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Japan’s new PM may have a bone to pick with the US , responsiblestatecraft.org

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Alliance minders in Washington and Tokyo are feeling some anxiety today. Shigeru Ishiba has won the contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which means he will become Japan’s next prime minister, succeeding Kishida Fumio — probably Tuesday. […]
Ishiba, who is 67 and was first elected to the Diet in 1986, has vowed to shake up the 72-year-old security alliance between the United States and Japan, a bilateral alliance that in recent years has focused on maintaining U.S. primacy in East Asia and blocking China’s rise. He views it (correctly, I think) as “asymmetrical,” with Washington largely dictating Japanese foreign policy.
“I don’t think Japan is a truly independent nation yet,” Ishiba, the former defense minister, wrote in a book published just before the leadership race.
Some have called Ishiba a Gaullist; he certainly is a nationalist. In his fifth run for the top party position, he suggested that Japan share command and control over U.S. troops on Japanese soil, and even raised the possibility of stationing some Japanese soldiers on American territory (Guam).
Most controversial, though, has been his sweeping call for an “Asian NATO” that would include not just Japan but also South Korea and several Southeast Asian nations. This proposal, if adopted (and that’s unlikely anytime soon), would replace the hub-and-spokes pattern of bilateral and mini-lateral alliances that emerged after World War II and that are dominated by the United States.
The U.S. has about 85,000 troops stationed at military bases throughout East Asia, primarily in Japan and Korea. It also leads bilateral alliances with the Philippines, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand. And it has been trying to draw India, which shares American hostility toward China, into its web by, for example, including it in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with Japan and Australia.
Ishiba’s proposal for a multilateral security alliance in Asia has fostered strange bedfellows in opposition. Beijing repeatedly has condemned any NATO-like framework that would try to contain or confront China. But Washington, too, dislikes a proposal that could undermine its central position in Asian security networks. A Biden official, speaking anonymously, dismissed it as “fantasy,” while Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, criticized it as hasty. “It’s too early,” he told a forum in Washington, “to talk about collective security in that context.” Läs artikel

Den marktaktiska ledningen för Natos nordliga område främjar alliansens försvarsplanering, puolustusvoimat.fi

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Natos försvarsministrar gav i juni sitt politiska stöd för att grunda en multinationell Marktaktisk ledning för alliansens nordliga område (Multi-Corps Land Component Command, MCLCC). Stödet bekräftades på Natos toppmöte i Washington. Det är tänkt att ledningen skulle verka under Alliansens försvarsgrensgemensamma ledning i Norfolk (Joint Force Command Norfolk, JFCNF).

I början av det här året uttryckte Finland sin villighet att bli förläggningsort för den Marktaktiska ledningen för Natos nordliga område och understöddes av de allierade länderna. Enligt Försvarsmaktens kommendör, general Janne Jaakkola, har Försvarsmakten god beredskap att fortsätta med helhetsplaneringen och inleda det behövliga verkställandet:

– Natos nya marktaktiska ledning som ska förläggas i Finland skapar tillsammans med Finlands nationella prestationsförmågor en stark försvarsledningsförmåga i alla säkerhetslägen. Ledningen möjliggör planerings- och ledningsförmåga för alliansens trupper i de nordliga områdena i alla säkerhetslägen. Placeringen av den nya ledningen i närheten av Arméstaben främjar samverkan mellan nationella- och allianstrupper och skapar behövliga synergifördelar för verksamheten, säger general Jaakkola. Läs artikel

Israel’s Tally of War Crimes in Lebanon Increases in Wake of Exploding Pagers, marjoriecohn.com

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Israel escalated attacks against Lebanon on September 23, marking the deadliest day of Israeli bombings in that country since 2006. Israel’s strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as the capital city of Beirut, left a death toll of at least 274, including women, children and paramedics. The Israeli military targeted “medical centres, ambulances and cars of people trying to flee,” according to Al Jazeera, which cited Lebanon’s Health Minister Firass Abiad as the source for the information. Israel also targeted civilian homes, which it claimed were housing Hezbollah weapons.

