Introduktion:

Professor John J. Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, har vi på sajten uppmärksammat bland annat här . Han har nu i en debatt om hans bok informerat om att för att få en full bild av hans synsätt, bör man även läsa hans artikel Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order i International Security, 2019 nr. 4., s. 7-50. Genom att artikel är i public domain kan vi återge denna viktiga artikel här

Utdrag ur artikeln:

[…] What about Russia? It is certainly a great power, which is why the emerging world is multipolar, not bipolar. But it will be by far the weakest of the three great powers for the foreseeable future, unless either the U.S. or Chinese economy encounters major long-term problems. The key question regarding Russia is: Which side, if any, will it take in the U.S.-China rivalry? Although Russia is now aligned with China, it is likely to switch sides over time and ally with the United States, simply because an increasingly powerful China is the greater threat to Russia, given their geographical proximity. Should Moscow and Washington forge closer relations because of their mutual fear of China, Russia will be loosely integrated into the U.S.-led bounded order. Should Moscow continue to have friendly relations with Beijing because it fears the United States more than it does China, Russia will be loosely integrated into the China-led bounded order. It is possible that Russia will try not to align itself with either side and remain on the sidelines.

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Forsvarsekspert og forsker Ståle Ulriksen ved Sjøkrigsskolen mener situasjonen i nord er alvorlig og krevende. Han mener regjeringen snarest må avklare om russiske spesialstyrker har operert på Svalbard og på fastlands-Norge.

Regulære, russiske spesialstyrker har de siste dagene tatt seg inn på norsk territorium på Svalbard. Det opplyser norske og allierte forsvars- og etterretningskilder til Aldrimer.no fredag. Den alvorlige krenkelsen av norsk territorium er dokumentert gjennom etterretning som blant annet er innhentet av amerikanske spionfly i nord. Ifølge kildene har russiske styrker også gjennomført rekognosering på fastlands-Norge. […]

Ifølge Ulriksen skyldes den økende spenningen i nord at Norge på viktige områder har fått en redusert nasjonal forsvarsevne og en svekket evne til å overvåke hva som faktisk skjer i nord. Dette gjør at Norge må be allierte om hjelp, og noen av de allierte deployeringene tvinger i sin tur fram russiske reaksjoner.

– Hvis du sitter i Murmansk og ser at det amerikanske hangarskipet USS Harry S. Truman kommer opp og legger seg bak Lofotveggen, da fører jo det til en motreaksjon. Det er nesten en blåkopi av USAs maritime strategi på 1980-tallet, da planen var å angripe Kola-halvøya for å lette trykket på fronten i Tyskland. Dette må russerne være i stand til å svare på. For å få det til må de må legge en plan for ikke nødvendigvis okkupere Norge men for å kunne sikre seg tilgang til enkelte punkter de kan forsvare seg fra, sier Ulriksen. Läs artikel

TPNW kommer inte att avskaffa ett enda kärnvapen. De stater som äger kärnvapen struntar i förbudet som de inte varit med om att förhandla.

Members of national and regional parliaments of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Russia as well as Sápmi gathered last week in Haparanda, Sweden, to discuss transport infrastructure and connectivity in the Barents region. […]

In regards to the Barents region, cooperation with Russia has proved to be one of the most fruitful and concrete in addressing cross-border mobility issues.

Olga Epifanova, the Deputy Chair of the State Duma, noted that “integrated international transport corridor is the key to the complex development of the Northern Sea Route and the Barents region”. Keeping in mind that the NSR is expected to cater for 80 billion tons of cargos by 2024, coordinated operation of the cross-border transport network in the North becomes especially crucial for the future of the global market. She stressed that Russia is now working on the Murmansk transport nexus and “will do everything to attract as many partners as possible” in its infrastructure-building projects along the NSR. […]

The prospects of the railway traffic along the so-called New Silk Road with the cities of Xi’an, Kouvola, Haparanda and Narvik as main nexus points sparked particular interest in the twin-city of Haparanda/Tornio. Just as for China and its underdeveloped western region, the Swedish county of Norrbotten sees enormous opportunities for both regional and global development in this initiative.   Läs artikel

Over 3,000 troops and 200 vehicles from 12 NATO Allies¹ are taking part in exercise Silver Arrow in Latvia this week. The multinational exercise, which wraps up on 3 October, provides an opportunity for forces to enhance their readiness, and train with one of four NATO battlegroups in the region.

