Månad: augusti 2024

Not everyone loves the idea of more American longer-range missiles on German soil.

That’s especially true for the members of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD).

The decision by Scholz to agree to allow the United States to base missiles in Germany from 2026 that are capable of striking targets at distances of 2,500 kilometers — easily able to hit Moscow from Berlin — has some in his own party up in arms.

“Not every weapon makes Germany immediately safer,” Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the SPD faction in the Bundestag lower house of parliament, told POLITICO’s Berlin Playbook podcast. He had earlier argued that the deployment further escalates the simmering conflict between the West and Russia, and makes a miscalculation more likely.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the missiles could eventually be equipped with nuclear weapons and threatened a tit-for-tat response should Washington deploy them.

The objections from SPD members of parliament come despite the Bundestag not really having a say in the issue, as the deployment doesn’t involve public spending and won’t be controlled by the German military. But senior SPD lawmakers working on defense and security said in a note to colleagues, seen by POLITICO, that they will call a debate in the Bundestag in September to discuss the issue. Läs artikel

Forsterkningene skal sikre økt beskyttelse for amerikanske styrker i regionen, samt bidra til et sterkere forsvar for Israel.

– Forsvarsminister Lloyd Austin har beordret justeringer i USAs militære stilling for å sikre at USA er forberedt på å reagere på ulike uforutsette hendelser, heter det i en uttalelse fra departementet.

USA forbereder seg på at Iran skal gjennomføre et gjengjeldelsesangrep mot Israel etter at Hamas-lederen Ismail Haniyeh ble drept i et antatt israelsk angrep i Teheran natt til onsdag.

Det er også ventet at Hizbollah skal svare etter at gruppens militære leder, Fuad Shukr, ble drept i et antatt israelsk angrep tirsdag. Läs artikel

[…] Recently, the Norwegian government presented a new Svalbard white paper two years before its scheduled arrival. Geopolitics was referred to as one of the driving forces behind this acceleration of the white paper.

Yet, the specifics about the government’s geopolitical concerns are kept under wraps. As the Norwegian government keeps quiet about its Svalbard concerns, misconceptions and misunderstandings continue to arise in media and scholarly work.

Andreas Østhagen, Senior Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, recently published a research article titled The Myths of Svalbard Geopolitics: An Arctic Case Study, in which he explores these misconceptions.  In the article, Østhagen states, ”Common conceptions of ‘geopolitical rivalry’ being caused or even accelerated by sea ice melting are too simplistic.” […]

The most common misconception concerns Svalbard’s status as a ’shared space’ or its legal status as being ’ambiguous.’ Østhagen highlights that many researchers have questioned Norwegian sovereignty or characterized it as disputed, but that this is inaccurate.  The researcher says that Norwegian laws and regulations apply to the archipelago and that not even the militaristic Russia could claim otherwise. He also emphasizes that NATO’s security guarantees apply to Svalbard.

”The notion that its sovereignty is in dispute, or that there exists a legal ‘ambiguity,’ might arise from a conflation of the dispute that concerns the Treaty’s relevance for activities beyond 12 nautical miles,” writes the FNI researcher. Läs artikel

Taking a veiled dig at China by saying that both India and Vietnam oppose ”expansionism” in the Indo-Pacific, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with his visiting Vietnamese counterpart Pham Minh Chinh, and announced two credit lines totalling $ 300 million to bolster the maritime security of the south-east Asian nation. Both leaders adopted a plan of action to strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) between the nations from 2024-28, which was among the nine pacts inked on the day.
Läs artikel

Den 1 augusti beslutade regeringen om Sveriges nationella plan för militär rörlighet 2024–2026. Syftet är bland annat att skapa förutsättningar för storskaliga militära operationer. Försvarsmakten får i uppdrag att föreslå åtgärder för att kunna genomföra planen.

Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, briefing the Council on alarming developments in the Middle East, said that, earlier today, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’ political bureau, was killed, together with a bodyguard in Tehran.  Mr. Haniyeh had been in Tehran, at the invitation of Iran’s Government, to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new President, Masoud Pezeshkian.  In a letter to the Council President today, Iran accused Israel of carrying out an attack that killed Mr. Haniyeh and claimed it was a “serious infringement” of Iran’s sovereignty and territory integrity and constituted a “blatant violation” of international law.  Iran’s Supreme Leader and other senior officials have vowed to avenge Mr. Haniyeh’s death, warning Israel of “harsh punishment […] intended to instil deep regret in the perpetrator.”  Various non-State armed groups aligned with Iran across the region have also threatened to retaliate against Israel, she added. […]

