Iver B. Neumann, a Russia researcher and director at the FNI, concurs that the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations.
He believes the primary driver for military conflict in the Arctic is Russia’s use of Murmansk as a base for nuclear weapons.
“There are three main ways to keep such weapons mobile: in aircraft, on land by rail, and at sea on submarines. Where such submarines exist, as in Murmansk, there is also significant military attention. And where there is military attention, there is also the potential for conflict,” he says.
Neumann advises caution in responding to Russia’s desire for global attention and military control, stressing the importance of Norway maintaining a cool head, enforcing sovereignty, and not succumbing to intimidation. […]
Østhagen, who wrote his PhD on maritime disputes, foresees no major concerns regarding sovereignty or territorial issues. He believes the myth persists due to historical reasons but emphasises that, with all the land borders settled and just one disputed sea border, Arctic resources are already distributed among the eight Arctic states. […]
The Arctic, traditionally seen as secure due to inaccessibility and ice cover, hosts many of Russia’s nuclear weapons.
“Putin’s aim to rebuild Russia as a military superpower, with credible nuclear deterrence, involves deploying weapons to strategic locations like the Kola Peninsula,” Østhagen says.
With climate changes, increased shipping activity in Russian Arctic waters becomes more feasible. “Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising that Russia wants to maintain control over its northern territories,” the researcher says. However, according to Østhagen, Russia’s military buildup in the region is more about relations with NATO than the changing climate. Läs artikel