Månad: juli 2024

[…] After the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023, recognition that its forces cannot regain more of its territory has begun to sink in. Indeed, despite the flow of heavy Western aid, Kyiv may struggle to hold what it has — a circumstance that suggests it should start exploring negotiations with Moscow to end or even freeze the conflict via an armistice now, before the battlefield situation worsens and negotiating room shrinks.

But instead, Washington and European capitals are, unfortunately, doubling down — at least rhetorically — continuing to claim Ukraine will someday join NATO. In fact, after promoting a vague “bridge” to Ukraine’s eventual membership before the summit, during the gathering NATO leaders claimed Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to entry.

In recent weeks, the U.S. also signed a 10-year security pact with Kyiv, and approved the use of U.S. weapons by Ukrainian forces on targets inside the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, seconded by leaders in the Baltics, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested NATO ground troops be sent to Ukraine, while U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff implied that the deployment of NATO trainers to Ukraine is inevitable.

But as we’ve argued previously, it would be foolish to admit Ukraine to NATO — now or ever. Läs artikel

China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, delivered a sharp critique of NATO during an open debate at the UN Security Council on international order and multilateral cooperation. […]

He expressed concern over the current state of international order discussions, noting obvious truths are distorted and questionable narratives are on the rise. Fu highlighted that some countries’ purported ”rule-based international order” initiatives actually seek to establish parallel systems outside existing international legal frameworks, legitimizing double standards and exceptionalism.

”There is only one order in the world, which is the international order based on international law. There is only one set of rules, which are the basic principles and purposes of the UN Charter in international relations. Matters of principle tolerate no vagueness; they must be clear and distinct,” Fu emphasized. Läs artikel

A new U.S. ballistic missile defense site in Redzikowo, Poland, is now operational, and the new site is intended to enhance NATO’s missile shield capabilities, NATO announced in a statement.

Dubbed “Aegis Ashore,” the site is designed to detect, track, and intercept ballistic missiles in flight. The Aegis Ashore site in Poland, along with a similar site in Romania, forms a critical component of NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence “Enhanced Operational Capability,” the statement reads. These sites are supported by U.S. Navy destroyers stationed in Rota, Spain, and an early-warning radar in Kurecik, Türkiye. Läs artikel

More than 80 Allied aircraft and over 500 personnel are currently participating in the German-led exercise, Arctic Defender, from July 8 to 17, 2024, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, according to a press release.

The exercise aims to enhance NATO’s collective defence capabilities by integrating air forces from Canada, France, Spain, the U.S., and Germany in challenging Arctic conditions.[…]

Arctic Defender is part of the broader Pacific Skies deployment and focuses on advanced aerial manoeuvres and air-to-air refuelling operations. This year marks the first time that the European Air Transport Command (EATC) is conducting its Air-to-Air Refueling Training outside Europe in conjunction with the exercise. The involvement of EATC’s air-refuelers underscores the training’s multinational and integrated nature. Läs artikel

During the 2024 Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Washington DC, the alliance announced the establishment of a liaison office in Jordan’s capital Amman.

NATO, considered by many to be a tool to assert and consolidate US military dominance across the world, stated that the Amman office will be its first-ever liaison office in the so-called “Middle East and North Africa” region. The announcement comes as Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, backed and enabled by the US and NATO allies, completes nine months. […]

Dr. Issam Khawaja: The establishment of a NATO liaison office is not the first step for Jordan to build or consolidate the relations with the Western alliance in general and the United States, in particular. Jordan had already made its decision to be part of this alliance that seeks to maintain its strategic interests in the region, above all the security of the Israeli occupation entity. This step was preceded by signing the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty (also known as Wadi Araba Treaty) and the Defense Cooperation Agreement which the United States and Jordan signed on January 31, 2021, and entered into force on March 17, 2021, without the approval of the Jordanian parliament.

