NATO, Deterrence, and the Ukrainian Conflict, toda.org

[…] The permanent basing of the US Army’s 5th Corps headquarters in Poznan, Poland, is an important part of the shift, along with the positioning of rotational troops in the Baltic states and Romania. The US has also concluded a series of bilateral Defence Cooperation Agreements with frontline states, allowing it to establish a number of support facilities in each country next to national airfields, naval bases, infrastructure and other military assets. The sites are largely under US jurisdiction: by ceding sovereignty, the host nations leave it to the US to the determine their specific configurations and roles. These arrangements are outside NATO, and parts of US global military planning.

The strategic nuclear forces of the Alliance, and particularly those of the US, are said to be the supreme guarantee of its security. The British forces, which explicitly contribute to the defence of NATO, and the French ones which are independent but not uncoordinated and always had a European dimension, add complexity to Russia’s decision-making. […]

The crisis of the 1980s led the International Commission on Security and Disarmament (the Palme Commission, after the late Swedish Prime Minister who chaired it) to introduce the concept of Common Security. It said that in the nuclear age, security is not something you can build on your own by unilateral rearmament. It is something you have to build together with you adversary, through measures that are advantageous to both. Today, we are further away from that kind of thinking than at any time since the beginning of arms control sixty years ago, but the concept has it right, so we must hold on to it.    Läs artikel

NATO pushes Arctic space plan to counter Putin, politico.eu

The NATO alliance launched plans to develop a military-grade satellite communications network on Thursday for the Arctic, aimed at bolstering defense against a belligerent Russia in the north.

On the sidelines of a meeting of NATO’s defense ministers in Brussels, a bloc of 13 countries agreed to push forward the Northlink initiative to build out space-based communication systems across the Arctic using existing commercial satellites. The plan involves “leveraging services from communication satellite constellations” to offer up a reliable “multinational communications network for the Arctic,” NATO said. […]

Denmark, Canada, Iceland, Norway and the United States all control Arctic territory and are NATO member countries, along with Sweden and Finland which recently signed up to the alliance All of those are onboard with a letter of intent on Northlink, along with France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

Separately, some 14 NATO member states agreed to launch the so-called Starlift initiative to work on securing rocket launch capacity on Thursday. That alliance includes Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the U.K. and the U.S. Läs artikel

Tidligere forsvarssjef i USA, Mark Milley, frykter å bli stilt for krigsrett dersom Donald Trump blir valgt til USAs neste president i november, forsvaretsforum.no

Det skriver den mangeårige politiske reporteren for The Washington Post, Bob Woodward, i sin siste bok, ifølge The Guardian.

Milley var amerikansk hærsjef fra 2015 til 2019 og forsvarssjef fra 2019 til 2023, men er nå pensjonert. Dermed ville Trump vært nødt til å kalle han tilbake i tjeneste, før han eventuelt skulle kunne stille Milley for krigsrett.

Bakgrunnen for Milleys konflikt med Trump, er at han flere ganger har kommet med krass kritikk av Trumps handlinger som president.

— Ingen har noensinne utgjort en større trussel mot dette landet, skal Milley ha sagt, ifølge Washington Post-reporteren.

At han frykter krigsrett, stammer fra at Trump i 2020 skal ha ønsket å stille tidligere admiral William McRaven og spesialstyrke-general Stanley McChrystal for krigsrett etter at de ytret seg kritisk til Trump i media. Førstnevnte er mannen som ledet operasjonen som endte med likvideringen av Osama Bin Laden i 2011, mens McChrystal ledet toktet som drepte en annen al-Qaida-topp i 2006. […]

Den tidligere forsvarssjefen var svært aktiv i sin støtte til Ukraina, men er bedre kjent for å nekte Trump å sette inn amerikanske styrker mot demonstranter i 2020. Trump skal ha krevd ubestridt lojalitet fra hans militære ledere. Også dette har Milley vært åpen motstander av.

— Vi sverger ikke troskap til en konge, dronning, diktator eller tyrann. Vi sverger ikke troskap til et individ, men til grunnloven og til USA, sa Milley under en konferanse på en militærbase i Arlington, Virginia.

