“Russia is lying about its economic strength: sanctions are working – and we need more”, government.se

Elisabeth Svantesson, minister for finance, Sweden Stephanie Lose, minister for economic affairs, Denmark Mart Võrklaev, minister of finance, Estonia Riikka Purra, minister of finance, Finland Arvils Ašeradens, minister of finance, Latvia Gintarė Skaistė, minister of finance, Lithuania Eelco Heinen, minister of finance, Netherlands Andrzej Domański, minister of finance, Poland

[…] President Vladimir Putin and his authoritarian regime are peddling the false narrative that the Russian economy is strong, and that its war machine is unharmed by western sanctions. This is a lie that must be rebutted. In fact, there are many signs that the Russian war economy is deteriorating. The sanctions and other measures to weaken the Russian economy are effective, but even more can be done. We must continue to increase pressure on Putin’s regime and support Ukraine.

During the Nato summit in Washington DC, western leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s defence. […]

While Russian GDP may be growing, the economy is increasingly geared towards the war industry, upheld by large fiscal stimulus. This is not an endless source of growth, nor a sign of a stable economy. The Kremlin’s war factories are already at maximum capacity. Unemployment has fallen to the point that there are reports that Vladimir Putin approved the replacement of imprisonment for forced labour. The tight labour market has put upward pressure on wages, while the weaker ruble increases import prices and is contributing to increasingly high inflation, despite Russian central bank efforts to fight it with high interest rates.

To finance the war, the Russian government has tapped into the liquid assets of Russia’s national wealth fund. Estimates by Bloomberg suggest it has almost halved in size since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as the country sacrifices its future prosperity to wreak havoc abroad. […]

Sanctions must be strengthened – particularly in strategically important sectors like energy, finance and technology; while the enforcement of existing sanctions must be improved. Läs artikel

The Swedish Air Force’s growing role in NATO, edrmagazine.eu

Swedish Air Force’s Commander in Chief, Major General Jonas Wikman, outlined its current state within NATO. […]

The air force is now carrying out Quick Reaction Alerts (QRA) once a day to identify possible hostile aircraft and make its presence felt and it flew its first NATO mission a week ago from Iceland as part of the Nordic Air C2. Airborne Surveillance Control (ASC890) will be the largest Swedish military aid package at € 1.16 Billion and will provide Ukraine with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. Major General Wikman said as its S-100B Argus AEW&C aircraft are being donated to Ukraine, the air force is awaiting the delivery of its three Saab GlobalEyes that will be an integral part of ASC890. […]

As far as pilot training is concerned, basic training will be carried out in Sweden on the Grob G120TP while advanced training will be carried out in Italy under a 10-year contract with the International Flight Training School. Helicopter training takes place in Germany while transport crew training is in the United States. Läs artikel

Veckans citat

”We should not pay too much attention to the U.S. presidential election. Instead, we should concentrate on what matters here and what we can get done. We have spent too long looking to abstract NATO or the mighty America, hoping they’ll do something. It has been laziness and convenience. We should do more ourselves. Then we would not have to worry about U.S. or some other country’s elections, which should not be our problem to begin with.”

Former Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) chief Martin Herem

 

Misstänkt intrång på territorialvatten i östra Finska viken, valtioneuvosto.fi

Ett ryskt fartyg misstänks för en territoriekränkning på finskt havsområde i östra Finska viken.

Den misstänkta territoriekränkningen ägde rum på eftermiddagen i dag den 26 juli 2024.

I egenskap av högsta territorialövervakningsmyndighet leder och samordnar försvarsministeriet territorialövervakningsmyndigheternas verksamhet i territorialövervakningsärenden. Gränsbevakningsväsendet svarar för förundersökningen av territoriekränkningar.

