NATO’s secretary general has rejected Poland’s proposal that it could shoot down Russian missiles that are over Ukraine but heading towards Polish territory. This would risk NATO “becoming part of the conflict”, says Jens Stoltenberg.

The idea was included last week in a security agreement between Poland and Ukraine signed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw.

The two countries pledged to bilaterally and with other allies “examine the rationale and feasibility of possible intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] fired in the direction of the territory of Poland”. […]

Tusk emphasised that such a policy would only be introduced with “the stamp of approval of the international community, preferably NATO”. However, when asked about the idea by Ukrainian media outlets on Sunday, Stoltenberg responded negatively.

“NATO’s policy is unchanged: we will not be involved in this conflict. We will not become part of the conflict,” he said. “We support Ukraine in the destruction of Russian aircraft, but NATO will not be directly involved.” Läs artikel

Mycket tidigt denna morgon bär det nu tillbaka till Europa efter tre dagar i ett Indien i mycket snabb och imponerande utveckling.

Ambitionen är det inget fel på. Man talar ständigt om att gå från världens femte största ekonomi i dag till dess tredje största om ett par decenniet, och lyckas man hålla nuvarande tillväxt är det en fullt realistisk ambition. […]

Nato-toppmötet i Washington avlöpte utan nämnvärda överraskningar. Men två formuleringar i den avslutande kommunikén avvek lite från det normala.

En var att man sade att Kina var en ”decisive enabler” av den ryska aggressionen mot Ukraina.

Det kan sägas, men det skall då samtidigt noteras att medan det förvisso är den ryska exporten av olja som håller upp den ryska ekonomin och därmed finansierar kriget går kring 80% av denna till Kina och Indien med liten skillnad mellan de två.

Den indiska importen av olja från Ryssland har mer än tiodubblats sedan kriget inleddes.

Och ser man på de nytillverkade kryssningsrobotar som anfaller Ukraina visar det sig att nyckelkomponemterna fortfarande till större delen kommer från USA. Dessas vägar in i Ryssland har dock sannolikt varit komplicerade. Läs artikel

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s joint declaration issued Wednesday in Washington signaled a change from the Western military alliance’s traditional focus on Russia with its rare open rebuke of China, calling it a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The rhetoric comes at a time when NATO declared its bid to bolster cooperation with its so-called “Indo-Pacific 4” partners — namely South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand — in their latest summit, inviting these four countries’ heads of state to the summit for a third consecutive year and institutionalizing its cooperation with these countries to support Ukraine. NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners also collected their voices against military ties between Russia and North Korea.

But there are doubts whether NATO’s like-minded Indo-Pacific partner countries neighboring China, like South Korea, could keep pace with NATO’s pressure campaign against China given the geopolitical complexities that often left them mired in strategic dilemmas between the world’s two superpowers of the United States and China.

Experts caution that South Korea could face increasing pressure from China, given its trade dependence on the Asian superpower, which accounts for roughly 20 percent of its total exports. This pressure is particularly concerning as Seoul seeks to mend relations with Beijing, strained since 2016. South Korea’s decision to allow the deployment of the US anti-missile system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, damaged bilateral ties, with China imposing economic coercion on Korean businesses. This made it also challenging for Seoul to manage Pyongyang with its previous strategy of boasting strengthened ties with Beijing. Läs artikel

[…] The real absurdity of the present NATO summit in Washington, however, is that a strategy aimed at Russia, which according to Kennan would guarantee direct military confrontation and increase the risk of world war dramatically, is now being globalized and turned against China. NATO is to become a global power formally, and, at least from Beijing’s perspective, aims to advance on China. For the time being, NATO will operate on the basis of bilateral treaties in the Pacific, but the goal appears to be an expansion of the military pact throughout the region, so that it will exist as a “North Atlantic” alliance in name alone. […]

A sane foreign policy is imperative now, perhaps more than ever; even a return to a Kennedy or a Kennan would be an improvement. One thing is quite clear: through their strategy of escalation and expansion, the US and NATO are forcing an increasing number of states together as an opposition, in a development stemming from a reversal of American policy dating from the 1970s, which had recognized Beijing’s own security interests. Arresting the escalating global confrontation requires at the very least an immediate end to the war in Ukraine, a freeze on NATO expansion, and finally negotiations among the major powers to guarantee the security of all parties.Läs artikel

