The report Navigating Breakup: Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic is an input to the Arctic Security Roundtable (ASR) and the Munich Security Conference in February 2023. It provides insights into both established and novel drivers of change in Arctic and security governance. Chapters cover the impacts of climate change on the physical environment, human security and the Arctic region’s military operational environment, and review the regional security policies of the three major powers (USA, China and Russia). […]
Ensure firm and clearly signalled deterrence: In a political environment marked by fundamental differences in values and perspectives regarding the international security order, states responsible for Arctic activity must find ways to reduce the risk of incidents and misunderstandings. This applies particularly to military activity. Measures to address these challenges must be reciprocal and carefully tailored to specific needs and requirements. Given the reduction of diplomatic contact with Russia in the Arctic, the burden of signalling now lies even more squarely in the military/security sphere. Deterrence must be firm but balanced, aimed at sending a signal of commitment and resolve rather than aggression. When Sweden and Finland eventually join NATO, allied military activity in the region should continue to adopt a defensive posture. Deterrence through exercises, training and other activities must signal cohesion and credibility while also paying attention to Russian sensitivities regarding the country’s SSBNs and their supporting infrastructure. Läs rapporten