Månad: juli 2024

The subtle signs that Ukraine is willing to engage diplomatically with Russia continue to increase. This week, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, traveled to China for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

“I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests, and China’s role as a global force for peace is important,” Kuleba said during the meeting.

Following the meeting, the Ukrainian foreign ministry put out a statement saying that Kyiv was “ready to engage” with Russia if Moscow was prepared to do so “in good faith,” but that so far they had seen no indication that Russia was ready to do so. […]

When China released its own peace plan in February 2023, Ukraine’s reaction was cautiously optimistic, and more welcoming than the United States or Western partners were of the plan. Ukraine’s urgency to engage with China as a potential mediator has perhaps increased due to uncertainty over whether the U.S. and the West are really in it for the long term. Läs artikel

Den 25. juli 2024  møtte medlem av det politiske byrået til KKPs sentralkomite og utenriksminister Wang Yi den indiske utenriksministeren Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar i Vientiane i Laos.[…]

Wang Yi sa at «den viktige betydningen av forholdet mellom Kina og India går utover bilateralt omfang. Forbedring av bilaterale forbindelser bør gjenspeile den strategiske visjonen til Kina og India som to store fremvoksende land og utviklingsland. Å håndtere forskjellene mellom de to landene bør demonstrere den politiske visdommen til Kina og India som to eldgamle sivilisasjoner. Å takle globale utfordringer bør legemliggjøre solidariteten og samarbeidet mellom landene i det «globale sør». Håpet er at de to sidene vil jobbe sammen for aktivt å utforske den rette måten for de to store naboene å komme overens med hverandre, og veilede alle lokalsamfunn til å utvikle positive oppfatninger av hverandre». Wang Yi understreket at «et Kina-India forhold tilbake på rett spor tjener interessene til begge sider og oppfyller de felles ambisjonene til landene i Det globale sør«.

Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar sa at «India og Kina er de to landene i verden med størst befolkning, og to store fremvoksende økonomier og eldgamle sivilisasjoner med lang historie. Å opprettholde en stabil og forutsigbar utvikling av de bilaterale relasjonene er helt i de to sidenes interesse, og har spesiell betydning for å opprettholde regional fred og fremme multipolaritet. India og Kina har brede sammenfallende interesser og møter skyggen som følge av situasjonen i grenseområdene. Men den indiske siden er klar til å ta et historisk, strategisk og åpent perspektiv for å finne løsninger på forskjellene og få de bilaterale relasjonene tilbake til et positivt og konstruktivt spor». Läs artikel

[…] President Vladimir Putin and his authoritarian regime are peddling the false narrative that the Russian economy is strong, and that its war machine is unharmed by western sanctions. This is a lie that must be rebutted. In fact, there are many signs that the Russian war economy is deteriorating. The sanctions and other measures to weaken the Russian economy are effective, but even more can be done. We must continue to increase pressure on Putin’s regime and support Ukraine.

During the Nato summit in Washington DC, western leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s defence. […]

While Russian GDP may be growing, the economy is increasingly geared towards the war industry, upheld by large fiscal stimulus. This is not an endless source of growth, nor a sign of a stable economy. The Kremlin’s war factories are already at maximum capacity. Unemployment has fallen to the point that there are reports that Vladimir Putin approved the replacement of imprisonment for forced labour. The tight labour market has put upward pressure on wages, while the weaker ruble increases import prices and is contributing to increasingly high inflation, despite Russian central bank efforts to fight it with high interest rates.

To finance the war, the Russian government has tapped into the liquid assets of Russia’s national wealth fund. Estimates by Bloomberg suggest it has almost halved in size since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as the country sacrifices its future prosperity to wreak havoc abroad. […]

Sanctions must be strengthened – particularly in strategically important sectors like energy, finance and technology; while the enforcement of existing sanctions must be improved. Läs artikel

Swedish Air Force’s Commander in Chief, Major General Jonas Wikman, outlined its current state within NATO. […]

The air force is now carrying out Quick Reaction Alerts (QRA) once a day to identify possible hostile aircraft and make its presence felt and it flew its first NATO mission a week ago from Iceland as part of the Nordic Air C2. Airborne Surveillance Control (ASC890) will be the largest Swedish military aid package at € 1.16 Billion and will provide Ukraine with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. Major General Wikman said as its S-100B Argus AEW&C aircraft are being donated to Ukraine, the air force is awaiting the delivery of its three Saab GlobalEyes that will be an integral part of ASC890. […]

As far as pilot training is concerned, basic training will be carried out in Sweden on the Grob G120TP while advanced training will be carried out in Italy under a 10-year contract with the International Flight Training School. Helicopter training takes place in Germany while transport crew training is in the United States. Läs artikel

Ett ryskt fartyg misstänks för en territoriekränkning på finskt havsområde i östra Finska viken.

