Månad: augusti 2022

Regardless of who wins the Ukrainian war, the United States will be the strategic loser. Russia will build closer relations with China and other countries on the Eurasian continent, including India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states. It will turn irrevocably away from European democracies and Washington. Just as President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger played the “China card” to isolate the Soviet Union during the Cold War, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will play their cards in a bid to contain U.S. global leadership.

Knowing that it can no longer keep Europe as its top energy customer, Moscow has logically moved to grow its fossil fuels sales with Asia, notably China and India. Since the Ukraine invasion, Russia has become China’s top oil provider, replacing Saudi Arabia. It is true that in the short to medium term, transfer capacity will limit how much more fossil fuels Russia can sell to China. Russia currently has just one overland oil route to China, the ESPO pipeline. The only gas pipeline currently in operation is Power of Siberia. Pipeline sales of both oil and gas are supplemented by seaborne routes to mainland China. In the years ahead, China and Russia will doubtlessly make substantial investments to expand oil and gas transmission between the two countries, better enabling Russia to be the primary supplier of fossil fuels to China. The Chinese will likely be able to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel shipments from the Middle East which must pass through vulnerable naval choke points such as the Malacca Straits. […]

Russia has also greatly increased its energy business with India since the Ukraine invasion. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, “India has been the main buyer of the cargoes out of the Atlantic that Europe doesn’t want anymore.” Before invading Ukraine, India bought almost no oil from Russia. Now it is importing over 760,000 barrels a day. Increases in Russian fossil fuel sales to India will be detrimental to efforts by the United States, Australia, and Japan to continue to draw Delhi into a closer orbit with democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Läs artikel

Ett ryskt bogseringsfartyg observerades under lördagen av den svenska marinen utanför Skånes sydkust. Fartyget har enligt uppgift slutdestination Archangelsk vid Vita havet i nordvästra Ryssland.

Under eftermiddagen passerade det med rak kurs söder om Ystad, för att därefter gira tvärt. Därefter gick det åt sydöst för att vända om igen – och sedan tillbaka.

– Vi känner till händelsen med fartyget och utreder om det skett en kränkning eller inte, säger Johanna Toll, kommunikatör på Försvarsmakten, till TT. Läs artikel

On March 24, a month after Russian tanks rolled across Ukraine’s borders, the Biden White House summoned America’s partners (as its allies are now called) to a civilizational crusade. The administration proclaimed its commitment to those affected by Russia’s recent invasion—“especially vulnerable populations such as women, children, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTQI+) persons, and persons with disabilities.” At noon that same day, Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted about the “massive, unprecedented consequences” American sanctions were wreaking on Russia, and claimed Russia’s economic “collapse” was imminent.

Never has an official non-belligerent been more implicated in a war. Russia and its sympathizers assert that the U.S. attempt to turn Ukraine into an armed anti-Russian camp is what the war is about in the first place. Even those who dismiss this view will agree that the United States has made itself a central player in the conflict. It is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to defeat Russia through every means short of entering the war—which, of course, raises the risk that the United States will enter the war. One prong is the state-of-the-art weaponry it is supplying to Ukraine. Since June, thousands of computer-guided artillery rockets have been wreaking havoc behind Russian lines. A second prong is sanctions. With western European help, Washington has used its control of the choke points of the global marketplace to impoverish Russians, in hopes of punishing Russia. Finally, the U.S. seeks to rally the world’s peoples to a culture war against an enemy whose traditionalism, even if it does not constitute the whole of his evil, is at least a symbol of it. Läs artikel

Ukraine has launched a fresh strike on Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters at Sevastopol, where officials in the annexed Crimean peninsula said that at least one drone had been shot down by air defences.

The reported attack on Saturday morning – a day after explosions erupted near military bases in Russian-held areas of Ukraine and Russia itself – came on the same day that 12 civilians were reportedly wounded when a Russian missile hit a residential area of a Ukrainian town.