Echoing the words of the UN Secretary-General who has “consistently called for maximum restraint by all”, she said that “it is increasingly clear, however, that restraint alone is insufficient at this extremely sensitive time”.  Diplomatic efforts to change the trajectory and seek a path towards regional peace and stability are urgently needed, she said, stressing that “communication by means of missiles, armed drones and other deadly attacks must end”.  Instead, she called for regional de-escalation and underscored that “the international community must work together to prevent any actions that could make the conflict much bigger and wider very quickly”. Läs artikel

Two Tu-22M3 were damaged and their repair will take months, says Andrii Yusov, spokesperson with the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) to Radio Svoboda.

The explosion happened over the planes, Andrii Yusov says to Radio Svoboda. He details the two supersonic bombers to be No. 33 and No. 31. “No. 33 has holes in the upper part of the fuselage. And No. 31 also has some damage,” Yusov says.

The drone attack on the remote airfield of Olenya on the Kola Peninsula became known on July 27, but according to the Ukrainian military intelligence the attack happened on July 25 at approximately 3:47 pm. Studies made by the Barents Observer of Sentinel satellite images show that several of the aircraft, including Tu-22M3, parked at two of the aprons on July 25 are not there on the 27. Planes could be relocated, are out on mission as the satellite passed over, or taken to hangars.  Sentinel’s images have too low resolution to make any conclusions on what impact the drone attack might have had. […]

Andrii Yusov also mentioned that the air alarm did not go off at the airfield.

There are no information available on what kind of drone hit the Olenya airfield. An expert talking to the Barents Observer says it is “unlikely that the drone flew all north from Ukraine.”

The strategic bombers’ airfield south of Murmansk is 1,800 kilometers from Ukraine’s border with Russia. Small fixed-wing drones, quadcopter or octocopter could easily be transported north to the Kola Peninsula in the trunk of a private car or in a small van.

Russia’s air defense systems are not designed to take down small drones carrying explosives. Läs artikel

Den internationella domstolen (ICJ), det internationella samfundets viktigaste juridiska organ, lämnade den 19 juli ett 80 sidor långt rådgivande yttrande om den israeliska ockupationen av ­palestinska områden (OPT). Domstolen anser att palestinierna har en rätt till självbestämmande inklusive att bilda en egen stat; att Israel annekterar stora delar av Västbanken i strid med FN-stadgans våldsförbud; att palestinier systematiskt diskrimineras; att Israels fortsatta närvaro på ockuperade områden är olaglig och måste upphöra så snart som möjligt; att Israel är skyldig att evakuera alla israeliska bosättare från OPT; samt att Israel ska lämna ersättning och annan gott­görelse för skada. […]

I Gaza pågår kriget på sin tionde månad med en katastrofal humanitär situation som erfarna bistånds­arbetare betecknar som det värsta de sett. Samtidigt låter den israeliska försvarsmakten uppföra baser och ­annan infrastruktur som kan användas i en fortsatt ockupation av Gaza. […]

Då det står bortom rimligt tvivel att Israel har begått ett stort antal svåra överträdelser av folkrätten kan den svenska regeringen inte hänvisa till att man måste invänta beslut från ”rättsliga instanser” innan den tar sin del av det globala ansvaret att hindra och fördöma överträdelser av folkrätten. […]

Viktigast av allt: Det går inte längre att förvänta sig att parterna ska förhandla fram en fred. Så sent som den 17 juli antog Knesset en resolution som, med stöd av regeringen, tillbakavisar en tvåstatslösning. Omvärlden måste kräva att Israel formellt erkänner palestiniernas rätt att bilda en egen stat samt erbjuder en fred i enlighet med folkrätten. (PLO har erkänt Israel men Israel har aldrig explicit erkänt att palestinierna har en rätt att till en egen stat i Västbanken och Gaza.) Läs artikel

Poland and allied NATO countries will commence an air-defense operation on August 1 dubbed “Eastern Aurora”, aimed at strengthening Polish airspace against incursions in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The operation will run parallel with the ‘Safe Podlasie’ initiative involving the deployment of 17,000 troops to the Polish-Belarusian border, where a migratory crisis has been ongoing since 2021. Warsaw attributes the crisis to a “hybrid war” policy by the Alexander Lukashenko regime.

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said during an inauguration ceremony for Safe Podlasie on Wednesday that Eastern Aurora was “a matter of the security of Polish airspace.” Läs artikel