NATO’s battlegroup in Latvia is composed of around 1,000 troops from Albania, Canada, Czech Republic, Italy, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Exercise Silver Arrow is designed to test the battlegroup’s ability to plan and conduct operations with the Latvian Mechanized Infantry Brigade. Läs artikel

Jacques Chirac, who died on Thursday at the age of 86, was a charismatic giant of French post-war politics whose popular touch gave him enduring appeal to voters, even after a conviction for graft.

Twice elected head of state in 1995 and 2002, his 12 years in the Elysee Palace made him France’s second longest-serving president after his Socialist predecessor Francois Mitterrand.

On the international stage, Chirac helped spearhead opposition to the US-lead invasion of Iraq in 2003 — a stance which angered the United States.

What are the founding principles of U.S. foreign policy? Was the U.S. ever isolationist as mainstream diplomatic history claims? And what about Donald Trump’s foreign policy? Is he a normal foreign policy president? Is he in favor of U.S. global expansion? Is China emerging as the new global empire? Andrew Bacevich, Professor Emeritus of International Relations and History at Boston University and now president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft tackles the above questions in the interview below. […]

Does Donald Trump have a consistent foreign policy? Is there such a thing as a Trump Doctrine? No, he does not. Understand that the very notion of principles is alien to Trump’s make-up. He is, therefore, incapable acting in a consistent fashion pursuant to some larger sense of purpose. So he makes things up as he goes along. He specializes in showmanship not statecraft. Trump has said repeatedly that he is not in favor of wars, yet he is clearly a militarist and the military budget continues to receive large yearly increases (the United States spends more than twice as much on its military as China and Russia combined), although, as you have pointed out before, the US has yet to win its first war in the twentieth-first century. Can you shed some light into what’s going on here? I wouldn’t call him a militarist. Again, militarists actually believe something. They fancy that through war, a nation can fulfill its destiny and a people can purify themselves while cultivating an identifiable set of virtues. Trump believes no such things. Läs artikel

[…] Relations between nuclear-armed States are mired in mistrust. Dangerous rhetoric about the utility of nuclear weapons is on the rise. A qualitative nuclear arms race is underway. The painstakingly constructed arms control regime is fraying. Divisions over the pace and scale of disarmament are growing.

I worry that we are slipping back into bad habits that will once again hold the entire world hostage to the threat of nuclear annihilation. With last month’s expiration of the landmark Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty – or INF, the world lost an invaluable brake on nuclear war. I strongly encourage the United States and the Russian Federation to extend the so-called ’New Start’ agreement to provide stability and the time to negotiate future arms control measures. I also repeat my call on all State Parties to work together for a successful 2020 Review of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. […]

I also call on those States possessing nuclear weapons to engage in the urgent dialogue needed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and agree on near-term practical steps in nuclear disarmament. Nuclear weapons present an unacceptable danger to humanity. The only real way to eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons is to eliminate nuclear weapons. Läs talet

Trumps flåsete utspill om å kjøpe Grønland er en distraksjon fra en president under press. Men det er også et tegn på det strategiske kappløpet som foregår i Arktis, hvor Norge står midt mellom stormaktene.[…]

Der hvor Trump og andre statsledere kan velge å bruke makt og konkurranse som virkemidler i sin utenrikspolitikk, har ikke Norge noe valg. Som et lite land er vi avhengige av internasjonalt samarbeid og at folkeretten respekteres. Men Norge kan bruke sin posisjon – slik det ble gjort da det regionale samarbeidsforumet Arktisk Råd valgte Tromsø som lokasjon for sitt sekretariat – til å fremme løsninger som ganger oss i Arktis. Uavhengig av hvem som styrer skuta, må Norges politikere fortsette å søke pragmatisk samarbeid i nordområdene der det er mulig. Kanskje burde Norge bruke sin spesielle posisjon ytterligere for å fremme nye arenaer for dialog og roe gemyttene, neste gang en president kommer med flåsete utspill om nordområdene? Läs artikel