Den senaste konstaterade territoriekränkningen inträffade den 10 juni 2024, då fyra ryska statsluftfartyg befann sig i finskt luftrum utanför Lovisa och Borgå. Läs artikel

Brist på officerare – svårt att bemanna ny styrka, svd.se

Försvarsmakten har brist på yrkesofficerare. Samtidigt kommer uppgifter om att Sverige kan skicka en styrka till Finland – i en redan pressad situation. ”Personalen räcker helt enkelt inte till”, säger Officersförbundets ordförande.

Svenska officerare kan skickas till den nya multinationella Natostyrkan som ska placeras i Finland, vilket SvD rapporterat om tidigare. Samtal förs nu mellan länderna och enligt källor till SvD kan styrkan komma att placeras i finska Lappland.

Hur många svenskar det kan handla om är ännu inte bestämt. Men det diskuteras i ett läge då det är akut brist på yrkesofficerare inom Försvarsmakten. Artikel bakom betalvägg

NORAD intercepts Russian, Chinese bombers off Alaskan coast, washingtonpost.com

U.S. and Canadian fighter jets intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying in international airspace near Alaska on Wednesday, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said, days after U.S. Defense Department officials said that increased Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic region was “very noticeable and concerning.”

NORAD “detected, tracked, and intercepted” the foreign military aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, an area that begins where sovereign airspace ends and which requires the “ready identification of all aircraft in the interest of national security,” NORAD said in a news release Wednesday.

The planes — two Russian TU-95s and two Chinese H-6s — remained in international airspace and did not enter American or Canadian sovereign airspace, it added. Läs artikel

Finland mulls an end to Barents cooperation, thebarentsobserver.com

Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told the Finnish Parliament that the goal is to reach a consensus with Sweden and Norway on the future of the Barents cooperation during 2024.

The Foreign Minister responded to a question raised by Member of Parliament for the Social Democratic Party, Seppo Eskelinen.

The future of Europe’s northernmost cross-border cooperation has been in jeopardy since March 2022, when the Barents Euro-Arctic Council froze all collaboration with Russia due to the aggressor’s full-scale war on Ukraine. Barents Euro-Arctic Council is the highest governing body of the Barents cooperation and is led by the member states foreign ministers.

The cooperation also includes Barents Regional Council, lead by the leaders of the nine northern member regions in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Läs artikel

Three Russian drones targeting Ukraine stray into Nato-member Romania, says air force chief, standard.co.uk

Three Russian drones sent to target Ukraine strayed into Romania, a Nato member, according to Kyiv’s air force chief. Ukrainian forces destroyed 25 Russian attack drones out of 38 launched overnight, Mykola Oleshchiuk said on Thursday.

“Last night, the enemy used 38 Shahed-131/136 attack drones, attacking Ukrainian infrastructure in several areas, including the south of Odesa region and central Ukraine,” explained Ukraine’s air force chief.

He added that three other drones “were lost after crossing the state border with Romania”. He gave no more details and the timing of these alleged incidents was not clear. Läs artikel

Why NATO Expansion Explains Russia’s Actions in Ukraine, internationalaffairs.org.au

Tom Switzer, executive director of the Centre for Independent Studies

The Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine has been primarily driven by the threat of NATO’s expansion along Russia’s border. Its strategic objective is to annex some Ukrainian territory and badly weaken the country so it cannot join NATO.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a chorus of government officials, academics, commentators, and retired bureaucrats and diplomats has dismissed all links between the crisis and the decades-long NATO expansion. Moscow’s aggression, we are told, is all about Vladimir Putin’s imperial impulse—his desire to recreate the Russian empire.

In reality, the Kremlin’s conduct has been primarily driven by the threat of NATO’s expansion along Russia’s border. We had some warning of Russia’s strategic sensibilities three decades ago. Läs artikel

Europe’s warplanes fly to Japan to keep an eye on Russia and China, politico.eu

Germany, France and Italy will take part in joint exercises with Tokyo this summer, as the threats from Moscow and Beijing grow.