This latest targeting of Lebanese civilians comes on the heels of Israel’s detonation of hand-held electronic devices in civilian areas of Lebanon on September 17 and 18, when Israeli forces remotely triggered multiple explosions of electronic pagers and walkie-talkies that killed at least 37 people, including a 9-year-old girl and an 11-year-old boy, and maimed or injured 3,250 people, 200 critically. […]

The independent UN experts urged states to bring to justice those who ordered and executed the attacks, under the well-established doctrine of universal jurisdiction. Läs artikel

Sweden’s National Statement at the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, regeringen.se

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Minister for Foreign Affairs Maria Malmer Stenergard on behalf of Sweden.

[…] The UN Charter – the sovereign equality of all states, the peaceful settlement of disputes, the prohibition of the threat or use of force against any state – is being challenged. We must stand by the Charter.

Sweden’s strong defence of international law, including the UN Charter, is based on the understanding that both our own security and that of other countries depends on it.

Ensuring respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all states – both large and small – is in our common interest. At its core lies the need for a global system that is open, predictable and applies equally to all.

In too many places around the world, including in Sweden’s immediate neighbourhood, we are witnessing the consequences of violations of the rules and principles we have all agreed to.

Since the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014, and with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has brutally invaded the territory of another UN Member State. This Assembly has strongly and repeatedly condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as a blatant violation of international law, including the UN Charter. Läs talet

The failure of British and Nato deterrence, prospectmagazine.co.uk

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Rupert Charles De Mauley chairs the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee
[…] The war has also revealed the limitations of British military strength. The UK’s Armed Forces lack the necessary mass, resilience and coherence to respond to prolonged, high-intensity conflict. This also limits their deterrent effect. Years of strategic neglect have left our forces stretched thin and limited in size. It is often said that the UK does not require the same number of land forces as its continental partners due to its geographical location and that, in a conflict with Russia, Germany, Poland and Finland would provide ground forces. But this is incorrect. In the event of a war with Russia, we would have to be prepared to deploy soldiers in support of Nato.
Further, Ukraine has repeatedly suffered attacks on its critical national infrastructure, from power lines to hospitals. This will likely be a feature of future conflicts. Safeguarding and repairing our critical national infrastructure requires organised manpower, but at present, we are not equipped to field the troops, equipment, and supplies needed for a sustained war effort or to protect critical national infrastructure at home.
Much of this vulnerability stems from a military structure designed around the assumption that modern conflicts will be brief, rather than protracted. The size of the British Army, for example, is inadequate for longer-term fighting. Recruitment and retention have become increasingly challenging. Our Reserves remain an underutilised asset that could help build much-needed mass, but only if the government properly funds and defines their role. Läs artikel

Lane Ukraine war: Zelensky’s pleas for help are getting drowned out in the clamour from the Middle East, theconversation.com

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As discussions at the UN this week have underlined, there is also some diplomatic momentum building up behind a joint proposal by Brazil and China that was initially launched in May. Brazil’s president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, pushed the plan during his speech at the UN general assembly on September 24, as did China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi.
Like previous proposals from China and Brazil individually, as well as from Indonesia, a group of African states and Saudi Arabia, the joint Brazilian-Chinese plan calls for a ceasefire along the current frontlines. Negotiations would then follow.
Ukraine fears, rightly, that this would entrench the status quo and effectively amount to Kyiv giving up territory illegally annexed by Russia. It would not guarantee any fruitful negotiations but give Russia time and space to regroup and rebuild its armed forces for a likely future escalation. None of this is acceptable to Ukraine and its allies as Zelensky made clear in his speech at the UN. Läs artikel

