Totalförsvar för Sverige men eget territorialförsvar saknas

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Regeringen beslutade den 9 december om inriktningen på totalförsvaret i direktivet ”Gemensamma förutsättningar för utvecklingen av totalförsvaret 2025–2030”.

Sverige kan bli angripet militärt slår man fast men säger samtidigt att det också kan gälla för våra allierade.

Frågan om militärt hot mot Sverige har bollats fram och tillbaka av regering och militärledningen. Inför Nato-medlemskapet förklarade Magdalena Andersson att Sverige var hotat och att vi måste gå med i Nato för att klara oss.  På förra årets Folk och Försvar, fortfarande innan Nato-medlemskapet, förklarade både ministern för civilt försvar Carl-Oskar Bohlin och statsministern att Sverige kunde bli angripet.

Budskapet till svenska folket var att Nato-medlemskapet var nödvändigt. När vi sedan blev Nato-medlem började hotbilden förändras och  militärledningen har förklarat att Sverige  inte är ett mål för ett militärt angrepp från Ryssland. Vårt territorium skall fungera som transitland och uppmarschområde för Nato-trupper till Finland och Baltikum. Sverige skall placera sina fåtaliga markstyrkor i öster och då kan vi utkämpa ett krig borta från vårt eget territorium och därför slippa kriget hos oss.

Man kan med rätta ifrågasätta det realistiska i den planen då krig idag förs över stora avstånd och då en angripare knappast kommer att nöja sig med att utkämpa ett krig bara i finska gränszonen.

Regering och riksdag har dock ställt sig bakom planen och man talar om att sätta in våra två brigader i öster utanför Sveriges gränser. En första bataljon skall stationeras under Nato-befäl i Lettland.

Resultatet blir att Sverige står utan ett eget territorialförsvar. Vid ett angrepp finns i stort sett bara hemvärn, delar av flygvapnet och vad som inte är utstationerat av marinen att tillgå och vi riskerar att landet blir ett strategiskt tomrum, förklarade arméchefen i ett anfall av klarsynthet.

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The Norwegian Armed Forces With Full Broadband Coverage in the Arctic, highnorthnews.com

Before Christmas, the activation of the Norwegian Armed Forces’ satellite-based network coverage in the Arctic was marked both symbolically and in practice.

Norway’s MoD Bjørn Arild Gram, flanked by leaders in the Norwegian Cyber Defense and Space Norway, cut the ribbon in front of new ground antennas at the Norwegian Armed Forces’ satellite station at Eggemoen – and conducted a first video call with the new capacity to the Coast Guard vessel KV Bjørnøya operating in Arctic waters.

”For the first time, we have full control over strategically important communication services in an area lacking broadband until now. This provides us with better situational awareness in the north, which is important to ensure regional stability and predictability. It helps safeguard Norway,” says Gram (Center).

More specifically, the Norwegian Armed Forces Cyber Defense has now taken over the control of payloads with military X band, carried by two new Arctic broadband satellites.

The Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM) is led by the Norwegian state-owned company Space Norway, with the Armed Forces as one of its customers. Läs artikel

EU-NATO countries entirely split over Israel, Iran, and Houthis, responsiblestatecraft.org

[…] These divisions reflect a long-standing failure of the EU member states and institutions to speak with “one voice” on the Middle East.

When the U.S. called for an international coalition to stop the Yemen-based Houthi militias attacks on the international shipping in the Red Sea, only a few European nations signed the joint statement: the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Italy. Of that initial group, only Britain, Denmark, Netherlands, plus Greece joined as the European contingent of “Operation Prosperity Guardian.”

Others like France, while condemning the Houthi attacks, expressed preference for an autonomous, European-led operation. Still others, like Spain, were skeptical of any involvement in any anti-Houthi action whatsoever.

So far, Britain has been the only navy to engage in actual strikes against the Houthis (so far, with limited success), as part of the U.S.-led operation. Meanwhile, EU defense ministers agreed to launch the EU-led “Operation Aspides” to help guarantee free navigation and the safety of commercial traffic — initially, under Italian command. Läs artikel

Kristersson står fast: Inga EU-lån för europeiskt försvar, europaportalen.se

Sverige står alltmer ensamt i motståndet mot att EU ska ta gemensamma lån för att finansiera försvarsutgifter. Under fredagens EU-nämnd var statsminister Ulf Kristersson (M) tydlig med att Sverige inte tänker ändra ståndpunkt, trots att tidigare likasinnade som Danmark och Finland öppnat för lånefinansiering.