Milley har i ettertid mottatt regelmessige drapstrusler, skriver The Guardian. Läs artikel

Mystery still surrounds death of revered UN chief Hammarskjöld, 63 years after tragic plane crash, news.un.org

One of the most enduring mysteries in United Nations history – the 1961 plane crash that killed Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld and all on board as he sought to broker peace in the Congo – will linger on, with a new assessment announced on Friday suggesting that “specific and crucial” information continues to be withheld by a handful of Member States. […]

Over the years, the UN General Assembly has mandated a series of inquiries into the death of Mr. Hammarskjöld and those of his party. The most recent, in December 2022, was led by Mohamed Chande Othman, former Chief Justice of Tanzania, with the formal title of “Eminent Person”. Mr. Othman also led several previous investigations into the fateful crash and the events surrounding it.On Friday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres transmitted Mr. Othman’s latest report to the Assembly.

According to the UN’s Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq, “significant new information” has been submitted to the inquiry for this latest update.

This included probable intercepts by Member States of communications related to the crash, the capacity of Katanga’s armed forces, or others, to mount an attack on SE-BDY and the involvement of foreign paramilitary or intelligence personnel in the area at the time. It also included additional new information relevant to the context and surrounding events of 1961.

“At this juncture, [Mr. Othman] assesses it to remain plausible that an external attack or threat was a cause of the crash. [He] notes that the alternative hypotheses that appear to remain available are that the crash resulted from sabotage or unintentional human error,” Mr. Haq said.

However, Mr. Othman assesses so far that it is “almost certain” specific, crucial and so far undisclosed information exists in the archives of Member States, Mr. Haq said. He noted that Mr. Othman has not received, to date, specific responses to his queries from some Member States believed to be holding useful information.

“The Secretary-General has personally followed up on [Mr. Othman’s] outstanding requests for information and calls upon Member States to release any relevant records in their possession,” Mr. Haq added.

“With significant progress having been made, the Secretary-General calls on all of us to renew our resolve and commitment to pursue the full truth of what happened on that fateful night in 1961.” Läs artikel

Arktiske forsvarsministre: Vil fordype samarbeidet om sikkerhet og forsvar i regionen, highnorthnews.com

[…] – I et raskt skiftende geopolitisk landskap preget av nye utfordringer, har Arktis i økende grad blitt et globalt fokuspunkt, sier partene i fellesuttalelsen.

De framholder at følgende problemstillinger understreker behovet for dypere samvirke mellom likesinnede arktiske stater:

– Klimaendringer har dyptgående innvirkning på det strategiske og operasjonelle miljøet, og voksende tilgang til ressurspotensialet i Arktis lokker nye ikke-arktiske aktører til regionen. Potensielle motstandere utvikler raskt sine militære styrkers evner til å operere både i nordområdene og den sirkumpolare arktiske regionen.

– Russlands illegale og uprovoserte invasjon av Ukraina har skapt alvorlige hindre for internasjonalt samarbeid og forverret det euro-atlantiske sikkerhetsmiljøet.

Finland og Sverige tiltredelse i Nato innebærer en betydelig styrking av alliansens kapabiliteter i Arktis, poengterer partene og fortsetter:

– Ettersom alle likesinnede arktiske stater nå tilhører alliansen, bekrefter vi vår ledende rolle i Natos arbeid knyttet til regionen og betoner viktigheten av å opprettholde troverdig avskrekking og forsvar i hele det euro-atlantiske området – inkludert i våre nordlige regioner.

De arktiske forsvarsministrene og representantene gir også uttrykk for en fortsatt ambisjon om lavspenning og stabilitet i nord:

– Våre lands felles ambisjon om å opprettholde lavspenning i regionen har tjent som grunnlag for våre multilaterale relasjoner, og vil fortsette å veilede vårt samarbeid i framtida, framholder de og fortsetter:

– Veiledet av kjerneprinsipper om multilateralt samarbeid, territoriell integritet og opprettholdelse av en regelbasert internasjonal orden, er vi forpliktet til å styrke vårt samarbeid for å adressere komplekse globale utfordringer og bevare Arktis som en stabil, fredelig og velstående region.Läs artikel

Trump Opposes Regime Change In Iran, theamericanconservative.com

Former President Donald Trump came out against regime change in Iran in a Wednesday podcast interview.

Trump was speaking on the PBD Podcast and was asked by the host, Patrick Bet-David, whether he desires a change in Iran’s form of government and a restoration of the Shah.

“We can’t get totally involved at all, you know. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it,” Trump said.