The European consensus on Ukraine is shifting, unherd.com

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War is the overriding focus of the UN General Assembly in New York, and Western momentum behind Ukraine hangs in the balance. President Joe Biden used his farewell speech to the UN to urge allies not to “let up on our support” until “Ukraine wins a just and durable peace”. Yet with the US still blocking the use of long-range missiles to strike deep within Russia, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal to Biden yesterday, Western focus appears, instead, to be shifting to the need for serious peace negotiations with Russia.
The growing consensus behind a realist approach was exemplified by Czech President Petr Pavel in a New York Times interview published this week. Pavel, a former Nato Military Committee Chairman, said “the most probable outcome of the war will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.” Both sides will need to make compromises; Pavel added that “to talk about a defeat of Ukraine or a defeat of Russia — it simply will not happen.”
Calls from a president known in his country as an anti-Russian Nato hawk for Kyiv to be “realistic” are an indication of how Western opinion is shifting. In the Czech Republic, as elsewhere in Europe, those calling for Ukrainian compromise and a negotiated end to the war were long dismissed by politicians as Putin sympathisers. Now, though, the weight of popular opinion behind peace cannot be ignored. Two-thirds of Czechs would support a quick end to the war even if that means Russia keeping Ukrainian territory, while research shows a preference for Ukraine to be pushed into a peace deal over being supported to regain its land among the EU’s three great powers — France, Germany and Italy. Läs artikel

Nå rykker Europa 40 år tilbake, dagsavisen.no

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Sverre Lodgaard Utenrikskommentator

Det er 40 år siden sist. Den gangen gjaldt det de såkalte euromissilene – Pershing II og kryssermissiler på vestlig side og langtrekkende SS-20-missiler på sovjetisk – i en ny omdreining av den kalde krigen. Nå dreier det seg om et bredere spekter av mellomdistansevåpen i en langt mer komplisert verden.

De russiske Iskander-missilene, med rekkevidde rundt 500 kilometer, produseres i mange varianter og er bl.a. stasjonert i Kaliningrad og Belarus. Det hypersoniske Kinzjal-missilet skytes ut fra fly og kan nå mål 2000 kilometer borte. Disse våpnene brukes i Ukraina i et omfang som har fått russerne til å be om påfyll fra Nord-Korea og Iran. Erfaringene fra krigen er sikkert verdifulle med tanke på videreutvikling av arsenalet, men det vil ta tid å gjenoppbygge det.

På vestlig side er USA og Tyskland enige om å stasjonere nye missiler ved det amerikanske hovedkvarteret i Wiesbaden. Det ble klart under NATOs toppmøte i juli. Dark Eagle-missilet har en hastighet 17 ganger lydens og en rekkevidde på 2700 kilometer. Det er ferdig testet og klart for utplassering i 2026. To varianter av tidligere sjøbaserte missiler skal også dit. I tillegg har mange europeiske land egne missiler og planer om nye i ulike samarbeidsformasjoner. […]

Europa blir mer og mer filtret inn i USAs globale disposisjoner. Det kommer til uttrykk på flere plan. Flere av de nye amerikanske missilene som skal til Wiesbaden bruker samme utskytingsrampe, og den ble i år utplassert for øvelser både på Bornholm og i Filippinene. Hovedkvarteret i Wiesbaden er én av fem baser som skal samordne amerikanske operasjoner i ulike deler av verden. Tre av dem ligger i Stillehavsområdet og understreker hvor viktig dette operasjonsområdet er. Tankegangen er også at angrep i ett område ikke behøver å lede til motangrep samme sted, men kan besvares et annet sted hvor fienden er mer sårbar og hvor det er mer å vinne – det som kalles «horisontal opptrapping». Hvis denne trenden fortsetter kan Europa bli trukket inn i en krig som i utgangspunktet ikke er «vår». Läs artikel

Spionasje er grunnfjellet i USAs forhold til Norge, nordnorskdebatt.no

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Bård Wormdal, forfatter og journalist, Vadsø

Som statsminister besøkte Erna Solberg president Donald Trump i Det hvite Hus 10. januar 2018. I Trumps takkebrev etter besøket var det Norges rolle som «øyne og ører» i nord som ble først framhevet i Trump-administrasjonens takk til Norge.

