Chaos Is Bad for Business, paulkrugman.substack.com

Paul Krugman

Early this month Donald Trump announced that he was about to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Then he put them on pause for 30 days. So are they on again next week? Yesterday he insisted that they are. But will they really happen? Nobody knows.

Trump is also threatening a trade war with the European Union, which he says “was formed to screw the United States.” (It was actually created with America’s blessing, because we saw it as a force for peace and democracy.) Will he follow through on his threat? Nobody knows. […]

Most alarming of all, if it’s real: People within the administration appear to be floating the idea of restructuring U.S. debt via a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” that would force investors holding Treasury bills — short-term debt — to exchange them for 100-year bonds. This would effectively be a default on U.S. debt. Since the whole world financial system rests on the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries, which are universally accepted as collateral for many transactions, such a move would threaten global economic chaos. But is the administration serious about this idea? Nobody knows. Läs artikel