Sveriges intresse också”, säger Lettlands försvarsminister Artis Pabriks till Ekot.

Sveriges överbefälhavare Micael Bydén har tidigare sagt till Dagens Nyheter att svenska soldater i Baltikum vore ”rätt naturligt” när Sverige går med i Nato. Läs artikel

Just got back from seeing the new Top Gun movie. I must be one of the last Americans in the world to have seen this movie, which has been out for a while, and is a big hit. It was about what I expected: a movie about Tom Cruise, men, and technology. Despite some truly fantastic flight and air combat scenes, the movie landed with a thud, at least with me. On the walk back home, I tried to figure out why.

The first Top Gun film came out in 1986, when the US was in full flush of the Reagan-era patriotic revival. We were still in the Cold War, but Gorbachev had arrived on the scene, and it looked like we might win. It is hard to overstate the sense of confidence that America had then — a confidence that was most vividly expressed through hallowing the military. This had a lot to do with exorcising the demons of our Vietnam failure, and the Iran debacle. Tom Cruise was 24 years old in 1986; he was the face of America’s brash new sense of itself.

Tom Cruise is 60 today. True, he looks damn good for 60, but he is still puffy and soft around the edges, and doesn’t have the swagger he used to have. And you know, he looks like America today, too. This, I think, accounts for why the new Top Gun is so tinny. It’s harder to relate to, given the wars and other events of the past twenty years. Maybe it’s just me, but sitting in the movie theater tonight watching the film, I enjoyed it on a surface level, but I’m no longer the audience for this shiny, shallow war movie. Läs recensionen

Ryssland bekräftar att landet låg bakom lördagens attack mot hamnen i staden Odessa i södra Ukraina på lördagen. Moskva hävdar att målet varit ”militär infrastruktur”.

”Kalibr-robotar förstörde militär infrastruktur i Odessas hamn, genom ett precisionsangrepp”, uppger Maria Zacharova, talesperson för det ryska utrikesdepartementet. Närmare bestämt slogs en ukrainsk patrullbåt ut i angreppet, enligt Zacharova.

Attacken skedde dagen efter det att Moskva och Kiev nådde ett avtal som ska möjliggöra export av miljontals ton spannmål som blockerats av kriget. Hamnen i Odessa spelar en stor roll för exporten över Svarta havet.

Enligt fredagens avtal förbinder sig Ryssland att inte angripa hamnar medan spannmål transporteras. Ukraina uppger att spannmål funnits i förvar i hamnen vid tidpunkten för attacken, som dock inte tycks ha träffat något livsmedelslager.

Moskva gav ingen officiell kommentar av attacken under lördagen. Men Turkiet, som tillsammans med FN hjälpte till att medla fram överenskommelsen om spannmålet, uppgav att Ryssland försäkrat att man inte legat bakom angreppet. Läs artikel

The European Union needs a new strategy on the war in Ukraine as punitive sanctions against Moscow have not worked, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said. “A new strategy is needed which should focus peace talks and drafting a good peace proposal … instead of winning the war,” Orban said in a speech in Romania on Saturday.

Orban, reelected for a fourth consecutive term in April, reiterated that Hungary – a NATO member – would stay out of the war in neighbouring Ukraine. He is facing his toughest challenge since taking power in 2010, with inflation in double digits, a weak forint currency and EU funds still held up amid a dispute with Brussels about democratic standards.

Orban has said before that Hungary is unwilling to support EU embargoes or limitations on Russian gas imports as that would undermine its economy, which relies heavily on Russian gas imports.[…]

He said Ukraine will never win the war this way “quite simply because the Russian army has assymetrical dominance”. Orban called for Russia and the United States to hold negotiations to bring about an end to the war. He said “only Russian-US talks can put an end to the conflict because Russia wants security guarantees” only Washington can give. Läs artikel

Hamnen i Odessa har skadats av explosioner. Ukrainas militär uppger att två ryska raketer slagit ner i staden. Omvärlden fördömer angreppet. ”Visar Rysslands förakt för internationell rätt”, twittrar Sveriges utrikesminister Ann Linde.

Türkiye said it was ”concerned” by Russian strikes on the Ukrainian port of Odessa on July 22, a day after Moscow and Kyiv penned a deal sponsored by Ankara and the U.N. to resume grain exports.

”The fact that an incident like this happened after the agreement we made yesterday… really makes us concerned,” Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said.

’Russia denies any attack on Odessa,’ the minister added.

Russian missiles struck Ukraine’s key Black Sea port of Odessa on July 23, Ukrainian officials said.

Two cruise missiles hit terminal infrastructure, regional authorities said on social media, casting a shadow over the landmark agreement hammered out over months of negotiations aimed at relieving a global food crisis caused by stalled deliveries that sent wheat prices tumbling. Läs artikel