NATO is currently improving its deterrence and defence posture. It is simultaneously shifting its military strategy from a model of deterrence by reinforcement to one of deterrence by denial.
NATO’s evolving posture and strategy in Northern Europe should be underpinned by a more explicit division of labour. The regional allies and stakeholders can be divided into four categories in terms of their role in regional security: frontline nations, hubs, security providers and the ultimate security guarantor. […]
Finland’s role as a frontline nation is indisputable. Its land border with Russia is longer than that of any other ally. More importantly, Finland is located close to two vital Russian strategic locations – the St. Petersburg region and Kola Peninsula. Finland’s ability to defend its territory directly protects Northern Sweden and the critical coasts of Northern Norway, which are needed to control the North Atlantic sea lines. The defence of these vital maritime routes thus starts from Finnish Lapland. Furthermore, the Finnish territory provides NATO with additional strategic depth for defending the Baltic states, particularly Estonia. As a new ally, Finland must be particularly mindful of developing its capacity to receive and host allied reinforcements.
For Sweden, NATO membership may result in a major transformation in its national defence identity. During the Cold War, as a non-aligned country, Sweden built a formidable defence capacity aimed at denying Soviet armed aggression through Finland and across the Baltic Sea. As a NATO ally, it will primarily act as a staging area, facilitating onward-moving reinforcements for operations in Finland and the Baltic states. This role as a hub would also entail acquiring capabilities and functions that would directly and indirectly support the defence of frontline nations, particularly in the land theatre of the European Arctic.
Norway’s clear priority remains the maritime domain of the European Arctic. It has a long coastline, and the adjacent sea areas constitute a vital buffer against Russian naval operations in the North Atlantic. Although its border with Russia makes it a frontline nation, it is also increasingly a hub facilitating allied operations in the frontline. For the first time, Norway shares a land border with its allies, which improves Norwegian security. However, it also means that it is no longer the sole destination of allied reinforcements in the North but also a reception area for forces moving towards the frontline. Indeed, its role in securing free sea lanes and facilitating allied reinforcements will gain importance.
Denmark is currently rebuilding its territorial capabilities. From a geostrategic point of view, as during the Cold War, it remains the guardian of the Danish straits, which connect the Baltic Sea to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. It therefore plays a significant role in defending the sea lines in its adjacent sea areas. This is a task that demands considerable naval capabilities. Unlike during the Cold War, Denmark is not a frontline nation. Rather, it is a hub, offering a potential transit and base area for allied forces. It could also provide direct support for allies, most notably the Baltic states. Currently, its troops are present in Estonia and Latvia, and it is one of the framework nations of Headquarters Multinational Division North in Latvia. Läs studien