– Det finns inga genvägar. Det måste ske genom nationella prioriteringar, sade Kristersson.

När EU:s stats- och regeringschefer samlas för ett informellt möte i Bryssel på måndag kommer finansieringen av unionens försvarsutgifter att stå i centrum. Många medlemsländer vill se gemensam upplåning för att klara de omfattande investeringar som krävs.

– Vi måste inse vidden av de försvarsinvesteringar som måste göras i väldigt många europeiska länder nu. De är enorma. Det är de största vi har sett sedan andra världskriget. Det här vållar problem, sade statsminister Ulf Kristersson under fredagens samråd i riksdagens EU-nämnd.

Kristersson pekade på att många EU-länder redan har stora budgetunderskott och hög statsskuld, vilket gör att de söker alternativa finansieringsvägar. Men Sverige står fast vid sin linje. På sin sida i debatten har Sverige enligt statsministern Tyskland och ”kanske några länder till”

– Det finns inga genvägar. Det finns starka skäl att öka försvarsinvesteringarna, men det måste ske genom nationella prioriteringar, sade Kristersson. Läs artikel

Christmas Day Cable Cuts in the Baltic Sea, ejiltalk.org

Alexander Lott, researcher at the Norwegian Centre for the Law of the Sea at the UiT

In less than 14 months, submarine telecommunications cables connecting Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Russia, and Sweden have been cut nine times in the Baltic Sea. In addition, an underwater electricity cable and a gas pipeline have been cut by a ship anchor. These damages occurred in three separate incidents all involving a foreign commercial ship dragging an anchor on the seafloor for over a hundred kilometres. […]

As the Eagle S continued the anchor-dragging and sailed westward, the Finnish Defence Forces and Coast Guard intervened off Helsinki and Tallinn (see Map 1). They used a patrol ship and two helicopters to stop and board the Cook Islands-flagged Eagle S, forming part of the Russian sanctions-busting ‘shadow fleet’. The ship was stopped just before it would have crossed the ESTLINK 1 electricity cable, the Balticconnector gas pipeline, and other underwater cables. […]

The special forces (Karhu) of the Finnish Defence Forces and the Coast Guard boarded the ship from two helicopters and took command of the Eagle S after the ship had entered the Finnish territorial sea (see Map 2). The Finnish President Mr. Alexander Stubb confirmed that the ship was boarded in the Finnish territorial sea. […]

It is unclear whether Finland consulted with the flag State prior to interdicting the ship. In any event, the flag State consent to board and seize the ship was not required as the Finnish laws were enforced only after the ship had agreed to enter the Finnish territorial sea. Yet, notably, according to the Finnish press report, the Finnish authorities were ready to take measures against the ship even if it had not agreed to enter the Finnish territorial sea. In this time-critical situation, this would have been necessary to avoid damages to the ESTLINK 1 electricity cable, the Balticconnector gas pipeline, and to the other submarine data cables (see Map 1). […]

The Finnish criminal jurisdiction can be exercised on the grounds of the damage caused to the submarine cables and, possibly, for violating the European Union (EU) sanctions. The EU has prohibited the shipments of Russia’s oil to non-EU countries, unless these products are being sold in accordance with the oil price cap. The violation of the sanctions is a crime at the EU level. Läs artikel

Status Report on the Iron Ore Line Derailment: Could Have Been Caused by Defective Wheel, highnorthnews.com

The derailment on the Iron Ore Line in December last year may have been caused by a defective wheel.

This was stated by the Swedish Accident Investigation Authority. The final report is scheduled for March 2025.

A loaded iron ore train heading from Kiruna in Northern Sweden to Narvik in Northern Norway derailed near the Norwegian border with several cars. There were no injuries, but the derailment led to significant damage to infrastructure, such as rails, sleepers, and overhead lines. […]

The report reveals that a wheel is to have derailed while the trail was still in motion. The more extensive derailment occurred 15 kilometers later with several derailed axles and cars.

The investigators found an axle with a loose, damaged wheel under the derailed cars. According to the report, the wheel broke, then moved toward the axle and derailed.

