[…] Dersom man forventer en invasjon over land fra øst gjennom Finnmark og videre mot sørvest langs E-6, gir det mening å forsterke Finnmark og konsentrere styrke i Troms.  Da er «døren til Norge» ganske smal, og det trengs en relativt liten hær for å stenge den. Om det derimot tenkes at kysten er døren til Norge, er den ­veldig bred, og en fiende kan velge hvor han vil lande.  

Jeg tror at vi trenger et maritimt kystforsvar som kan ha reell kontroll i kystsonen i fred og krise. Vi trenger en hær som ved å forflytte seg i kystsonen kan gå raskt fra spredning til konsentrasjon – og omvendt. Både Hæren og Sjøforsvaret må beherske kystsonen som slagfelt. De spesielle topografiske og oseanografiske forhold på kyst­en kan være en styrkemultiplikator for dem som mestrer å utnytte disse forholdene militært. Dette gjelder like mye for bakkestyrker som for sjøstridskrefter. 

Hva skal til? At Hæren får tilgang til noen av de enorme sivile ressursene i kyst- og offshoreflåten og at Sjøforsvaret får litt færre fregatter, men mange relativt billige båter som fungerer innaskjærs. Med en edruelig tilnærming blir dette ikke veldig dyrt. Men det krever også at forsvarsgrein­ene i mye større grad må snakke sammen.

Kontrollerer man kysten, kontrollerer man Norge. Läs artikel

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at at least two US targets in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Tehran ”concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” after the second wave of missiles.
• US President Donald Trump said he will deliver a speech on Wednesday after an assessment of damages and casualties.

Iran has launched ballistic missiles targeting the US presence in Iraq, including Ain Assad airbase. US President Donald Trump has said he will deliver a speech later on Wednesday.

07:37 Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the the ”US is Iran’s enemy.”

He described the attack on the US targets as a ”slap in the face” to the US. Crowds who he addressed chanted ”Death to America!” and ”Death to Israel!”[…]

07:26 Following the example of the US Federal Aviation Authority, many commercial airlines have announced they are rerouting flights over the Middle East today, including Qantas and Malaysia Airlines.

07:20 ”The US media has quoted US officials and said there are no indications of US casualties,” said DW’s Washington DC correspondent Pablo Foley Elias. ”Let’s not speculate; let’s see what comes out of the investigations.”

Previously, Iran claimed that 80 ”American terrorists” had been killed in the missile strikes.

07:09Poland have reported no casualties among their military personnel in Iraq. Läs artikel

Donald Trump har hotat attackera kulturella mål i Iran, där flera kulturarvskatter med tusenåriga historier finns bevarade. Att utplåna dem skulle vara ett krigsbrott och försvarsdepartementet Pentagon har tagit avstånd från presidentens hot.

Det var på lördagen, dagen efter att den iranske generalen Qassem Soleimani mördats i en amerikansk drönarattack, som Donald Trump först hotade att angripa kulturella mål i Iran. De skulle enligt presidenten finnas med bland 52 iranska platser som var hotade i fall att Iran hämnades mordet genom att attackera amerikaner eller amerikanska tillgångar. […]

Mark Klamberg, docent i folkrätt och lektor vid Stockholms universitet, betonar att den primära frågan handlar om huruvida USA över huvud taget har rätt att använda våld mot eller i Iran, något som är mycket tvivelaktigt. I andra skedet kommer man till frågan vad som är legitimt i händelse av en väpnad konflikt. Att angripa kulturarvsskyddade platser är det inte, enligt Klamberg. Läs artikel

Andrew Bacevich, President of the Quincy Institute, released his latest book this week, “The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory.” Harper’s Magazine will host the official launch event to Tuesday evening in New York (see details here) and we sat down with Andrew to discuss the book’s raison d’être:

Andrew Bascevich:  It’s called “The Age of Illusions,” with the subtitle, “How America Squandered Its Cold Victory.” In a narrow sense, the book gives my answer to the how-we-got-Trump question. More broadly, it describes how the United States went from “We’re number one!” euphoria when the Berlin Wall fell to a deeply divided nation installing in the White House someone manifestly unqualified to serve as president – all in just a bit more than a quarter-century.  Something had obviously gone wrong and I try to identify that something. Läs intervjun

Det har tagit två och ett halvt år för Gazprom att förverkliga gasrörsprojektet som kallas TurkStream. Bygget inleddes i maj 2017 och blev klart i november i fjol.

I dag invigs projektet högtidligen av presidenterna Vladimir Putin och Recep Tayyip Erdoğan som samtidigt tar chansen att diskutera andra frågor. Kriget i Syrien, situationen i Libyen och det allt skarpare läget kring Irak finns på agendan.

Det första avtalet om att bygga gasröret längs Svarta havets botten mellan ryska Anapa och turkiska Kiyiköi ingick Ryssland och Turkiet i december 2014. Det säger sig självt att en av avsikterna med röret var att minska transporterna av rysk gas genom Ukraina. Ryssland hade ju samma år annekterat Krim och fått igång kriget i östra Ukraina. Röret är hela 930 kilometer långt och har lagts rekorddjupt, hela två kilometer under havsytan. Läs artikel

Growing security concerns in the Gulf region has prompted Germany to ”thin out” the number of soldiers in Iraq. Its military presence will be reduced particularly in Baghdad and Taji.

Germany has reduced the number of its troops stationed in Iraq due to growing regional security concerns, the Bundeswehr confirmed via a press release on Monday. Overnight, 35 German soldiers were brought to either Kuwait or Jordan, the military said.

”These forces can be brought back at any time if training in Iraq is to resume.”

The German military contingent in the country will be ”temporarily thinned out,” with around 30 out of the 130 personnel serving in the country to be redeployed to neighboring countries, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had said in a letter to their ministries.

The transfer mainly applied to soldiers stationed in Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, and Taji to the north.

Iraq’s parliament voted for anti-IS coalition soldiers to leave the country following the fatal drone attack on Qassem Soleimani. Läs artikel

A Chinese envoy said Monday that China is committed to playing a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East and the Gulf region.

”China follows the situation very closely and the pressing task at the moment is to prevent the situation from further escalating and running out of control. As a permanent member of the Security Council, China is carrying out active diplomatic efforts,” Zhang Jun, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, told reporters at the UN headquarters in New York.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi has had phone conversations with Russian, French and Iranian foreign ministers in firm commitment to regional peace and stability, and China opposes arbitrary use of force in international relations, according to the envoy.

”The U.S. unilateral adventurist acts have violated basic norms governing international relations and led to aggravation of tensions,” Zhang said.

”We urge the U.S. side not to abuse force and call on relevant parties to exercise restraint and seek solution through dialogue. At the same time, the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Iraq should be respected,” said the envoy. Läs artikel

All members of the Atlantic alliance stood behind the United States in the Middle East after it briefed NATO on its drone strike that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday.

“We are united in condemning Iran’s support of a variety of different terrorist groups,” Stoltenberg said. “At the meeting today, allies called for restraint and de-escalation. A new conflict would be in no one’s interest. So Iran must refrain from further violence and provocations.”

Despite anger last year among European NATO allies over U.S. strategy in the Middle East under President Donald Trump, two diplomats present confirmed that the two-hour meeting at NATO headquarters went smoothly.

They said that no envoy challenged U.S. State Department and Department of Defense officials, who briefed via video conference, over the merits of Friday’s drone strike. Läs artikel