[…] Taken together, these challenges cast a long shadow over the future of the Atlantic Alliance. The U.S., the linchpin of NATO, is increasingly focused on the rise of China and the complex security challenges of the Indo-Pacific region. This shift in focus could lead to a decreased American commitment to European security, further straining the Alliance’s cohesion.
In and of themselves, these challenges could well prove fatal to NATO. But I would argue that the inevitable demise of the Alliance has even deeper roots — roots having to do with the shift in polarity over the past decade or so.
NATO was conceived in a bipolar world to address the reality of superpower competition. The rigid alliance structure and focus on collective defense were well-suited to deterring Soviet aggression.
With the demise of the USSR in 1991, NATO adapted to the new realities of the so-called “unipolar moment.” The absence of a major peer competitor allowed the U.S. to maintain its dominant position within the Alliance, and NATO morphed into an instrument of American primacy.
But the unipolar moment has definitively passed and we have entered a new geopolitical era — one defined fundamentally by multipolarity. The rise of China, a resurgent Russia, a more assertive India and the rise of other regional powers has created a more complex, chaotic and competitive security environment. Läs artikel