The agreement authorizes US troops, aircrafts and vehicles to have unimpeded access and use of agreed areas and facilities in Jordan. It also authorizes the US to control the entry to agreed upon facilities and areas that have been provided for exclusive use by US forces, in a way that may undermine Jordan’s sovereignty. Moreover, the United States moved many military bases and weaponry warehouses from Qatar to Jordan in the last couple of years. This means that Jordan is becoming a hub for the United States military presence in the region. Läs artikel

[…] The genesis for Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand to participate in the NATO summit meetings for the third consecutive year in the row is of course a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, rather than deep-rooted concerns about the China challenge. Since the war in Ukraine, all four countries have stood together with NATO in their opposition against Russian aggression and have made sizable contributions in defense of Ukraine. Each of the IP4 countries have also signed Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP) with NATO to identify areas of mutual bilateral interest for potential cooperation. For Japan, which has developed strong working relations with NATO since the early 1990s, shared future interests include maritime security as well as cyber defense. At the same time, Tokyo has committed nearly $12 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine’s war effort and has also adapted its export control legislation to provide support. For South Korea, areas for cooperation with NATO focus on arms control, non-proliferation, and counter-terrorism as well as cyber defense with an eye towards addressing the threat posed by the DPRK. […]

In short, the IP4 nations have been critical partners in collective efforts to support Ukraine, and are united in their commitment to push back against Russian aggression. Moreover, as NATO publicly declared that China is “a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” the alliance has made clear that Beijing’s actions threaten not only the Indo-Pacific, but global order more broadly. But whilst the Indo-Pacific’s security risks are no longer seen as being contained within the region, just how and whether NATO has the capability or indeed the political will to press ahead with decisive actions.

Certainly, NATO’s own mandate not only prevents the alliance from engaging in the Indo-Pacific, but Article 6 states that an attack on land, forces, vessels, or aircraft north of the Tropic of Cancer would trigger collective defensive action. That means not even Hawaii comes under the auspices of protection from Article 5, even though it is a US state. Meanwhile, there is opposition amongst NATO member countries to take on a decisive political stance against China as seen by France’s opposition to the establishment of a liaison office in Tokyo last year even though such a move could have been an effective deterrence mechanism against Beijing taking hostile actions in the region.  Läs artikel

[…] During the 1990s Sweden sporadically employed road-based operations but in the 2010s they came back into vogue, and today once again serve as a routine element of air force training. The operations have evolved to take advantage of advances in communications technology, and today permit a very fluid form of warfare that is difficult to detect and disrupt.

That fluidity is the key to survivability. “If you operate from anywhere for long enough, a bomb will eventually find you,” said Adam Nelson, chief of the Swedish air force’s F7 wing at Såtenäs. “You have to keep on the move.”

Each “base” consists of numerous highway strips of a nominal 800-meter length and 17-meter width (around 2,624 feet by 56 feet). The strips serve as everyday roads but with some treatment to the surface applied to prevent them breaking up and causing foreign object damage. Discreet hard standings have emerged alongside the roads in the general vicinity, not only to provide parking stands for aircraft but to accommodate trucks and fuel bowsers when not required for combat.

Everything is kept small to minimize detectability and enhance survivability. A single strip might only be activated for a short time, the support personnel retreating to the safety of the woods some way away when they are not needed. Local police shut down the highway for only as long as required. Typically a Swedish Gripen will stay on the ground for around 15 minutes between sorties—time for it to be serviced, refueled, and rearmed by a team of just three trained conscripts and one full-timer. Läs artikel

The 2024 Washington Summit neatly laid bare NATO’s problem: it has forgotten its purpose and lost sight of its central mission. NATO’s 1978 Washington Summit was held in a similarly fraught geopolitical era in which the Soviet threat loomed larger than ever. The 1978 communiqué reiterated the two aims of the alliance—to maintain security and pursue détente. Détente as a concept was not as emotionally charged as it is today. Rationality reigned. Even so, this was not a nod to “appeasement” or weakness—even in 1978, the alliance reiterated the significance of maintaining “vigilance” and keeping “defences at the level rendered necessary.” […]

NATO’s 2024 Washington Summit was performative and miles away from the summits of decades ago. External threats are listed, like a shopping list, from China to Russia to Iran. Missing is the alliance’s plan to compete and secure itself. Nor is there an articulation of what the “rules-based international order” actually is and how it is a “vital” interest.

