This compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by George F. Kennan is part of Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” rubric, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself and America’s policies toward this country.

U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

New and original Cold Wars:

• The military policies and even more the rhetoric of these two great countries are on a collision course, and I feel quite helpless in the face of this situation. About the Soviet Union, I can do nothing. These people have indulged themselves for 60 years in the habit of polemical exaggeration and distortion. It is as Russian as boiled cabbage and buckwheat kasha. But what about my own government and its state of blind militaristic hysteria? It has not only convinced itself of the reality of its own bad dreams, but it has succeeded in half-convincing most of our allies, and that to such an extent that anyone who challenges that view of the world appears to them as dangerously subversive. … Our respective views of reality are simply incompatible.” (Entry dated 04.16.81, “The Kennan Diaries,” 2014)
• [T]he lone battle I was waging in those years [1948-1958]—a battle against the almost total militarization of Western policy towards Russia—was one which, had my efforts been successful, would have, or could have, obviated the vast expenses, dangers and distortions of outlook of the ensuing Cold War. (Entry dated 05.02.00, “The Kennan Diaries,” 2014) [….]
• On NATO expansion: The view, bluntly stated, is that expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking … Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the Cold War to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking. And, last but not least, it might make it much more difficult, if not impossible, to secure the Russian Duma’s ratification of the START II agreement and to achieve further reductions of nuclear weaponry. (New York Times, 02.05.97)
• On rationale of NATO expansion: Why, with all the hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the Cold War, should East-West relations become centered on the question of who would be allied with whom and, by implication, against whom in some fanciful, totally unforeseeable and most improbable future military conflict? (New York Times, 02.05.97) Läs artikel

President Stubb träffade pressen på tisdag eftermiddag i Mariehamn. Han fick bland annat frågor om sin syn på Ålands status som en demilitariserad zon.

– Vi ser inte Ålands demilitarisering som ett problem, varken ur ett säkerhetsperspektiv eller ur ett institutionellt perspektiv. Om demilitariseringen hade varit ett problem skulle vi ha haft ett problem då vi förhandlade om vårt medlemskap i Nato, svarade Stubb.

Den svenske generalmajoren och försvarsdebattören Karlis Neretnieks hade i en intervju för Nya Åland beskrivit demilitariseringen som problematisk ur både svensk och finländsk synvinkel.

Stubb framhöll att han under de senaste månaderna redan hunnit bekanta sig ”med de planer och den infrastruktur som vi har för Ålands säkerhet som ett demilitariserat område”, som han formulerade det.

– Jag sover nog mina nätter kanske bättre än denna pensionerade svenske general, sade Stubb. Läs artikel

Som et resultat av nordisk samarbeid har Bane NOR inngått en avtale med Forsvaret og den svenske Försvarsmakten. Dette gjør det mulig for alle tre partene å anskaffe jernbanevogner gjennom samme avtale. […]

Avtalen er et direkte resultat av Bane NORs rolle i totalforsvaret og det gode nordiske samarbeidet om samfunnssikkerhet og transportberedskap. Avtalen innebærer en betydelig forbedring av kapasitet for militær transport på jernbanen både i Norge og Sverige, mellom landene, og til andre land i Europa, sier Thor Gjermund Eriksen, konsernsjef i Bane NOR. Läs artikel

Utgivarna, två reportrar liksom meddelaren döms till tre års fängelse för bland annat grov obehörig befattning med hemlig uppgift. Domstolen anser att brottet är allvarligt och beslutar att dra in TV4:s sändningstillstånd, vilket gör att kanalen går i konkurs. Medhjälparen som möjliggjort publiceringen rannsakas av en amerikansk militärdomstol. […]

Ovanstående synnerligen komprimerade scenario kommer aldrig att inträffa. I varje fall inte i sin helhet. Det ska ses som ett försök att konkretisera de möjliga följder av några av de lag- och grundlagsändringar som genomförts sedan 2015 och de förslag som nu bereds. Underlagen är beställningsverk, och ofta framtagna under tidspress av lojala ensamutredare.

Inskränkningarna har var för sig ägnats ett förstrött intresse. Ytterst få ser skogen för alla träd och att deras samlade effekt blir förödande för det som definierar den svenska demokratin: den fria åsiktsbildningen. Inte nödvändigtvis genom att bestämmelserna används utan för att de verkar som ett damoklessvärd. Läs artikel

Turkey is fully committed to its responsibilities to NATO, its defence minister told Reuters, amid concern amongst some Western allies that Ankara may be tilting away from the West.

Last month, President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey wants to be a partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – a security, political and economic club launched in 2001 by Russia, China and Central Asian states as a counterweight to Western alliances.

Defence Minister Yasar Guler said in a written interview that Turkey’s membership of NATO does not prevent it from developing relations with the SCO.

”Apart from that, our priority is to fulfil our responsibilities to NATO as an important ally and to strengthen the solidarity with our allies. Our focus should be that NATO is prepared, determined and strong,” he added.