Japanese F35 fighter jets teamed up with German Eurofighters for a joint training exercise at the adjacent Chitose base, which brings happy holidaying families back to reality. Russia’s Sakhalin island is a mere 25 miles from the northern tip of the Japanese tourist spot of Hokkaido. One unusually frequent visitor this week was the boss of the German air force, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, who’s on his second visit in as many years. […]

”I cannot speculate about the threat perception of Japan, but [the training] shows that both regions — Europe and Indo-Pacific — [form] one big space of security,” Gerhartz told POLITICO, standing next to a Japanese warplane printed with the German, Spanish and French flags. ”You cannot separate those two regions.”

That’s a big statement for Europe, and a big shift from the old thinking. Since 2022, European defense chiefs have been almost singularly focused on their own theater, busy making plans for an increasingly assertive Russia, which is not only sustaining the war against Ukraine but is also posing a potential threat to NATO’s eastern flank countries. Läs artikel

Framtida möjligheter att bevara den egna kommersiella positionen är en central faktor vid övergripande ställningstaganden i fråga om fred och krig!

Rolf Andersson

Amerikanska statsvetare har ett aktningsvärt inflytande på den i vart fall i väst dominerande diskussionen om krig och fred. Det finns onekligen röster där som det är värda att lyssna till. Men bara ibland och inte så särdeles ofta. Det handlar där framför allt om stormaktspolitik och mindre staters intressen är inte särskilt angelägna ämnen. FN-stadgan och dess våldsförbud behandlas oftast styvmoderligt i dessa kretsar. Den dominerande trenden tycks för närvarande vara att USA ska koncentrera sig på att gå emot och hålla Kina i ”schack”, något som president Joe Bidén helt nyligen förklarade att han var rätt man för. Under Trump, om han går segrande fram, kommer vi att få höra mer om temat ”America first!” och sannolikt aggressivare tongångar. Den kanadensiske professorn Dale Copeland har skrivit en mycket intressant bok: A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China (Princeton,2024). I reklamen för boken heter det något förenklat men ändå träffande: “Hur kommers avgör huruvida Amerika bevarar freden eller går till krig.” Perspektivet är alltså amerikanskt och stormaktspolitiskt. Småstater ges föga plats här, men Copeland belyser viktiga frågeställningar.

Copeland utvecklar sin egen utrikes- och säkerhetspolitiska teori, ”dynamisk realism”, på åtskilliga sidor i boken, där han polemiserar mot andra teoribildningar, bland andra offensiv realism, defensiv realism och olika liberala skolor.

Förenklat kan man säga att Copeland särskilt lyfter fram den betydelse handeln, utbytet av varor mellan länderna, har för fred och säkerhet. Han belyser hur handeln både reducerar och minskar riskerna för internationella kriser. Vinklingen är amerikansk och han följer historiskt, från grundandet av USA, hur landet rört sig från fred till konflikt, inklusive krig, när den handel som krävs för att tillvarata den nationella säkerheten hotas.

Läs mer

Ill-Suited to Reality, lrb.co.uk

Tom Stevenson, contributing editor at the LRB
Nato: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance 
by Sten Rynning.
Yale, 345 pp., £20, March, 978 0 300 27011 2
Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of Nato 
by Peter Apps.
Wildfire, 624 pp., £25, February, 978 1 0354 0575 6
Natopolitanism: The Atlantic Alliance since the Cold War 
edited by Grey Anderson.
Verso, 356 pp., £19.99, July 2023, 978 1 80429 237 2
Natos cheerleaders like to call it the most successful multinational alliance in history. Part of that is down to its longevity. It turned 75 this year, and has now overtaken the Delian League between Greek city-states, formed in 478 bce, which survived for 74 years. The Egyptian-Hittite ‘eternal treaty’ was in place for longer, though it included just two states, where Nato now has 32 members. But this is also a matter of definition: several Indigenous American confederacies – notably the Haudenosaunee, or Five (later Six) Nations, with some form of central council operating since at least the 16th century – can claim a longer lifespan. The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, signed into existence by 23 states in Rio in 1947, also predates Nato, though it isn’t celebrated in anything like the same way – perhaps because the US has a record of attacking the other signatories. Läs artikel