[…] Just 50% of the public now say they trust the United States. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told citizens that whilst he retained confidence in Finland’s most important ally, he also acknowledged that the United States had changed. Just two years ago, Finland’s NATO accession had seemingly cracked its century-old dilemma of surviving next door to its former overlord and great power neighbour, Russia. Now, according to an unconfirmed newspaper report, Finland has begun exploring a Plan B in case NATO’s Article 5 fails to function as intended.
This comment evaluates Helsinki’s options regarding its national security. We argue that a viable Plan B exists – the ‘Nordic Plus’ – but, like all European defence initiatives, it comes with uncertainties and cannot compensate for potential US disengagement. […]
For the next four years, the implementation of Article 5 relies on a somewhat whimsical American president who has on multiple public occasions expressed confidence in Russian president Vladimir Putin over America’s longstanding European allies.
Indeed, President Trump has noted that there is an ocean between America and Europe. Consequently, Russia’s territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe do not appear to pose a threat to the United States. […]
What would a possible Plan B look like? It can be summed up as ‘Nordic Plus’. NATO membership has unlocked significant new potential for military cooperation between Finland and its allies. In this context, Finnish leaders will likely turn to Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, and, potentially, France. Logistically, the Scandinavian countries play a crucial role in supplying Finland in the event of war, and Finland has been advocating for major improvements in Nordic connectivity and infrastructure. Moreover, these countries can potentially provide considerable military capabilities. For instance, together the countries have an air force of 200 modern fighter jets. However, as affluent nations, Norway and Sweden could still allocate significant additional societal resources to collective defence, such as considerably expanding the conscription system for force generation. […]
It is not inconceivable that Finnish skies could soon host training missions by nuclear-capable French fighter jets if Paris is truly prepared to introduce a European dimension to its nuclear deterrence. […]
Despite the lingering mistrust towards the United States, Finnish decision makers will strive to keep the transatlantic flame alive. Finland will do everything it can to present itself as a helpful partner to President Trump and thus avoid direct rupture in the transatlantic linkage. […]
Though Finland is likely increasingly focused on a Plan B of fostering collective European deterrence, it will continue to extend its hand to America and, if other attempts fail, prepare ground for a possible exploration of détente with Russia. Läs artikel