Ankara’s interest in the BRICS group of nations and its friendly ties with Russia, namely in energy, tourism and defence, have stirred fears among Western nations that Turkey’s alliances may be pivoting. However, Ankara has repeatedly said it remains a committed NATO ally. Läs artikel

24. juli 2024 udgav det amerikanske forsvarsministerie (US Department of Defense, DoD) sin længe ventede nye arktiske strategi.

Strategien er bemærkelsesværdig, fordi den sætter samarbejde med allierede i højsædet og understreger nogle konkrete muligheder for Danmark.

Særligt fire geopolitiske ændringer i og omkring Arktis gjorde det nødvendigt at erstatte den tidligere strategi fra 2019: Ruslands storstilede angreb på Ukraine i 2022, Finland og Sveriges tiltrædelse i Nato, stigende samarbejde mellem Kina og Rusland, samt tiltagende konsekvenser af klimaforandringerne.

Den nye strategi lægger sig op ad den amerikanske nationale sikkerhedsstrategi og den nationale arktiske strategi, begge fra 2022, og bruger slagordet ”overvåg-og-reager” fra den nationale forsvarsstrategi fra 2022 som ledestjerne i den nye tilgang til Arktis.

Strategiens mål er, at ”DoD, i samarbejde med vores allierede og partnere, bevarer Arktis som en stabil region, hvor U.S. hjemlandet forbliver sikkert, og vitale nationale interesser varetages”. Dette skal opnås igennem tiltag indenfor tre indsatsområder: enhance, engage, og exercise (udbygge, engagere, og øve). Läs artikel

An interesting new article in the prominent American journal, “Foreign Affairs”, by three academics from Georgetown University, argues that “Washington should place less emphasis on slowing down China and more on improving its own innovative prowess.”

The authors stress how, with the most advanced chip-making, the quest is to secure yet higher operational speed using still less energy. Meanwhile, much can be achieved using tag-team-chips, where multiple less powerful chips, known as chiplets can form a single, higher-performing package. Other related strategies can also be used.

China is making effective use of these and other approaches as it works around the stated objective of US chip export controls, which are aimed, it is said, at: denying China the cutting-edge AI capabilities it could use to modernize its nuclear and conventional weapons. Although this is meant to be the laser-focus of US containment strategies, in fact, slowing China’s general high-tech development, is central to America maintaining its competitive economic advantage, according to US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan.

The writers also argue that this fundamental emphasis on export controls is suppressing US high-tech access to the massive, rapidly advancing Chinese market, thus denying serious income to that sector, while redirecting a large segment from the huge pool of Chinese spending power towards boosting Chinese chip development. Läs artikel

A memorandum of understanding on science and technology cooperation was renewed by the National Science and Technology Council and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (SSF) July 4 in Taipei City.

The new pact was signed by Yeh Chih-cheng, director general of NSTC’s Department of International Cooperation and Science Education, and SSF CEO Lars Hultman, with NSTC Deputy Minister Chen Bing-yu witnessing the event. It will help further strengthen academic and technological sector bonds while advancing research collaboration and personnel exchanges, the NSTC said.

During the ceremony, Chen said that Sweden is one of the top innovative countries globally, adding that its outstanding sustainability practices are especially worthwhile for Taiwan to emulate. Läs artikel

China on Friday initiated dispute settlement proceedings against the EU’s provisional anti-subsidy measures against Chinese EVs at the WTO to safeguard the interests of its electric vehicle industry’s development and global green transition cooperation.

The findings in the EU’s preliminary ruling lack factual and legal basis, seriously violate WTO rules, and jeopardize the overall situation of global cooperation in addressing climate change. We urge the EU to immediately rectify its wrong practices and jointly safeguard China-EU economic and trade cooperation and the stability of the EV industry and supply chains. Läs artikel

Hundratusentals är de värnpliktiga som på slingrande grusvägar har hatat och älskat svensk arméns cyklar – som sades kunna klara en granatträff.
Militärcyklarna är sedan länge borta från Försvarsmakten, men fortfarande rullar hundratals exemplar i civilt bruk på svenska vägar.

Cykeln började användas av arméer runt om i världen i slutet av 1800-talet. Sverige fick sitt första cykelinfanteri år 1901. Från år 1901 och fram till 1977 utvecklade den svenska försvarsmakten flera numera klassiska modeller. Mest känd är modell 42 (m/42) som såg dagens ljus under andra världskriget och som idag har kultstatus. […]

Införandet av cykel i det svenska försvaret innebar en strategisk revolution för infanteriet. Med cykel kunde trupp röra sig dubbelt så snabbt, än till fots. Hastigheten, smidigheten och ljudlösheten var stora strategiska fördelar. Cyklar behövde dessutom inte bränsle, vilket i sin tur innebar att man slapp krävande försörjningslinjer. Läs artikel