In the interview, Trump also indicated that he wants Iran to be successful, but opposes the country’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Läs artikel

Scholz Announces Readiness to Negotiate with Putin, theamericanconservative.com

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated his readiness to negotiate a “just peace” in a Wednesday speech to the Bundestag. Scholz and Putin have not spoken since December 2022

Scholz indicated that this includes a willingness to negotiate with Putin. “If the question is whether we will also talk to the President of Russia, we say: yes, we will,” the chancellor stated.

Läs artikel

Kortare väntan för amerikanska styrkor på väg in i Sverige, gp.se

Under torsdagen fattade regeringen två beslut kopplade till försvarssamarbetsavtalet med USA, DCA. De innebär att Försvarsmakten ges ansvar för processer om amerikanska styrkors in- och utresor, import och export, samt tillträde till svenskt territorium fram till och med 2025.

– I det arbete som nu följer kommer Försvarsmakten att ha en viktig sammanhållande roll, kommenterade försvarsminister Pål Jonson (M) besluten i ett pressmeddelande.

Från Försvarsmaktens sida är reaktionen till de två regeringsbesluten positiv.

– I normalfall behöver vi gå till regeringen för att få beslut om tillträde för att förband ska få resa in i landet. Nu får vi mandat att besluta det själva. Jag ser positivt på att det ger ökad flexibilitet och går snabbare, säger Johan Pekkari vid försvarsstaben. Läs artikel

Zelensky presents ’victory plan’ to Ukrainian parliament, bbc.com

[…] The plan outlined by Zelensky consists of five key points:

  • Inviting Ukraine to join the Nato military alliance
  • The strengthening of Ukrainian defence against Russian forces, including getting permission from allies to use their long-range weapons on Russian territory, and the continuation of Ukraine’s military operations on Russian territory to avoid creation of the ”buffer zones” in Ukraine
  • Containment of Russia via a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package deployed on Ukrainian soil
  • Joint protection by the US and the EU of Ukraine’s critical natural resources and joint use of their economic potential
  • For the post-war period only: replacing some US troops stationed across Europe with Ukrainian soldiers

Three ”addendums” remain secret and will only be shared with Ukraine’s partners, Zelensky said. Läs artikel

The geopolitical landscape in the Arctic is more complex than many realize, nord.no

Andreas Østhagen, affiliated with the High North Center and a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, is one of the researchers who will be present in the Icelandic capital. […]

– In reality, NATO is primarily a tool for its member countries. NATO doesn’t have a specific Arctic policy, just as it doesn’t have a specific Mediterranean policy.[…]

He’ll also discuss the increasing interest of non-Arctic states in the region and the geopolitical significance of areas like the Barents and Bering Seas.

– It’s in these areas that NATO countries, Norway and the US, meet Russia and must balance increased military activity with the need for contact and dialogue around fish stocks, search and rescue, and maritime transport. […]

”In the north – right across the border – we face Russian nuclear weapons. The Russian Northern Fleet sails outside our living room.” Läs artikel

 

Norge sender offiserer til atomøvelse, forsvaretsforum.no

– Norge sender stabsoffiserer til Natos kjernevåpenøvelse Steadfast Noon for å ivareta kunnskap om en viktig del av Nato-samarbeidet, sier statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson (Ap) i UD i en uttalelse til Nettavisen.

Norge har aldri deltatt direkte i den årlige øvelsen, men deltok som observatør i 2023, ifølge avisen. Stabsoffiserene som sendes, blir Norges første direkte deltakelse i en atomvåpenøvelse siden den kalde krigen, opplyser avisen. Läs artikel

Landmark flight from from the Mediterranean to Barents Sea, thebarentsobserver.com

British, U.S. and Swedish electronic gathering flights close to Russia’s border inside the Arctic Circle have become regular in the years after Moscow launched its war on Ukraine.

The flight this week, however, was a first-of-a-kind.

With take-off from Souda Bay in Greece, the plane flew over Bulgaria, the Black Sea, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Norway before conducting a usual sortie outside the Murmansk region, home to Russia’s ballistic missile submarines.

From there, the plane made it back to its home base Waddington military air base in England. […]

Except in Norway’s northeastern corner, the plane approached close the Belarus and Russian border over Poland, the Baltics, Finland and the Barents Sea. Norway has self-imposed restraint on NATO activity near its border with Russia. The UK plane therefor had to circumnavigate to west of Tana and Varanger before flying eastwards again in international airspace over the Barents Sea. Läs artikel