A crack on the back of the wheel flange is a likely contributor. The cause of this is still under investigation. Läs artikel

 

The rise and fall of Sweden’s nuclear disarmament advocacy, thebulletin.org

In the nine months since joining NATO, Sweden has not wasted any time integrating itself tightly into the transatlantic alliance. On September 16, Sweden doubled down on its commitment to a nuclear weapons-based military alliance when Sweden and Finland agreed that Sweden would lead a new NATO defense base to be established in northern Finland.

While Denmark and Norway currently do not want to host nuclear weapons on their own soil, NATO’s new entrants have both signaled an openness to doing so. In June, the Swedish parliament ratified a Defense Cooperation Agreement granting the United States access to 17 Swedish military bases, and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson did not rule out hosting nuclear weapons during wartime. Meanwhile, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has advocated for a legislative change to allow the transportation of nuclear weapons.

With the benefit of historical hindsight, it is clear that this was not an inevitable outcome. Sweden was once a nuclear aspirant with an advanced weapons program, but just a few decades ago, Stockholm and Helsinki sought to keep nuclear weapons out of northern Europe. In the depths of the Cold War, Stockholm proved willing and capable of advancing ambitious, albeit inconsistent, goals when it came to nuclear weapons in Europe. Sweden’s history suggests that disarmament ideas—such as a Nordic nuclear weapon-free zone—were never completely written off, even if they are difficult to imagine in Europe today. Läs artikel

The Evolution of Baltic Military Divisions, fpri.org

Lukas Milevski, Assistant Professor at Leiden University

Ten years ago in 2014, Baltic defense was paltry. The defense budgets of the three Baltic states, but especially Latvia and Lithuania, were suffering from the financial crisis of 2008, and their armies were all negligible. Baltic defense was measured in battalions of about 400-1,000 men, while trying to form brigade-sized forces of 3,000-5,000. Alliance contributions were minimal. In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Crimea, the US deployed mere companies to the Baltic states; after the 2014 Wales and 2016 Warsaw Summits, NATO finally deployed battalion-sized battlegroups. […]

Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic states, has been in the process of establishing its own — purely Estonian — division since December 2022. Its order of battle comprises two relatively light infantry brigades, a headquarters and signal battalion, and artillery, logistics, and ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance) battalions. The second infantry brigade is as yet incomplete and would have to be filled with reservists in case of war, while the first brigade is rather more substantial and organically includes even air defense and engineer battalions, as well as an anti-tank company. It is anticipated that in the event of war in the Baltic, one British armored brigade combat team (either 12th or 20th) from the British 3rd Division would also be deployed to Estonia under the operational command of the 1st Estonian Division, besides other NATO enhanced forward presence units in the country.

Unlike its northern and southern neighbors, Latvia does not aim to field a national division but already since 2019 has instead contributed to a multinational division, MND North, with Denmark and Estonia, and has remained committed to it. It is therefore the oldest division set up for Baltic defense and as such its headquarters were certified by NATO as operationally ready in July 2023. However, its force structure does not appear to be publicly available. It should include two brigades, the Latvian mechanized infantry brigade and the Canadian-led enhanced forward presence brigade, the latter of which should achieve full brigade-level operationally-ready status by 2026. Yet MND North has additionally become the formal affiliation of the 1st Danish Brigade, which is gearing up to be operationally ready, but it is still unclear how this brigade may eventually fit into divisional operations in Baltic defense, if at all.  Läs artikel

Läs också kommentar till beslutet att skicka en svensk bataljon till Lettland.

China Escorts Swedish Police During Boarding of Suspected Sabotage Ship, maritime-executive.com

After weeks of negotiations with the government of China, Swedish police have received permission to board the Chinese bulker Yi Peng 3, which is suspected of intentionally dragging its anchor to sever two subsea cables in the Baltic last month. However, they have not been allowed to question the crew independently: Swedish officials are only present as observers during a Chinese-led flag state boarding and investigation.

Yi Peng 3 has been anchored in the Kattegat since November 18, just outside of Danish territorial seas. Since it is in international waters, Danish officials have no authority to board the ship unless they have strong evidence of a Danish EEZ violation, like illegal fishing – but the cable breaks occurred in the Swedish EEZ, far from Danish waters. Instead, the Yi Peng 3 remained at anchor, guarded by Danish and German law enforcement vessels.

