Månad: oktober 2023

[…] I januari 2023 inledde den borgerliga regeringen för första gången förhandlingar med USA om ett mer substantiellt försvarsavtal. Med ett Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) kan USA ha egna baser med förråd för vapen och annan utrustning i Sverige och beredskap för militära insatser på svensk sida om kriget kommer. Det är så nära försvarsgarantier det går att komma utanför Nato.

Norge skrev under ett DCA med USA redan 2021. Danmark inledde förhandlingar i februari 2022 och Finland i september 2022. Där siktar regeringen på att få avtalet på plats snarast. Ett argument är att medlemskap i Nato inte förtar betydelsen av ett separat avtal med USA. Tvärtom stärker det säkerheten och underlättar integrationen i Nato (Finland Ministry for Foreign Affairs 25/8).

Av de nordiska länderna är Sverige är sist på bollen i DCA-frågan. Efter det ryska anfallet mot Ukraina våren 2022 var S-regeringen upptagen med partiets navelskåderier om militär alliansfrihet och den interna skenprocessen om Natomedlemskap och kom inte till skott innan regeringsskiftet var ett faktum.

Nu är DCA-förhandlingarna med USA inne ”i slutfasen”, enligt statsministern. Han gav beskedet på eget initiativ vid ett säkerhetspolitiskt möte på Gotland i förra veckan och det tyder trots allt på en viss krisinsikt i Natofrågan (13/10).

Vad det innebär tidsmässigt vill Kristersson inte säga. Den springande punkten är att det måste gå snabbt. Samtalen förs med Bidenadministrationen, i skuggan av krig både i Europa och Mellanöstern. Om ett år är det presidentval. Donald Trump kan ta tillbaka Vita Huset. Då kan det vara för sent. Läs  artikel

In the aftermath of an air strike on a northern Gaza hospital that marked a sharp escalation in the ongoing Israel-Gaza crisis, the Security Council today failed to adopt a resolution put forth by Brazil that would have called for humanitarian pauses to allow full, safe and unhindered access for United Nations agencies and their partners, due to a veto cast by a permanent member of the Council, the United States.

If adopted, the resolution would have condemned all violence and hostilities against civilians and all acts of terrorism, and would have unequivocally rejected and condemned the terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting on 7 October.  It would have also called for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, and for the protection of all medical personnel and humanitarian personnel, as well as hospitals and medical facilities, consistent with international humanitarian law. […]

Although the United States cast a veto, the draft resolution garnered support from 12 Council members, including two permanent members (China, France), with two other permanent members (United Kingdom, Russian Federation) abstaining. Läs pressmeddelande

– Beredskap må inn i nesten alt som er av samfunnsplanlegging. Dette handler ikke om noe de andre gjør et annet sted. Beredskapen er faktisk oss alle, her og nå, sier LO-sekretær Are Tomasgard. […]

Men fra LOs side vil vi understreke at beredskapssystemet behøver et helhetlig løft med mange ulike tiltak på ulike områder. Enkelttiltak på enkelte områder er ikke i seg selv tilstrekkelig. LO vil også understreke at en reell styrking av beredskapen ofte vil kreve et reelt økonomisk løft. Vi mener også at kommisjonen ikke går langt nok i tiltak for å utnytte potensialet som ligger i vernepliktinstituttet. LO er opptatt av et forsvar som er solid forankret i folket, et tillitsforhold og en samfunnskontrakt mellom folk og forsvar. Allmenn verneplikt er fundamentet for denne forankringen, sier Tomasgard.

Forsvarskommisjonen går riktignok inn for å øke inntaket i førstegangstjenesten. LO mener imidlertid at man må se på muligheten for en større inkludering av flere, ikke bare som en verneplikt, men som en bredere beredskapsplikt, hvor samfunnets beredskapsbehov styrer inntaket, ikke bare Forsvarets rekrutteringsbehov. Dette forslaget har LO tidligere spilt inn både for Forsvarskommisjonen og Totalberedskapskommisjonen. Läs artikel

[…] For ten years, China has eagerly lobbied its Belt and Road initiative and invested billions in infrastructure projects across the world.

Also Russia is part of China’s grand masterplan, and Moscow’s war against Ukraine and its crippling international isolation is making Russia increasingly dependent on Beijing.

China is today Russia’s largest trade partner, and exchanges between the countries are expected to exceed $200 billion this year.

Judging from Putin’s speech at the forum, Russia will in the years to come make significant steps to integrate with asian partners. Railways were highlighted, and Putin underlined that a north-south connection between Arctic and Baltic seaports and ports on the coast of the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean is under development.

“On the entire connection from our northern city of Murmansk to the Iranian Bander-Abbas will, according to our specialists, be a seamless railway line,” Putin said. […]

During Xi’s visit to Moscow in March this year, it was decided to establish a joint Russian-Chinese working group on the development of the Northern Sea Route.

Also during this year’s visit, Putin highlighted his interest in getting foreign investments for the far northern shipping route.