The Ukrainian government continues negotiations with Sweden about the prospects of the Ukrainian Air Force eventually receiving the Gripen, a multirole fighter awaited since 2023.[…]

Ukraine remains interested in acquiring Swedish JAS 39 Gripen 4+ generation multirole fighters, as reiterated by Ihor Zhovkva, the Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office. This statement comes despite recent claims from the Swedish side that the transfer of these fighters had been paused at Ukraine’s request. […]

That said, regardless of which side decided to pause the transfer of Gripen, the important part is that Kyiv and Stockholm remain in discussions on this matter, with both sides expressing readiness to advance this plan. Given Ukraine’s stated need for 128 fighter jets to reach minimum parity with russia, it is clear that F-16s alone will not suffice. Läs artikel

[…] Alarmingly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described Nato as playing a “bridge” between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific theatres.

That’s the new mandate Washington has handed to Nato. But why? The US already has more naval power in the Pacific than anywhere else. Well, Nato and a handful of Asian allies will help save appearance and legitimise plain old American neo-imperialism.

That’s why Western pundits and politicians are claiming Vladimir Putin has set his sights on Nato countries like Poland and beyond, while China wants to take over the Indo-Pacific.

When there is no demand for your service, you have to create it; hence Nato’s constant threat inflation and threat creation. But has it crossed Blinken’s mind that most of Asia, including the Indian subcontinent, don’t want Nato militarism to infect their parts of the world like the plague? Läs artikel

[…] And in terms of Russian sabotage attacks?

There are reports that Sweden has also been mentioned in these plannings. We have confirmed that we have seen it. No activities have been conducted. But we are well aware that Sweden is a potential target for that kind of sabotage activity.

Could something like that rise to the level of invoking Article 5 of the NATO treaty, asking allies to come to your defense?

Could something like that rise to the level of invoking Article 5 of the NATO treaty, asking allies to come to your defense?

I don’t think anybody knows yet. There are interesting discussions going on. Article 5 was created for a situation where you really know it: Now it’s war, now it’s not war. I think this is an ongoing discussion in NATO right now: How to handle these grey zones between real peace and real conflict.

You have no clear understanding of where to draw that line?

I don’t think any country really has that any longer.[…]

Like China.

Yes, China. We need to realize the global security situation is much broader today. You simply can’t say the Pacific does not concern us [in Europe]. For reasons of principles, and for U.S. reasons, Europe needs to be more committed to the Pacific. That’s at least been my preaching. Läs intervjun

Ungerns premiärminister Viktor Orbán fortsatte i dag sin så kallade fredsturné som har väckt stor kritik. Resan inleddes i Kiev, fortsatte sedan till Moskva och gick därifrån vidare till Beijing.

Orbán gjorde sedan en mellanlandning i Washington DC där han deltog i Natos toppmöte och reste direkt därifrån till Florida, där han i går träffade presidentkandidat Donald Trump.

Om det blir ett sjätte stopp på turnén återstår att se.

– Vart åker han i morgon? Jag vet inte. Kanske han kommer till Ukraina igen, sa Zelenskyj då han kommenterade Orbáns planer.

Orbán var fåordig då han kommenterade mötet, eller fredsuppdrag 5.0, som han själv kallar det.

– President Trump bevisade under sitt presidentskap att han är en fredens man. Han kommer att göra det igen! Läs artikel

[…] While underlining the size of the coalition he mustered to support Ukraine, he noted that there were limits on the escalatory capabilities he would give to Kiev, ruling out the use of American weapons for strikes into Russian territory. “If he could strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, does that make sense? It doesn’t,” Biden said. Läs artikel

Sverige går in i en koalition tillsammans med elva andra länder, som genom gemensamma upphandlingar ska stödja Ukrainas försvarsmakt med obemannade flygfarkoster – drönare. Utbildning i systemen kan också komma att ingå.