Vitaliy Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv, said that four children were among those wounded in an attack that damaged several private houses and a five-storey residential building in Voznesensk, about 19 miles (30km) from the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant. Läs artikel

The Ukrainian military’s push to ”hollow out” invading Russian forces and retake territory will soon get a boost in the form of a new $775 million security aid package from the United States.

The Pentagon on Friday confirmed it was readying the package — the 19th from the U.S. in the past year — complete with more ammunition for Ukraine’s 16 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, anti-armor systems and rounds, anti-radar missiles and mine-clearing capabilities.

”These are capabilities that are enhancing the Ukrainians’ mobility as they look at this very challenging environment in southern Ukraine in particular,” a senior defense official told reporters on the condition of anonymity, under ground rules established by the Pentagon. Läs artikel

Under perioden 24-31 augusti genomför marinen en större övning i inloppet till Göteborgs hamn samt i Hakefjorden in till Stenungssund och Wallhamn. Syftet med övningen är att träna på att skydda svenska hamnar och transportleder till havs. Militär personal, fartyg, båtar och helikopter kommer med stor sannolikhet att synas och höras mer än normal i området. […]

I övningen deltar förband från Tredje- och Fjärde sjöstridsflottiljen, Marinbasen, Älvsborgs amfibieregemente och Helikopterflottiljen. Även andra myndigheter deltar i övningen, bland annat Kustbevakningen. Övningarna kommer att pågår dygnet runt och genomförs främst på Försvarsmaktens egna övnings- och skjutfältsområden till havs och på land. I dialog med enskild markägare och kommuner har tillstånd godkänts för att bedriva viss verksamhet även på civil och kommunal mark. Läs pressmeddelande

Ukraina-krigen har skapt sterke følelser i Norge, noe som er naturlig da invasjonen av et selvstendig land bryter med både rettferdighetsfølelse og mange av de normene vi trodde var etablert i Europa etter den kalde krigen.

Diskusjonen kan likevel være problematisk, en del av dekningen av krigen har vært «jingoistisk» (et engelsk sjåvinismebegrep som innebærer en nasjonalistisk innstilling, kombinert med fiendlighet mot andre nasjoner, red.anm.) med et element av ønskedrømming fra vestlig side. Vi kan fort undervurdere Russland og overvurdere våre egne kapasiteter.

Det er viktig å bevege seg forbi denne typen retorikk, og se på noen av de mer oversette momentene som har formet Ukraina-krigen, og som til slutt kommer til å avgjøre krigen. Noen av disse momentene har blitt oversett i norsk forsvarsplanlegging. Slik kan vi lære av Ukraina-krisen.

En nøktern vurdering av hendelsesforløpet rundt Ukraina-krigen og mytene som har dannet seg rundt krigføringen, og virkningene på internasjonale forhold, kan være nyttig. Her er fire myter rundt Ukraina-krigen, som for vår egen skyld burde problematiseres, og hva som til slutt vil avgjøre krigen: Läs artikel

French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern to Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about safety risks at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant in Ukraine, Macron’s office said, adding that Putin had agreed to send a mission of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the site.

A statement also said that the two presidents — who discussed the situation in Ukraine in a phone call on August 19 — agreed to continue their talks in the coming days.

The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was captured by Russia in March, shortly after it invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The plant — Europe’s largest — has repeatedly come under fire in recent weeks, sparking fears of a nuclear disaster. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling the plant.

The Kremlin quoted Putin as saying that the shelling of the Russian-controlled nuclear site, which he blamed on Kyiv, created the risk of ”large-scale catastrophe.”

According to the Kremlin, both leaders called for IAEA experts to inspect the plant ”as soon as possible” and ”assess the real situation on the ground.” Läs artikel

Two Russian MiG-31 fighter jets are suspected of violating Finnish airspace on Thursday morning near the coastal city of Porvoo on the Gulf of Finland, the Finnish defence ministry said.

The suspected violation happened at 0640 GMT and the jets were westbound, communications chief Kristian Vakkuri told Reuters, adding the aircraft were in Finnish airspace for two minutes.

”The depth of the suspected violation into Finnish airspace was one kilometre,” he said, but would not elaborate on whether the planes were escorted out. Läs artikel