If NATO had not already signaled its unseriousness, the deeper fostering of Asia at the 2024 Summit surely did. If NATO’s strategic aim today is to “modernise NATO for a new era of collective defence,” then by the basic definition of the Washington Treaty, this does not include states like Australia or New Zealand. Both are well south of the Tropic of Cancer—the limits of NATO’s geographical zoning for collective defense. Läs artikel

NATO’s secretary general has rejected Poland’s proposal that it could shoot down Russian missiles that are over Ukraine but heading towards Polish territory. This would risk NATO “becoming part of the conflict”, says Jens Stoltenberg.

The idea was included last week in a security agreement between Poland and Ukraine signed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw.

The two countries pledged to bilaterally and with other allies “examine the rationale and feasibility of possible intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] fired in the direction of the territory of Poland”. […]

Tusk emphasised that such a policy would only be introduced with “the stamp of approval of the international community, preferably NATO”. However, when asked about the idea by Ukrainian media outlets on Sunday, Stoltenberg responded negatively.

“NATO’s policy is unchanged: we will not be involved in this conflict. We will not become part of the conflict,” he said. “We support Ukraine in the destruction of Russian aircraft, but NATO will not be directly involved.” Läs artikel

Mycket tidigt denna morgon bär det nu tillbaka till Europa efter tre dagar i ett Indien i mycket snabb och imponerande utveckling.

Ambitionen är det inget fel på. Man talar ständigt om att gå från världens femte största ekonomi i dag till dess tredje största om ett par decenniet, och lyckas man hålla nuvarande tillväxt är det en fullt realistisk ambition. […]

Nato-toppmötet i Washington avlöpte utan nämnvärda överraskningar. Men två formuleringar i den avslutande kommunikén avvek lite från det normala.

En var att man sade att Kina var en ”decisive enabler” av den ryska aggressionen mot Ukraina.

Det kan sägas, men det skall då samtidigt noteras att medan det förvisso är den ryska exporten av olja som håller upp den ryska ekonomin och därmed finansierar kriget går kring 80% av denna till Kina och Indien med liten skillnad mellan de två.

Den indiska importen av olja från Ryssland har mer än tiodubblats sedan kriget inleddes.

Och ser man på de nytillverkade kryssningsrobotar som anfaller Ukraina visar det sig att nyckelkomponemterna fortfarande till större delen kommer från USA. Dessas vägar in i Ryssland har dock sannolikt varit komplicerade. Läs artikel

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s joint declaration issued Wednesday in Washington signaled a change from the Western military alliance’s traditional focus on Russia with its rare open rebuke of China, calling it a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The rhetoric comes at a time when NATO declared its bid to bolster cooperation with its so-called “Indo-Pacific 4” partners — namely South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand — in their latest summit, inviting these four countries’ heads of state to the summit for a third consecutive year and institutionalizing its cooperation with these countries to support Ukraine. NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners also collected their voices against military ties between Russia and North Korea.

But there are doubts whether NATO’s like-minded Indo-Pacific partner countries neighboring China, like South Korea, could keep pace with NATO’s pressure campaign against China given the geopolitical complexities that often left them mired in strategic dilemmas between the world’s two superpowers of the United States and China.

Experts caution that South Korea could face increasing pressure from China, given its trade dependence on the Asian superpower, which accounts for roughly 20 percent of its total exports. This pressure is particularly concerning as Seoul seeks to mend relations with Beijing, strained since 2016. South Korea’s decision to allow the deployment of the US anti-missile system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, damaged bilateral ties, with China imposing economic coercion on Korean businesses. This made it also challenging for Seoul to manage Pyongyang with its previous strategy of boasting strengthened ties with Beijing. Läs artikel