På söndag morgon inleddes en större fångutväxling i östra Ukraina. Utväxlingen sker enligt modellen ”alla mot alla” som Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskij och Rysslands president Vladimir Putin kom överens om under ett möte i Paris tidigare i december.

Presidenterna Zelenskij och Putin kom överens om fångutväxlingen då den så kallade Normandiegruppens statschefer samlades i Paris den 10 december. Enligt överenskommelsen skulle utväxlingen ske före slutet av december. […]

Inför utväxlingen uppgav separatistkällor att totalt 142 fångar skulle friges på söndagen. De proryska separatisterna skulle släppa 55 fångar och den ukrainska regeringen 87 fångar. Läs artikel

As the joint maritime maneuvers, involving the Russian, Chinese and Iranian Navies, enter their second day in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman, experts underline the significance of such drills in securing international trade routes in strategic waterways.[…]

The joint maneuvers with China and Russia can be considered as one of the greatest achievements of Iran’s defense diplomacy, sending messages to the West amid US efforts to woo countries into a maritime coalition for patrols in the Persian Gulf.

Dr. Bilgehan Alagoz, an international relations professor at Istanbul Marmara University says, “I think the main goal of the US maximum pressure policy on Iran is to contain China’s emerging power in World politics and to limit Russia’s influence in the Middle East.  Because China relies on Iran to diversify its energy supply and Russia is dependent on Iran to penetrate in the Middle East. In this context, the four-day exercise in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman aims to cope with the US policy of containment.”Läs artikel

Ryssland säger sig ha skapat ett vapen som kan flyga 27 gånger snabbare än ljudet. Vapnet ska placeras på en interkontinental missil för att sedan röra sig på ett sätt som gör det mycket svårt att skjuta ner. […]

På fredagen presenterade Rysslands försvarsminister Sergej Shoigu ännu ett vapen som också det har lyfts fram som ett nytt supervapen.

Vapnet är tänkt att placeras på toppen av en interkontinental missil, som alltså kan nå USA och andra länder, och när det avfyras ska kunna röra sig på ett oberäkneligt sätt för att undvika motståndarens vapen.

”Avangard”, som vapnet kallas, kan röra sig 27 gånger så snabbt som ljudet och ska kunna göra hastiga girar och kursändringar, skriver nyhetsbyrån AP. Med sig har det kärnvapen med sprängkraften två megaton. Läs artikel

[…] Hva ville skjedd hvis en regjering la frem en langsiktig helse- eller veiplan med en lett gjennomskuelig feilmargin på mer enn 120 milliarder? Det ville kanskje blitt litt bråk i mediene og på Stortinget? Men ikke da NATOs nåværende generalsekretær, som statsminister for 11 år siden, la frem en slik plan. Det til tross for at det alt da var klart at 50 F-35 supermaktskampfly ville påtvinge oss nevnte budsjettstruktur, NATOs skjeveste. […]

Igjen: Hva er grunnen? Sverige har småstatsforsvarsjageren Gripen, med driftskostnader på ca. 15 prosent av F-35. De får råd til dobbelt så mange fly som oss og samtidig penger til andre tiltak vi ikke makter.

Vi samarbeider med Nederland, Belgia og Danmark om kampfly av typen F-16. Alle anskaffer F-35. Men legger vi NATOs toprosentsmål til grunn, satser Norge dobbelt så mye på flyet som gjennomsnittet for de andre. De går heller ikke for supermaktsovervåkningsflyet Poseidon. Läs artikel

Regeringen vill ha drygt 1 000 färre heltidsanställda soldater än Försvarsmakten, skriver Svenska Dagbladet.

I regleringsbrevet för 2020 är gränsen för antalet heltidsanställda soldater 5 700 – att jämföra med Försvarsmaktens egen rekommenderade nivå på 6 750.

”I avvaktan på ny försvarspolitisk proposition 2021–25 får antalet anställda GSS/K (kontinuerligt anställda gruppbefäl, soldater och sjömän) inte nämnvärt överstiga 5 700”, står det i regleringsbrevet från regeringssammanträdet före julhelgen. Läs artikel

China, Iran and Russia will hold joint naval drills starting on Friday in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman, China’s defense ministry said on Thursday, amid heightened tension in the region between Iran and the United States. […]

The Gulf of Oman is a particularly sensitive waterway as it connects to the Strait of Hormuz – through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes – which in turn connects to the Gulf.

The drills are also coming at a time of fraught tensions between the United States and Iran. Läs artikel

Andrei Martyanov’s latest book provides unceasing evidence about the kind of lethality waiting for U.S. forces in a possible, future war against real armies (not the Taliban or Saddam Hussein’s).

Once in a blue moon an indispensable book comes out making a clear case for sanity in what is now a post-MAD world. That’s the responsibility carried by “The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs,” by Andrei Martyanov (Clarity Press), arguably the most important book of 2019.

Martyanov is the total package — and he comes with extra special attributes as a top-flight Russian military analyst, born in Baku in those Back in the U.S.S.R. days, living and working in the U.S., and writing and blogging in English.

Right from the start, Martyanov wastes no time destroying not only Fukuyama’s and Huntington’s ravings but especially Graham Allison’s childish and meaningless Thucydides Trap argument — as if the power equation between the U.S. and China in the 21^stcentury could be easily interpreted in parallel to Athens and Sparta slouching towards the Peloponnesian War over 2,400 years ago. What next? Xi Jinping as the new Genghis Khan? Läs artikel

In this autobiographical essay, I narrate my experience of being positioned in public as naive in my profession and a traitor to my country after publishing an op-ed in Sweden’s largest daily newspaper, in which I argued that Sweden should not join NATO — the transatlantic military alliance. Some of the negative reactions came from within my own workplace.

I had just been promoted to Professor at the Swedish Defence University and colleagues thought I had also betrayed them and the university by publishing the piece. In this essay, I disclose some of the reactions I encountered but, more importantly, I try to understand the effect they had on me, recounting my own inner dialogue of shame and resistance. At times I worried that I lacked expertise or even secretly harboured an affinity with the country that is now seen to motivate a Swedish NATO membership — i.e. Russia. At other times, I tried to turn the tables on the stigmatisers, claiming that it was they who had to change. While I work in a highly militarised environment, I think the fear of social death and professional shame I explore in this essay has broader resonance. Läs artikel

As our debacles in Vietnam and Iraq demonstrate, expert consensus is not always a recipe for success. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that American policy toward Ukraine has also been steeped in illusions.

The war between Ukraine, Russia and Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s Donbass region has reached its sixth year. So far, it has claimed some thirteen thousand lives and displaced millions of people. It threatens to create an unstable line of long-term confrontation between Russia and the West dividing the heart of central Europe, or even spiral into a broader conflict. With so much at stake, are American government experts on Ukraine vigorously debating how to handle this daunting challenge more effectively? Not a chance. Läs artikel