In Finland, NATO has not revealed which countries will be tasked to contribute to a forward presence or to reinforcements. As Finland, with a good margin, would be able to mobilise at least two mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade within 30 days, the division requirement is probably already filled. Together, the US, Norway, and Sweden would likely be able to provide rapid reinforcements consisting of at least one brigade. However, it is worth remembering that Sweden is also required to reinforce Latvia, that Norway only has one mechanised battalion available within 30 days, and that the US has other commitments across the Euro-Atlantic area.
Whether and how NATO planners have resolved this is naturally excluded from public view. The 2018 NRI ( NATO Readiness Initiative) required the Alliance to have 30 mechanised battalions ready within 30 days in 2020. Our assessment suggests that the 12 assessed allies, relevant for deterrence and defence in Northern Europe, could assemble approximately 27 battalions after subtracting the US, Swedish, and Finnish contributions (as they were not counted in the 2018 NRI). Assuming other allies would be able to provide a few battalions, this means that NATO may fulfil the 2018 readiness requirement, but around 4 years after its due date and in a worsened security situation. On burden sharing, our assessment suggests that the US provides approximately 45 percent (37 out of 83) of the mechanised and infantry battalions. The Alliance thus appears to fulfil its formal NDPP-related burden-sharing requirement in the land domain, at least for Tier 1 and 2 land forces. Läs rapporten