As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year of fighting, all parties appear more willing to escalate than to bring it to an end. In his annual “State of the Nation” address, President Vladimir Putin warned NATO nations that they “must, in the end, understand all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization,” if they continue to arm Ukraine and consider sending troops. Even as far back as June 2022, Putin warned U.S. officials against sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, stating, “We will strike at those targets which we have not yet been hitting.”
However, American policymakers and analysts seem to think that Putin won’t put his money where his mouth is when it comes to escalation. Adam Kinzinger and Ben Hodges assured readers that Putin is bluffing with his threats of nuclear escalation. NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, dismissed the likelihood of Western aid to Ukraine leading to Russian retaliation. The Biden administration seems to agree, having recently allowed Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russian territory—a red line the administration previously refused to cross. […]
American policymakers and analysts today should exercise caution in interpreting Russian signals. Far too many are calling on the United States to plow through Russia’s red lines and continue its salami-slice escalation over the Ukraine conflict. It is important to note that there are cases throughout history where a country did not escalate a conflict or crisis after an adversary crossed its red line. With Russia’s enormous arsenal of nuclear weapons, however, it would be a risky gamble for American policymakers to assume that Russia would not eventually escalate. As Carl von Clausewitz observed, “In the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.” With stakes this high, America should be cautious, lest it lose all its chips. Läs artikel