Den misstänkta territoriekränkningen ägde rum på eftermiddagen i dag den 26 juli 2024.

I egenskap av högsta territorialövervakningsmyndighet leder och samordnar försvarsministeriet territorialövervakningsmyndigheternas verksamhet i territorialövervakningsärenden. Gränsbevakningsväsendet svarar för förundersökningen av territoriekränkningar.

Den senaste konstaterade territoriekränkningen inträffade den 10 juni 2024, då fyra ryska statsluftfartyg befann sig i finskt luftrum utanför Lovisa och Borgå. Läs artikel

Försvarsmakten har brist på yrkesofficerare. Samtidigt kommer uppgifter om att Sverige kan skicka en styrka till Finland – i en redan pressad situation. ”Personalen räcker helt enkelt inte till”, säger Officersförbundets ordförande.

Svenska officerare kan skickas till den nya multinationella Natostyrkan som ska placeras i Finland, vilket SvD rapporterat om tidigare. Samtal förs nu mellan länderna och enligt källor till SvD kan styrkan komma att placeras i finska Lappland.

Hur många svenskar det kan handla om är ännu inte bestämt. Men det diskuteras i ett läge då det är akut brist på yrkesofficerare inom Försvarsmakten. Artikel bakom betalvägg

Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told the Finnish Parliament that the goal is to reach a consensus with Sweden and Norway on the future of the Barents cooperation during 2024.

The Foreign Minister responded to a question raised by Member of Parliament for the Social Democratic Party, Seppo Eskelinen.

The future of Europe’s northernmost cross-border cooperation has been in jeopardy since March 2022, when the Barents Euro-Arctic Council froze all collaboration with Russia due to the aggressor’s full-scale war on Ukraine. Barents Euro-Arctic Council is the highest governing body of the Barents cooperation and is led by the member states foreign ministers.

The cooperation also includes Barents Regional Council, lead by the leaders of the nine northern member regions in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Läs artikel

The Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine has been primarily driven by the threat of NATO’s expansion along Russia’s border. Its strategic objective is to annex some Ukrainian territory and badly weaken the country so it cannot join NATO.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a chorus of government officials, academics, commentators, and retired bureaucrats and diplomats has dismissed all links between the crisis and the decades-long NATO expansion. Moscow’s aggression, we are told, is all about Vladimir Putin’s imperial impulse—his desire to recreate the Russian empire.

In reality, the Kremlin’s conduct has been primarily driven by the threat of NATO’s expansion along Russia’s border. We had some warning of Russia’s strategic sensibilities three decades ago. Läs artikel

Germany, France and Italy will take part in joint exercises with Tokyo this summer, as the threats from Moscow and Beijing grow.

Japanese F35 fighter jets teamed up with German Eurofighters for a joint training exercise at the adjacent Chitose base, which brings happy holidaying families back to reality. Russia’s Sakhalin island is a mere 25 miles from the northern tip of the Japanese tourist spot of Hokkaido. One unusually frequent visitor this week was the boss of the German air force, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, who’s on his second visit in as many years. […]

”I cannot speculate about the threat perception of Japan, but [the training] shows that both regions — Europe and Indo-Pacific — [form] one big space of security,” Gerhartz told POLITICO, standing next to a Japanese warplane printed with the German, Spanish and French flags. ”You cannot separate those two regions.”

That’s a big statement for Europe, and a big shift from the old thinking. Since 2022, European defense chiefs have been almost singularly focused on their own theater, busy making plans for an increasingly assertive Russia, which is not only sustaining the war against Ukraine but is also posing a potential threat to NATO’s eastern flank countries. Läs artikel