From: Lawrence S. Eagleburger
Parting Thoughts, U.S. Foreign Policy in the Years Ahead, January 5, 1993
In a few weeks, you will become the first Secretary of State confirmed by the Senate in the post-Cold War era. The world that awaits you is a much different place than the one you and I have known through many years of government service. It is a world in the midst of revolutionary transition, in which you will have both an historic opportunity to shape a new international order and a sobering collection of problems to contend with.
During your tenure, many achievements are possible: a genuine new partnership with Japan for global economic growth and security; a new trans-Atlantic compact linking us to the European democracies; the gradual incorporation of a reforming Russia and the East Europeans into a stable European system; peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula; normalization of relations with a reforming Vietnam; the departure of Castro and the peaceful emergence of a free Cuba; expansion of free trade arrangements and consolidation of democratic institutions throughout the Hemisphere; nonracial democracy in South Africa; the invigoration of UN peacekeeping and peacemaking capabilities; and, not least, a whole series of Arab-Israeli peace agreements.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that there are at least as many troubles awaiting you as opportunities. Three immediate problems top the list, in my view: (1) the possible outhreak of a general Balkan war; (2) a breakdown of reform in Russia and a reversion to some form of authoritarian rule; and (3) the continuing threat of deepening global recession and trade wars between regional blocs, fueled by a collapse of the Uruguay Round and domestic political weaknesses throughout the West. Läs brevet