Tidligere forsvarsminister Anders C. Sjaastad skrev i sin bok Den kalde krigen og Norges sikkerhet at etterretningssamarbeidet mellom USA og Norge var Norges viktigste militære bidrag til vestlig samarbeid under den kalde krigen. […]

Tiden det vil kunne ta for Russland å forberede og gjennomføre et militært angrep på Norge eller USA er drastiskredusert. Det betyr at behovet for å følge alle militære bevegelser kontinuerlig har økt kraftig. Samtidig er detåpenbart at det amerikansk-norske etterretningssamarbeidet utvides. Her er noen eksempler:

  • USA bygger nå i samarbeid med Etterretningstjeneste den første bakkestasjonen utenfor USA for et nytt nett av flere hundre satellitter for etterretning og andre militære oppgaverpå Andenes i Nordland.
  • NTOC, en cyber-avdeling i den amerikanske etterretningsorganisasjonen NSA, har rangert Etterretningstjenesten som en av sine to nærmeste utenlandske partnere. Etterretningstjenesten og NSA innhenter og deler cyber-data om det russiske politiske lederskapet.
  • De siste årene har USA brukt 10 milliarder kroner på en ny radar i Finnmark. Globus-systemet i Vardø er verdens mest avanserte, ifølge Etterretningstjenesten. Läs artikel

 

Russian Investments in The Arctic Offer a Glimpse of Putin’s Arctic Visions, highnorthnews.com

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Researchers with the Business Index North (BIN) project have investigated Russia’s Arctic investments. According to a new report, they have found that Russia accounts for 50-60 per cent of all Arctic investments. The rest is divided among the seven other Arctic nations; Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, USA and Canada.

The research indicates Russia’s strategic positioning in the Arctic region and the importance of following developments closely in the years to come.

”There is a strong will from Russia to develop the region”, says Andrey Mineev, head of the BIN project, in a press release from the High North Center for Business and Governance.

The largest investments take place in the Yamalo-Nenets, in the far north-west of the Siberian plain. Together with the regions of Sakha (Yakutia), Krasnoyarsk, Komi, Nenets and Murmansk, these areas account for 80 per cent of Arctic investments. The investments are linked to, among other things, mineral extraction, production and transport. Läs artikel

Long-range missiles to hit Russia: Where does NATO stand on Ukraine demand? aljazeera.com

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is engaged in his largest push yet to get more long-range Western missiles along with the permission to use them deep inside Russian territory. […]

The Ukrainian effort comes as NATO remains divided on aspects of its approach to the war with Russia, particularly on the use of long-range weapons that could escalate the conflict.

Ukraine is already using long-range missiles, fighter aircraft and other high-grade weaponry provided by its Western allies to hit Russian targets in Crimea and other occupied areas inside Ukraine. […]

From the US, Ukraine wants more of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). The system can shoot ballistic missiles that can carry cluster munitions up to a range of 300km (190 miles).

This means that they can hit Russian military bases and runways from which Moscow launches attacks against Ukrainian bases, along with towns and cities and energy infrastructure.

The Storm Shadow missiles of the United Kingdom, which are cruise missiles launched from aircraft, are also capable of reaching targets deep inside Russia as they boast a range of up to 250km (155 miles). The French equivalent of these missiles, known as Scalp, has similar capabilities. Läs artikel

Extra ändringsbudget för 2024 – Ytterligare materiel och ekonomiskt stöd till Ukraina, riksdagen.se

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Riksdagen sa ja till regeringens förslag om att skänka ytterligare försvarsmateriel och ge ekonomiskt stöd till Ukraina.

Försvarsmateriel ska skänkas i form av exempelvis luftvärnsrobotar, stridsbåt 90, utbildningsmateriel, stridsvagnsminor och pansarskott. Försvarsmakten bedöms kunna avvara försvarsmaterielen under en begränsad tid. Det ekonomiska stödet omfattar bland annat insatser för utbildnings- och övningsverksamhet i Ukraina samt bidrag till fonder.

Sammantaget innebär förslagen att statens utgifter för 2024 ökar med cirka 0,8 miljarder kronor och att regeringen under 2024 får vidta åtgärder som innebär utgifter om ytterligare cirka 3,8 miljarder kronor för år 2025 och senare. Läs protokollet