[…] All of this greatly complicates Russian strategy vis-à-vis NATO. With Sweden and Finland members of the alliance, Russia will have no choice but to devote more attention than it has in the recent past to its northwestern flank. The Nordic region abuts Russia’s Kola peninsula — a slender salient of land where Russia keeps the headquarters of its northern fleet and a large portion of its nuclear arsenal. As long as Finland and Sweden were not members of NATO, Russia could safely divert attention away from this crucial region. That, in turn, enabled it to prioritize military resources for its southwestern flank to support the aggressive drive into Ukraine.
NATO’s Nordic expansion will make this a lot more difficult in the future. Going forward, Russian leaders will have to take stock of their position in the north when contemplating major moves in the south. This is valuable since a major point of strategy is to force your opponent to rethink his preferred strategy. This is true not only with respect to the Baltic but also the Arctic. Seven of the eight members of the Arctic Council are now members of NATO. Going forward, Russia is likely to find it much harder to stealthily militarize this region.
This episode is likely to have two effects inside NATO. First and most obviously, it could generate lingering distrust toward Turkey and Hungary by other allies. Second, and more seriously, it raises questions about NATO’s political cohesion in a time of crisis. Sweden didn’t make its appeal to join the alliance in a quiet stretch of history; it did so against the backdrop of a major land war and Swedish concerns about an eventual attack on itself by Russia. Many allies may look at its experience and wonder whether a similar situation could occur during an Article 5 crisis in which a member of the alliance is attacked. If that happened, NATO could find itself unable to act due to the stonewalling of one or two members who are determined to extract a national benefit out of the situation. By the time their concerns were satisfied, the damage to Russia’s target and NATO’s credibility would already be done. Läs artikel