German, Danish and Swedish authorities all want the crew to be questioned, but they have opted to pursue a strictly legal route. Rather than conduct an opposed boarding, they negotiated for permission to board from the vessel’s flag state – China. Chinese authorities engaged in diplomatic discussions, but declined to cooperate with a Swedish law-enforcement boarding until this week. The boarding was Chinese-led, and Swedish police were only present as observers, even though the alleged offense occurred in the Swedish EEZ. Läs artikel

Finland Seizes Russian Oil Tanker After Suspected Undersea Fiber-Optic Cable Sabotage, news.usni.org

Finnish authorities seized the Russian oil tanker Eagle S after the country’s police opened a criminal investigation into the vessel’s possible involvement in another cutting of undersea power and communications cables in the Baltic Sea on Christmas Day, news agencies are reporting.

Finnish police and border guards boarded the vessel and took over the command bridge, Helsinki Police Chief Jari Liukku told a news conference. The vessel was held in Finnish territorial waters, police told The Associated Press, as it investigates the matter as a case of “aggravated criminal mischief.”

Politico reported that the tanker carried 35,000 tons of unleaded petrol that had been loaded in Russian ports. It slowed significantly at the time the submarine cable, known as Estlink 2, was damaged.

An anchor dragged across the cables may have caused the damage.

Four other telecommunications cables between Finland and Estonia and between Finland and Germany were also damaged in the Christmas Day incident involving the tanker that was bound for Egypt. Läs artikel

Pope Francis calls for a ceasefire on all fronts in his prayer ahead of Christmas, apnews.com

Pope Francis called for a ceasefire on all war fronts in his Sunday Angelus prayer ahead of Christmas, condemning the “cruelty” of bombing schools and hospitals in Ukraine and Gaza.

“Let the weapons fall silent and let the Christmas carols ring out!” Francis said, delivering his Sunday blessing from indoors due to a cold and as a precaution ahead of a busy Christmas period.

“Let us pray that at Christmas there will be a ceasefire on all war fronts, in Ukraine, in the Holy Land, throughout the Middle East and throughout the world,” the pope said.

Francis recalled, as he often does, the “battered Ukraine” that continues to be hit by attacks on cities, “which sometimes damage schools, hospitals and churches.”

He also expressed his pain thinking of Gaza, “of such cruelty, to the machine-gunning of children, to the bombing of schools and hospitals … How much cruelty!” Läs artikel

Från defensiv strategi för försvaret av Sverige till offensiv strategi för internationella insatser med ökad risk för involvering i andras krig

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Inriktningen på försvars- och säkerhetspolitikens område läggs nu om i ett uppskruvat tempo. Det sker med vägval som inte självständigt styrs av Sverige utan strömlinjeformas och får sin prägel inom ramarna för Natos operativa planeringsprocess och den löpande implementeringen av DCA-avtalet. Sveriges ÖB Michael Claesson formulerade nyligen i en intervju problematiken så här: ”… för att vi ska se exakt vad som behövs ur ett internationellt perspektiv, vad vi i grunden själva behöver och hur vi får det här att lira ihop”.

Flera saker är slående i den nu pågående omgörningen.

Förvaret av Sverige ska inte längre utgöra grunden för det svenska försvaret

Sverige försvaras numera, heter det ofta, bäst utomlands. Det är emellertid inte Afghanistan, Libyen eller Mali som längre gäller. Insatserna i dessa långt bort liggande länder är överspelade kapitel. Det är även den korta period då fokus åtminstone ideologiskt sett låg på nationellt försvar (men då inte mycket blev gjort i praktiken).

I och med medlemskapet i Nato och DCA-avtalet med USA har pendeln svängt och vi går nu ”all-in” som statsministern nyligen förklarade. Delar av armén flyttas utomlands för operationer i de Baltiska staterna (med början i Lettland), i Finland, kanske i Polen, möjligen även i den indo-pacifiska regionen samt i andra operationsområden som i dagsläget inte är kända men kommer att konkretiseras genom Natos planeringsprocess av de svenska ”förmågebidragen”. Flottan och flygvapnet får nya uppgifter som sträcker sig långt utanför Sveriges gränser.

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