“With regards to the Northern Sea Route, Russia does not only offer partners to actively use its transport potential. Even more: we invite interested countries in the direct participation in its development and we are ready to provide reliable ice escort, communications and supply,” he said and explained that year-round shipping on the route will start already in 2024.

“Already from next year, navigation for ice-class cargo ships will be open year-round on the whole Northern Sea Route,” he underlined. Läs artikel

Almost two months after it set out from the Kola Peninsula, nuclear powered Borei-class sub Generalissimus Suvorov arrives in its new home base of Vilyuchinsk.

The transfer from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet was completed on the 16th of October as the 170 meter long submarine arrived in the far eastern naval base.

“Today is a historical day and very important moment for the Pacific Fleet,” Fleet Commander Viktor Liina said in an address to ship Captain Igor Golobev and his crew. Läs artikel

[…] Beyond the combat capabilities of the Finnish military, what concerns Russia is possible deployments into Finland by other NATO members. The Russian embassy in Helsinki has informed its government that negotiations between the United States and Finland on a defense agreement that would allow American military bases are expected to be completed by the end of the year (Iz.ru, September 25).

The question remains open whether such bases will be permanent or not. The most likely scenario is one analogous to US defense arrangements with Norway. While the US military does not have permanent bases in Norway, it enjoys increased access to certain military facilities, deploying contingents and equipment there on a rotational basis.

Finland and the United States started debating a new Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) earlier this year. By the end of August 2023, the parties held three rounds of negotiations, according to the Finnish authorities. The website of Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs states, “The United States is one of the most important allies of Finland, and the government’s goal, according to the program, is to complete negotiations on the agreement. The agreement will strengthen Finland’s security and contribute to the fulfilment of Finland’s obligations as a NATO member” (Um.fi, August 25).

Following initial discussions after Finland’s acceptance into NATO, Finnish Foreign Ministry representative Mikael Antell, who participated in the negotiations, said that the DCA, among other things, will allow the deployment of troops, their stay in the country, and the preliminary storage of military equipment. Läs artikel

FN:s generalsekreterare Antonio Guterres kräver att Israel och Hamas går in för ett eldupphör omedelbart för att möjliggöra leverans av humanitärt bistånd till civilbefolkningen.

Han säger sig vara förskräckt av uppgifterna om hundratals dödsoffer i sjukhusattacken i Gaza City.

– Jag efterlyser omedelbart humanitärt eldupphör för att människors lidande, som uppnått episka mått, kan lindras.

Guterres säger sig ha bett Hamas frige de kidnappade personerna i utbyte mot att Israel tillåter införsel av humanitär hjälp till Gazaremsan.

FN:s generalsekreterare poängterar att terrororganisationen Hamas attack mot Israel den 7 oktober inte berättigar till kollektiv bestraffning av invånarna i Gaza. Läs artikel

The Security Council today failed to adopt a resolution put forth by the Russian Federation that would have called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Palestine crisis.

If adopted, it would have strongly condemned all violence and hostilities directed against civilians and all acts of terrorism.  By its further terms, it would also have called for the secure release of all hostages and unimpeded provision and distribution of humanitarian assistance, including of food, fuel and medical treatment.

While the draft resolution received support from one other permanent Council Member — China — and three non-permanent members, including Gabon, Mozambique and the United Arab Emirates, the delegations of France, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom voted against it, and the remaining six Council members abstained from voting.

Prior to the voting, the representative of the Russian Federation described that resolution as a “purely humanitarian text,” which had garnered support from Arab Group members as well as the State of Palestine.  Stressing that without a ceasefire, humanitarian efforts will not be possible, he said the draft condemns all violence and calls for the opening up of humanitarian corridors and the safe release of all hostages.  After the text was defeated, he said Western countries have stomped on the expectations of the entire world.  Nevertheless, he said, the draft has contributed to launching a substantive discussion on this topic in the Council.

The representative of the United States said that it was the attack on Israel by Hamas that led to the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.  While it is the Council’s responsibility to address the crisis, the proposed resolution falls short by failing to mention Hamas, she said.  Council members cannot allow the Council to shift the blame to Israel, she said, adding that her delegation could not vote for a resolution that dishonours victims. Läs  pressmeddelande

Enligt källor till Reuters är Turkiet villigt att vänta med att ratificera den svenska Nato-ansökan till efter oktober, då de fortfarande väntar på tecken från USA om att Turkiet ska få köpa F-16-jetplan.

– Med tanke på bristen på förtroende i frågan om F-16 och Sverige, så kommer Turkiet inte att skynda sig att ratificera Natos anbud och letar efter tecken på att USA vidtar åtgärder, säger en tjänsteman från Erdogan parti, AKP.

I förra veckan höll Natos försvarsministrar sitt första höstmöte i Bryssel och där hade man hoppats att man skulle kunna skynda på processen. Då uttalade sig källor om att tonläget mot Turkiet väntades hårdna och medier rapporterade att Natos tålamod höll på att ta slut. Läs artikel